2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

I guess we'll see! Obviously it depends how the other 2 seeds perform this week, but assuming they all secure wins then who knows.
 
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Looked great to start the season.

Had a bad week in Lawrence and Cincinnati.

Most of us brushed it off... which I still think was a reasonable reaction. They were tired. We almost never win in Lawrence. Cincinnati was desperate and an underappreciated tough home court.

Seemed like they righted the ship. Then.

They've just been up and down since the TCU loss.

Couple great wins in there (murdering K-State, KU, Houston).

But didn't look competitive in some disappointing losses (BYU, Tech, Zona). And I think Arizona shows there's a tier of talent and team quality even beyond what KU and Houston can offer.

Arizona is on it. Duke. Michigan. Probably Florida. But we're just not on it.

Just looks and feels more like a #6 seed the past few weeks than a potential #1 or #2.
 
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Looked great to start the season.

Had a bad week in Lawrence and Cincinnati.

Most of us brushed it off... which I still think was a reasonable reaction. They were tired. We almost never win in Lawrence. Cincinnati was desperate and an underappreciated tough home court.

Seemed like they righted the ship. Then.

They've just been up and down since the TCU loss.

Couple great wins in there (murdering K-State, KU, Houston).

But didn't look competitive in some disappointing losses (BYU, Tech, Zona). And I think Arizona shows there's a tier of talent and team quality even beyond what KU and Houston can offer.

Arizona is on it. Duke. Michigan. Probably Florida. But we're just not on it.

Just looks and feels more like a #6 seed the past few weeks than a potential #1 or #2.
Losses at BYU and at Arizona don’t matter one bit. The loss at TCU is frustrating for sure but it’s a road loss. And losing to Tech at home sucks to not protect home court but they might be the hottest team in the big 12. I really think those computer models matter much. We might be a 3 seed but I could easily see a 2 still. Our toughest stretch was always at the end, and while frustrating to lose these games I don’t think it takes away from how good the team is. We don’t play road games in the tournament, and we have shown that neutral was pretty good to us. I think a lot of people are tuning out those facts. I’ll get blasted. Computer this, yadada.
 
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Losses at BYU and at Arizona don’t matter one bit. The loss at TCU is frustrating for sure but it’s a road loss. And losing to Tech at home sucks to not protect home court but they might be the hottest team in the big 12. I really think those computer models matter much. We might be a 3 seed but I could easily see a 2 still. Our toughest stretch was always at the end, and while frustrating to lose these games I don’t think it takes away from how good the team is. We don’t play road games in the tournament, and we have shown that neutral was pretty good to us. I think a lot of people are tuning out those facts. I’ll get blasted. Computer this, yadada.
The thing here is... Many of us thought this team had 'it' in them to be a true title contender. It sure does not look like they are right now.

This deal is relative. It sure feels like the ceiling of this team has been recalibrated a few notches lower than what it was a month ago.
 
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The thing here is... Many of us thought this team had 'it' in them to be a true title contender. It sure does not look like they are right now.

This deal is relative. It sure feels like the ceiling of this team has been recalibrated a few notches lower than what it was a month ago.
That’s a fan issue. I never thought this team had “it”, never it is. We are a very good team that has some warts larger than the other very good teams. It’s always been known our guard play is young and iffy. Nothing about the last few weeks is any different. We can beat anyone when on, struggle on the road, and are streaking offensively. I think our ceiling is an elite 8 run and that hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.
 
That’s a fan issue. I never thought this team had “it”, never it is. We are a very good team that has some warts larger than the other very good teams. It’s always been known our guard play is young and iffy. Nothing about the last few weeks is any different. We can beat anyone when on, struggle on the road, and are streaking offensively. I think our ceiling is an elite 8 run and that hasn’t changed in the last few weeks.
It’s a perception issue. Yours is different than others.

It’s more than fair for people to be disappointed because just like you say, this team can beat anyone when they are ‘on.’ They have most certainly not been ‘on’ recently.
 
It’s a perception issue. Yours is different than others.

It’s more than fair for people to be disappointed because just like you say, this team can beat anyone when they are ‘on.’ They have most certainly not been ‘on’ recently.
So realistic versus unrealistic. It wasn’t hard to see losses at BYU and at Arizona. The tech one hurt a bit but again they are playing extremely good basketball right now. I guess I’m just not up in arms about losing those games. Of course I want to see us win them all, but again, not realistic. We won’t face a team like tech until the sweet 16, and then an Arizona type until the elite 8, if we make it. On a neutral court I just think these results we have seen are taken out of context by some fans. That is all I’m saying.
 
I think this team is better than the one two seasons ago that made the Sweet Sixteen fairly comfortably by tournament standards. Unfortunately, the field is insane this season. Just get to the tournament healthy and roll the dice. While three of the 1 seeds and Florida—if they aren’t one—are virtually unbeatable, there’s no difference to me between the teams that will end up getting 2s and 3s. I think that will distort the usual Final Four chances based on seed. At least, that’s my cope at this point. I have zero expectations for Kansas City