Somewhat...but even the ones that 'know what they're doing' didn't have Iowa State as the 4th number 1 seed when the committee top 16 reveal came out.
I have no idea what the committee will do. We very well could be a 3 and if that's the case so be it.
Duke/Michigan/AZ/Florida = 1 seeds
Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Michigan State/Illinois = fighting for 2 seeds. I don't think anyone else has a 2 seed resume than those 5.
When the reveal was released on Feb. 21:
- Iowa State 4
- UCONN 5
- Houston 6
- Illinois 7
- Michigan State 14
Since Feb. 21:
- Iowa State: 2-3 with losses to AZ/BYU/Texas Tech and wins over Utah/ASU
- UCONN: 3-1 with loss to Marquette and wins over SJU/Vill/SH
- Houston: 3-2 with losses to AZ/KU and wins over OSU/Bay/Colo
- Illinois: 2-2 with losses to UCLA/Mich and wins over Oregon/Maryland
- Michigan State: 4-1 with loss to Mich and wins over OSU/Rut/Pur/Ind
Houston and UCONN and MSU are probably the top 2 seeds based on reveal ranking and results since then...I don't really agree with that, but I am assuming that's the committee's thoughts. So it's really between Illinois and ISU for the last 2 seed. Given our previous ranking of 4 and theirs of 7 and how the results are pretty similar of crappy wins over crappy teams and the fact while we have one more loss, our losses are 'better', I think we are still above them.
Now...I do also think it's splitting hairs...if it's ISU as 8 overall and Illinois 9 overall, the S curve would say we'd be in the same region. And if that's the case, I can see the committee pretty easily being able to flip flop the two teams based on how they do in their conference tourneys and whoever does better/has better wins gets the 2.