2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

Agree. Or they decide to make a point of Illinois having the stronger schedule, especially in the non-con, and put them as the 2.
I mean maybe...but if they were using SOS as a big difference all season wouldn't have ILL been higher on the seed line in the reveal? And since then, their schedule has been pretty **** anyway so it wouldn't have changed much.
 
UNI is going to be a 12.

They are going to be evaluated as a 21-6 team due to the Tristan Smith injury. Totally different team with him available.
When the chairman was interviewed during bracket reveal, they take into account “availability.”
 
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The results since the reveal should factor only as a percentage of the full season. If we're back to last 10 games (or after some arbitrary date) as a criteria, then say so. Since that isn't an official data point, there shouldn't be any comparison of performance since the reveal.
 
Somewhat...but even the ones that 'know what they're doing' didn't have Iowa State as the 4th number 1 seed when the committee top 16 reveal came out.

I have no idea what the committee will do. We very well could be a 3 and if that's the case so be it.

Duke/Michigan/AZ/Florida = 1 seeds

Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Michigan State/Illinois = fighting for 2 seeds. I don't think anyone else has a 2 seed resume than those 5.

When the reveal was released on Feb. 21:
  • Iowa State 4
  • UCONN 5
  • Houston 6
  • Illinois 7
  • Michigan State 14
Since Feb. 21:
  • Iowa State: 2-3 with losses to AZ/BYU/Texas Tech and wins over Utah/ASU
  • UCONN: 3-1 with loss to Marquette and wins over SJU/Vill/SH
  • Houston: 3-2 with losses to AZ/KU and wins over OSU/Bay/Colo
  • Illinois: 2-2 with losses to UCLA/Mich and wins over Oregon/Maryland
  • Michigan State: 4-1 with loss to Mich and wins over OSU/Rut/Pur/Ind
Houston and UCONN and MSU are probably the top 2 seeds based on reveal ranking and results since then...I don't really agree with that, but I am assuming that's the committee's thoughts. So it's really between Illinois and ISU for the last 2 seed. Given our previous ranking of 4 and theirs of 7 and how the results are pretty similar of crappy wins over crappy teams and the fact while we have one more loss, our losses are 'better', I think we are still above them.

Now...I do also think it's splitting hairs...if it's ISU as 8 overall and Illinois 9 overall, the S curve would say we'd be in the same region. And if that's the case, I can see the committee pretty easily being able to flip flop the two teams based on how they do in their conference tourneys and whoever does better/has better wins gets the 2.
The bracketing is going to be interesting. Taking into account balances brackets and conference affiliation will be tough. Houston in the South is the easiest of all. If UCon is 5 or 6, they probably don't go east with Duke. If MSU and Illinois are 2 seeds, UConn will be Midwest because MSU and Illinois couldn't be with Michigan. Let's say MSU East and Illinois West.

If UConn is #5 or #6 and #8 goes West, that West bracket is looking pretty weak. If ISU is #9, they shouldn't go west or south. Midwest might be too strong in this case. #2, 6 and 9.

Becomes a lot simpler if you just drop UConn to #9.

Duke and MSU in East.
Michigan and Iowa State in MW
Florida and Houston in S
Arizona and Illinois in west
 
If Houston runs the table in the Big 12, Eye on Basketball from CBS, says that might bump Florida from number one seed. That is an interesting take.
 
It would be funny if both Texas and Iowa get left out. Small possibility, but still it’s possible.
 
Sorry for being late on these updates.

The second little girl isn't learning to sleep at night with aplomb like the first one.

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I think the #4 here is a bit ridiculous. I could see a #3 but a #4 is out of bounds.

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I know some of you think this projection is pessimistic, but I think it is at least realistic.

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Somewhat...but even the ones that 'know what they're doing' didn't have Iowa State as the 4th number 1 seed when the committee top 16 reveal came out.

I have no idea what the committee will do. We very well could be a 3 and if that's the case so be it.

Duke/Michigan/AZ/Florida = 1 seeds

Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Michigan State/Illinois = fighting for 2 seeds. I don't think anyone else has a 2 seed resume than those 5.

When the reveal was released on Feb. 21:
  • Iowa State 4
  • UCONN 5
  • Houston 6
  • Illinois 7
  • Michigan State 14
Since Feb. 21:
  • Iowa State: 2-3 with losses to AZ/BYU/Texas Tech and wins over Utah/ASU
  • UCONN: 3-1 with loss to Marquette and wins over SJU/Vill/SH
  • Houston: 3-2 with losses to AZ/KU and wins over OSU/Bay/Colo
  • Illinois: 2-2 with losses to UCLA/Mich and wins over Oregon/Maryland
  • Michigan State: 4-1 with loss to Mich and wins over OSU/Rut/Pur/Ind
Houston and UCONN and MSU are probably the top 2 seeds based on reveal ranking and results since then...I don't really agree with that, but I am assuming that's the committee's thoughts. So it's really between Illinois and ISU for the last 2 seed. Given our previous ranking of 4 and theirs of 7 and how the results are pretty similar of crappy wins over crappy teams and the fact while we have one more loss, our losses are 'better', I think we are still above them.

Now...I do also think it's splitting hairs...if it's ISU as 8 overall and Illinois 9 overall, the S curve would say we'd be in the same region. And if that's the case, I can see the committee pretty easily being able to flip flop the two teams based on how they do in their conference tourneys and whoever does better/has better wins gets the 2.

Might be one of those years where the conference tournament could mean something.
 
Sorry for being late on these updates.

The second little girl isn't learning to sleep at night with aplomb like the first one.

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I think the #4 here is a bit ridiculous. I could see a #3 but a #4 is out of bounds.

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I know some of you think this projection is pessimistic, but I think it is at least realistic.

View attachment 168667
And you know these things aren’t right as we certainly won’t be behind Purdue.
 
Sorry for being late on these updates.

The second little girl isn't learning to sleep at night with aplomb like the first one.


I think the #4 here is a bit ridiculous. I could see a #3 but a #4 is out of bounds.



I know some of you think this projection is pessimistic, but I think it is at least realistic.
Tucking in and taking care of those kids is much MUCH more important than this. Don't ever apologize for that. Enjoy the journey, and all the little moments as next thing you know they're 12!

I still appreciate reading your posts though;-)
 
If I recall majority of Matrix had ISU as a 2 seed at that time. I don't think it was the highest 2, either, but I can't swear by that. UConn and Houston were others in the vicinity.

That was prior to or in the midst of Houston dropping a few...further reason to see the early reveal as a good excitement/ratings generator and not much more with 3-4 weeks left before Selection Sunday.
 
That was prior to or in the midst of Houston dropping a few...further reason to see the early reveal as a good excitement/ratings generator and not much more with 3-4 weeks left before Selection Sunday.
It still creates a benchmark of the committee's assessment of the entire year up to that point, and the final couple weeks of game results should be viewed as adjustments to that.

Does our 2-3 record take us from 4th overall to 9th? Does Illinois' 2-2 record keep them at 8? Did Michigan State's 4-1 record take them from 14th overall to above ISU?
 
It still creates a benchmark of the committee's assessment of the entire year up to that point, and the final couple weeks of game results should be viewed as adjustments to that.

Does our 2-3 record take us from 4th overall to 9th? Does Illinois' 2-2 record keep them at 8? Did Michigan State's 4-1 record take them from 14th overall to above ISU?

I think they'd still bob and weave regardless of results.

It's fun to get the March Madness fix but imo about like the initial CFP rankings.