2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
The way things have gone lately for everyone 6th through 12th, I think a difference would be a 3 seed ISU potentially playing 2 seed Florida or UConn in the sweet 16.
It could. A 2 probably ensures St. Louis. It's possible to get it with a 3 anyway, but we'd be battling more teams.
These are the five that could be placed there, although ISU probably has leg up on everyone except perhaps Illinois:
Iowa State
Illinois
Kansas
Purdue
Nebraska
Oh, my day is now complete! I got the cherished emoji:
Yep. All of the teams this year that are going to be 2 and 3 seeds are really equal quality, you gotta beat one to get to the Elite Eight, so be it. Some of those teams would be harder beats for ISU than others, so we just gotta hope for a favorable bracket. And no Duke as our #1, please.
I know Florida seems like the much more dangerous team, I get that, but UConn in tourney is a lot different than regular season UConn. Wouldn’t be a fun matchup to get them either I wouldn’t think. I would still prefer that but still.
Great points. A 3 will not bother me if they end up there as long as the 2 is not the Gators
Last night all kinds of ranked teams lost.
At this point will just wait and see... But most of the top 16 aside from 1 seeds and MSU are all limping home...
We agree on where they currently are in the overall, but I still think you're giving the committee members too much credit. I don't believe they are actively watching games. These are ADs and conference commissioners that are fed data and raw numbers in their day-to-day jobs, I can't imagine the tournament data is any different.
Nobody understands how college bb is a "March thing" better than Tom Izzo.
That was an us problem. We had a good enough resume before injuries to limp into a 3. Hard to play in the dance when you're down 1.5 all big 12 defenders.
I don’t even know if this is interesting, but it’s so in the weeds it caught my attention
What i'm getting from this is that we're Duke
I'd love to see what this looks like if you removed fast breaks off turnovers. That seems to be when we struggle the most when we aren't creating those
Just going by Bracket Matrix, here are how the regions could work out:
East
1: Duke
2: Michigan State
3: Texas Tech
4: Alabama
Midwest
1: Michigan
2: Houston
3: Purdue
4: Kansas
West
1: Arizona
2: Florida
3: Nebraska
4: Gonzaga
South
1: UConn
2: Illinois
3: Iowa State
4: Virginia
If Florida is #5, they won't put them in the east with Duke. South would be the next choice, but in order to separate teams, that doesn't work. Same for the Midwest.
These keeps the Top 4 Big 10 and Top 4 Big 12 teams in different regions.
If I take Bracketometry (the top rated one on Bracket Matrix, this is how it would go.
East
1: Duke
2: Michigan State
3: Iowa State
4: Gonzaga
Midwest
1: Michigan
2: Houston
3: Nebraska
4: Kansas
West
1: Arizona
2: Florida
3: Purdue
4: Virginia
South
1: UConn
2: Illinois
3: Texas Tech
4: Alabama
East
1: Duke
2: Michigan State
3: Texas Tech
4: Alabama
Midwest
1: Michigan
2: Houston
3: Purdue
4: Kansas
West
1: Arizona
2: Florida
3: Nebraska
4: Gonzaga
South
1: UConn
2: Illinois
3: Iowa State
4: Virginia
If Florida is #5, they won't put them in the east with Duke. South would be the next choice, but in order to separate teams, that doesn't work. Same for the Midwest.
These keeps the Top 4 Big 10 and Top 4 Big 12 teams in different regions.
If I take Bracketometry (the top rated one on Bracket Matrix, this is how it would go.
East
1: Duke
2: Michigan State
3: Iowa State
4: Gonzaga
Midwest
1: Michigan
2: Houston
3: Nebraska
4: Kansas
West
1: Arizona
2: Florida
3: Purdue
4: Virginia
South
1: UConn
2: Illinois
3: Texas Tech
4: Alabama
Boy... UConn is much more preferable to Duke, but would you rather play Michigan State or Illinois? I would say Michigan State because they struggle to score, but maybe Iowa State just needs to get the heck away from top-10 defenses
It will be tough regardless, but I would prefer a million times playing a Nebraska in the Sweet Sixteen than a Florida. Somehow staying on the 2 line would help us avoid a Florida if we were to drop to a 3 and be put in their region. They may get the 1 seed though... who knows.
Anyway, Nebraska has been overachieving all year with that roster and they don't have the size and athleticism up front Florida does. Those kinds of stacked big teams (think Arizona, Duke, Florida) with NBA talent and size in the forward spots are the worst for us. We have a 6-7" operator as our main post presence down low. We also struggle to drive and even more so when the team is big and physical (and meets us at the rim as UA could do).
As the UA game showed, we struggle to score against big, athletic teams. Match-ups dictate a lot, and it would be nice to avoid the UFs and UAs of the world.
My semi-hot take is the 1 through 3 seeds (at least) are all but set and at this point the committee is just watching to see if anyone stumbles for purposes of ranking the teams
Florida plays at Kentucky tomorrow. They'll likely win, but I wouldn't think a loss would drop them below Houston, who's played Colorado, Baylor, and plays Oklahoma State tomorrow
Michigan State plays at Michigan Sunday. Obviously a win would catapult them. But would even an 18 point loss hurt them? Michigan beats nearly everyone, and after last night I don't know if they'll be capable of blowing a top-10 team out as they adjust after the Cason injury
I say that about Michigan State because Illinois plays at Maryland and likely can't move up
Iowa State likely can't move up
Purdue plays Wisconsin tomorrow but would probably have to blow them out to have an outside chance of moving up
The best Nebraska can do is avenge a loss to Iowa. unlikely they can move up
Tech plays at BYU and likely can't move up
Florida plays at Kentucky tomorrow. They'll likely win, but I wouldn't think a loss would drop them below Houston, who's played Colorado, Baylor, and plays Oklahoma State tomorrow
Michigan State plays at Michigan Sunday. Obviously a win would catapult them. But would even an 18 point loss hurt them? Michigan beats nearly everyone, and after last night I don't know if they'll be capable of blowing a top-10 team out as they adjust after the Cason injury
I say that about Michigan State because Illinois plays at Maryland and likely can't move up
Iowa State likely can't move up
Purdue plays Wisconsin tomorrow but would probably have to blow them out to have an outside chance of moving up
The best Nebraska can do is avenge a loss to Iowa. unlikely they can move up
Tech plays at BYU and likely can't move up
Honestly, this is better than I would’ve guessed. UCF holding steady, and Cincinnati and TCU turning it on probably helped. I do think it shows that Iowa State’s only chance of a 2 is hopping Illinois (not Michigan State)
