2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

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My dad (rip) taught me that "liars can figure but figures don't lie"
Why are the Johnnies a good win for Uconn but not for ISU? Aren't they a better win than the Hoks?
Possibly the difference is they piss pounded St. John’s while we had a hard-fought win? Otherwise I agree.
 
Default outcome.

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Win out!

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Lose at Arizona (2-1).

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Lose Tech and at Arizona (1-2).

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Looks like a #2 might be the floor now without going pear-shaped against the Sun Devils.

#1 is still in play if you can win in Tucson and otherwise take care of business!

Leaving your hopes of the #8 overall to a committee most of which will favor big brands sure is risky…but that’s what the team opted for. hope I’m wrong, but I think 3 is back on the menu
 
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Leaving your hopes of the #8 overall to a committee most of which will favor big brands sure is risky…but that’s what the team opted for. hope I’m wrong, but I think 3 is back on the menu
It's been a bummer the last couple of years seeing our projections get worse as we get towards March.
 
Yep, assuming we lose at Arizona it feels like a toss up between 2/3 now.
It won't really matter if our guard play plays poorly. We won't go very far in the tournament. Other than Batemon, this team's guard play from a shooting the 3 standpoint is really bad. No wonder Jefferson feels like he has to play hero ball sometimes. Lipsey's shooting has been bad most of the year. Even his freethrow shooting is bad. He's got to be banged up. Toure will hopefully improve...but not with what's left on this year. Heise is streaky...but he's not a big volume shooter. Nelson is a driver and not a shooter. Our best 3 point shooter is a forward...not a guard. Other than Batemon, this team has no options from the guards to rely on...none.
 
Yep, assuming we lose at Arizona it feels like a toss up between 2/3 now.
I think we're a two unless we lose to Arizona State. We've been a top ten team almost the entire year, and people (including bracketologists) get too hung up on what happened the day before when the committee is looking at the year as a whole. It also helps that other teams vying for a two have had losses lately too.
 
We'll be closer to 2/3 cutoff line, for one thing, but possibly even worse is we may squander the chance to play in St. Louis. We're battling Illinois, Purdue and KU (w/ Nebraska being less likely possibility). Next best is Oklahoma City, but Houston has one of those, now Tech could get the other.

That leaves ISU being shipped west or east for first weekend

We aren't to that point YET, but 8 days ago that wasn't much of a concern.
 
We'll be closer to 2/3 cutoff line, for one thing, but possibly even worse is we may squander the chance to play in St. Louis. We're battling Illinois, Purdue and KU (w/ Nebraska being less likely possibility). Next best is Oklahoma City, but Houston has one of those, now Tech could get the other.

That leaves ISU being shipped west or east for first weekend

We aren't to that point YET, but 8 days ago that wasn't much of a concern.
The good thing is those teams you mentioned have done themselves no favors recently
 
Leaving your hopes of the #8 overall to a committee most of which will favor big brands sure is risky…but that’s what the team opted for. hope I’m wrong, but I think 3 is back on the menu
Yes, the team opted for it. What the hell? Yes the team didn't play its best, but also couldn't get a break. Missed travels/double dribbles and 50/50 balls all seemed to favor Tech generally ending up in a made bucket, or even a made 3. Tech made a lot of incredibly difficult shots while ISU's shots often just weren't falling.

Tech earned the win, but go ahead and say the team opted for the loss...
 
Yes, the team opted for it. What the hell? Yes the team didn't play its best, but also couldn't get a break. Missed travels/double dribbles and 50/50 balls all seemed to favor Tech generally ending up in a made bucket, or even a made 3. Tech made a lot of incredibly difficult shots while ISU's shots often just weren't falling.

Tech earned the win, but go ahead and say the team opted for the loss...

There have been posters that seem to think ISU players choose whether or not to make shots to it's not surprising that some would think the team opted to go down the pecking order.
 
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Yes, the team opted for it. What the hell? Yes the team didn't play its best, but also couldn't get a break. Missed travels/double dribbles and 50/50 balls all seemed to favor Tech generally ending up in a made bucket, or even a made 3. Tech made a lot of incredibly difficult shots while ISU's shots often just weren't falling.

Tech earned the win, but go ahead and say the team opted for the loss...

Do I think this roster was capable of not going down double digits multiple times against BYU and Tech? Yes, I do. If they win one of those we wouldn’t have to revisit the seed question. I’m obviously using tongue-in-cheek language to describe the situation. I’ve never once jumped on the “They’re giving no effort today” train. But they’re capable of better, and we’re getting to the point that we’ll just have to hope they prove it in the tournament. I’m frustrated that it’s March and there are open questions, guilty as charged
 
It won't really matter if our guard play plays poorly. We won't go very far in the tournament. Other than Batemon, this team's guard play from a shooting the 3 standpoint is really bad. No wonder Jefferson feels like he has to play hero ball sometimes. Lipsey's shooting has been bad most of the year. Even his freethrow shooting is bad. He's got to be banged up. Toure will hopefully improve...but not with what's left on this year. Heise is streaky...but he's not a big volume shooter. Nelson is a driver and not a shooter. Our best 3 point shooter is a forward...not a guard. Other than Batemon, this team has no options from the guards to rely on...none.

I've said since before the year even during the good times (and there have been many good times with this team) it lacks a go-to SG who can just make stuff happen by himself in a drought.

We don't have a Brockington, (healthy) Gilbert, or CuJo type on the roster who can do it. Tamin looks hurt again, Toure is a good defender but not much of a threat on offense, Batemon and Heise are good defenders and spot-up shooters but can't create for themselves. Nelson can slash but was a turnover machine and can't play defense. Williams is obviously hurt. We're just missing that one big piece.

Obviously missing it was enough to cost the Big 12 and a #1 seed.

But hey this team is still good enough and then some to get hot and win four games in March.