2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[dahliaclone]

Looking at the votes in the polls, we're seeing tiers a bit. Not news really, just interesting.

Tier 1: Duke/AZ/Michigan (1 seeds)

Then a drop of 150 or so votes...

Tier 2: Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Florida/Purdue/Gonzaga (Final 1 seed/2 seeds/1 3 seed)

Then a drop of around 150 votes...

Tier 3: Illinois/Virginia/Nebraska/Michigan State/Kansas/St. John's/Texas Tech (3 seeds/4 seeds)

 

[CycloneNoah13]

Does the committee do another reveal before selection sunday or is that the only one?

 

[cyclones500]

Does the committee do another reveal before selection sunday or is that the only one?

That's the only one.

 

[Cyhig]

Looking at the votes in the polls, we're seeing tiers a bit. Not news really, just interesting.

Tier 1: Duke/AZ/Michigan (1 seeds)

Then a drop of 150 or so votes...

Tier 2: Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Florida/Purdue/Gonzaga (Final 1 seed/2 seeds/1 3 seed)

Then a drop of around 150 votes...

Tier 3: Illinois/Virginia/Nebraska/Michigan State/Kansas/St. John's/Texas Tech (3 seeds/4 seeds)

I know anything can happen in the NCAA tournament, but it certainly feels as though Duke, AZ, or Michigan will win it

 

[dahliaclone]

I know anything can happen in the NCAA tournament, but it certainly feels as though Duke, AZ, or Michigan will win it

It does, but like you said anything can happen. The likely 2/3 seeds this year are seemingly better than recent years. This year there are 10 or so teams that can win it...with those three the most likely. But they're each likely gonna have to face a team like ISU/Houston/Florida/UCONN etc to get to the Final Four and in a win or go home one game situation, things happen.

 

[danvillecyclone]

Gonzaga won't sniff the 2 seed line. They don't have the resume they've had in the past. They have played SEVENTEEN Q3 and Q4 games and have a Q3 loss. The committee made it perfectly clear when they slotted the Zags at 12 on Saturday. Florida is the only 3 seed with a shot to move to the 2 line IMO.

I saw a NCAA tournament website that had Gonzaga as the 5th best team and a 31% chance at a #1 seed.

I immediately blocked the site in my browser and deleted all history!

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Looking at the votes in the polls, we're seeing tiers a bit. Not news really, just interesting.

Tier 1: Duke/AZ/Michigan (1 seeds)

Then a drop of 150 or so votes...

Tier 2: Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Florida/Purdue/Gonzaga (Final 1 seed/2 seeds/1 3 seed)

Then a drop of around 150 votes...

Tier 3: Illinois/Virginia/Nebraska/Michigan State/Kansas/St. John's/Texas Tech (3 seeds/4 seeds)

AP Poll doesn't not mean sh!t as far as seeding goes. Gonzaga is a 3 at best, they aren't getting a 2 seed with that resume and our win against Purdue will matter.

 

[dahliaclone]

AP Poll doesn't not mean sh!t as far as seeding goes. Gonzaga is a 3 at best, they aren't getting a 2 seed with that resume and our win against Purdue will matter.

I'm not saying AP means anything. Simply saying there are tiers forming. And those 16 are basically the top 16 from the reveal.

 

[Cloned4Life]

AP Poll doesn't not mean sh!t as far as seeding goes. Gonzaga is a 3 at best, they aren't getting a 2 seed with that resume and our win against Purdue will matter.

It does not mean anything towards seeding it is damn important to perception, eyeballs, recruiting, etc. to see that little #4 next to our name on TV for these 2 games this week...

 

[bawbie]

I don't think it's that puzzling. Winning on the road is really hard. We're not more talented than BYU and they have probably the best player in the country.

And said best player played his best game of the year.

If you watched that game and the KU game from a week ago without knowing anything about them - and then I told you that Peterson was likely going to be drafted ahead of Dybantsa, you'd say I'm crazy.

 

[cydnote]

And said best player played his best game of the year.

If you watched that game and the KU game from a week ago without knowing anything about them - and then I told you that Peterson was likely going to be drafted ahead of Dybantsa, you'd say I'm crazy.

I might have said that anyway

 

[PantherCyclone]

I'm totally confused.

Failing upwards?

Beating the #2 team in the country got more eyes and attention than losing to #23. Match that with 8 of the top ten getting a loss and Duke being the only Team with a better win, we are where we are. Only Purdue, Michigan, BYU, Houston had "better" losses, I think.

 

[PantherCyclone]

And said best player played his best game of the year.

If you watched that game and the KU game from a week ago without knowing anything about them - and then I told you that Peterson was likely going to be drafted ahead of Dybantsa, you'd say I'm crazy.

I wonder how much officiating played a role with this. It felt like there were some whistles for just breathing on the guy.

 

[cyclones500]

It does, but like you said anything can happen. The likely 2/3 seeds this year are seemingly better than recent years. This year there are 10 or so teams that can win it...with those three the most likely. But they're each likely gonna have to face a team like ISU/Houston/Florida/UCONN etc to get to the Final Four and in a win or go home one game situation, things happen.

If I had to make a projection today, my most likely national title contenders would be this (listed in alphabetical order)

Arizona
Duke
Florida
Houston
Michigan

Next tier, I'd put at Final Four ceiling (also alpha order):
Alabama/Arkansas (one, but not both)
Illinois
Gonzaga
Iowa State
Michigan State
Purdue
St. John’s
UConn
Virginia
(If Tech still had Toppin, I’d include in this group).

Not much "hot take" in any of that.

There are maybe half-dozen teams beyond those I could see as out-of-left field Final Four, if there's a region with a little extra chaos.

 

[VeloClone]

Failing upwards?

ISU lost at a top 25 team this weekend but also beat a top 5 team since the last poll.

 

[WastedTalent]

Dumb@ss Lunardi has both ISU and Houston as 2 seeds, with UConn getting the last 1 seed. Complete idiot.

Bracketmatrix has UCONN as the last 1 seed, and by a decent margin. I think you'll see a lot of shuffling between them 3 and Illinois, depending on wins and losses.

 

[t.m.]

Looking at the votes in the polls, we're seeing tiers a bit. Not news really, just interesting.

Tier 1: Duke/AZ/Michigan (1 seeds)

Then a drop of 150 or so votes...

Tier 2: Iowa State/Houston/UCONN/Florida/Purdue/Gonzaga (Final 1 seed/2 seeds/1 3 seed)

Then a drop of around 150 votes...

Tier 3: Illinois/Virginia/Nebraska/Michigan State/Kansas/St. John's/Texas Tech (3 seeds/4 seeds)

Why somehow hanging on to that last #1 seed matters. Guarantees the Cyclones can't see 12 of these 16 teams in a sweet 16 matchup. (I know they still need to win their games/matchups/upsets happen/etc.)

 

[Cloned4Life]

Why somehow hanging on to that last #1 seed matters. Guarantees the Cyclones can't see 12 of these 16 teams in a sweet 16 matchup. (I know they still need to win their games/matchups/upsets happen/etc.)

Could make an argument that getting that last 1 seed this year is about as important as ever.

 

[cydnote]

If I remember reading correctly, the caveat to this year is that the metrics of the top teams are higher than in past years to the extent that in previous years there was more separation between the top four and the field. This year there are 10-12 teams who's metric numbers suggest that they could have been a one seed in past tournaments.

 

[CascadeClone]

If I remember reading correctly, the caveat to this year is that the metrics of the top teams are higher than in past years to the extent that in previous years there was more separation between the top four and the field. This year there are 10-12 teams who's metric numbers suggest that they could have been a one seed in past tournaments.

Looking at KP -

• there are 5 teams over 33 in Kenpom this year. The previous 5 years there were only 7 total (4 of those were last year).
• There are 8 teams over 30 in KP this year, only 12 the previous 5 years combined (half were last year).
• Another way to look at it, the #10 KP team this year would have been Top5 in 4 of the past 5 years.

ISU at 31.2 is 8th in KP, but would have been #5, #2, #1, #1, #4 the past 5 years.

Its a really really solid year for CBB. Now if ISU could just be awesome in a down year...