2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[BCClone]

Heres the media committee bracket

Nebraska as the three? Yes please, although I’d guess we wouldn’t actually see them as someone would pick them off.

 

[VeloClone]

You misunderstand, which is fair because it's not written very clearly. The bolded rule is explaining that KU and UA records against the seeded teams top down are looking at ISU and Houston separately because ISU and Houston are a two team tie and ISU won head to head.

Okay, I see it now. Yeah, that rule is clear as mud.

 

[cyclones500]

I also saw a short pod with some of the CBS guys (or maybe it was Field of 68) talking abotu UConn, and one of them said "SEC champ HAS to get a 1 seed, whether its Florida or Georgia".

And I thought, are you nuts?? This isn't the CFP where conf champs get a auto bid. It may shake out where Florida is worthy of a 1, but they sure as hell don't get it just for winning the SEC,

I'd be curious to see/hear that segment.

If it's either CBS or Field of 68, my hunch is it'd be the latter.

 

[NiceMarmot]

Their region placement with the 2 seeds makes no sense. There's no scenario where Uconn would be the 2 seed in the MW since the committee places teams by proximity. Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa State would all get slotted in Chicago over Uconn. If Uconn was the 5th overall seed they would be in the East.

View attachment 167926

Iowa State was the 5th overall seed in the media's mock selection, and the 5th overall seed cannot be the 2-seed in the overall 1-seed's region. So Iowa State cannot go to the Midwest. Then they wouldn't place Iowa State as the 2-seed in the South due to Houston being the 1 so we go to the next closest region which is DC in the East. Then UConn is placed next and their closest region is Chicago in the Midwest.

 

[ESciGuy]

I'd rather play Duke then Michigan to get to the Final 4.

Play Duke, followed by playing Michigan, to get to the Final Four?

 

[hoosman]

Saturdays games are a final 4 preview. ISU wants Duke to beat Michigan and Arizona over Houston. Correct?

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Iowa State was the 5th overall seed in the media's mock selection, and the 5th overall seed cannot be the 2-seed in the overall 1-seed's region. So Iowa State cannot go to the Midwest. Then they wouldn't place Iowa State as the 2-seed in the South due to Houston being the 1 so we go to the next closest region which is DC in the East. Then UConn is placed next and their closest region is Chicago in the Midwest.

OK that makes total sense. Thanks! I didn't even think of the #5 being placed with the overall #1.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Saturdays games are a final 4 preview. ISU wants Duke to beat Michigan and Arizona over Houston. Correct?

Honestly, unless one of the teams get blown out I don't think the Duke/Michigan result matters at all. Yes, we definitely want Arizona to beat Houston.

 

[CascadeClone]

Play Duke, followed by playing Michigan, to get to the Final Four?

TO BE THE MAN, YOU GOTTA BEAT THE MAN!

 

[RivClone23]

Honestly, unless one of the teams get blown out I don't think the Duke/Michigan result matters at all. Yes, we definitely want Arizona to beat Houston.

Do we still want Arizona to win if we could guarantee Houston loses Monday night at KU?

 

[dahliaclone]

Iowa State was the 5th overall seed in the media's mock selection, and the 5th overall seed cannot be the 2-seed in the overall 1-seed's region. So Iowa State cannot go to the Midwest. Then they wouldn't place Iowa State as the 2-seed in the South due to Houston being the 1 so we go to the next closest region which is DC in the East. Then UConn is placed next and their closest region is Chicago in the Midwest.

Right? I thought I was crazy. There are SO MANY 'experts' putting out their bracket predictions that have ISU as the 2 seed in Michigan's region and I'm just like...but the only way that's true is if ISU is considered the overall 8 seed...which just isn't the case. Right?

 

[cyclones500]

Right? I thought I was crazy. There are SO MANY 'experts' putting out their bracket predictions that have ISU as the 2 seed in Michigan's region and I'm just like...but the only way that's true is if ISU is considered the overall 8 seed...which just isn't the case. Right?

ISU could be in that region as 6 or 7 overall (doesn’t strictly follow curve)

 

[dahliaclone]

ISU could be in that region as 6 or 7 overall (doesn’t strictly follow curve)

Right. I'm talking about if we are the overall 5 seed.

 

[NENick]

Play Duke, followed by playing Michigan, to get to the Final Four?

Oops. But yeah, what the hell! Bring 'em all on!

 

[not-the-manager]

Do we still want Arizona to win if we could guarantee Houston loses Monday night at KU?

Yes. The way I look at it is Arizona has been ahead of Iowa State all season, and might only drop below them if Iowa State wins out. If Iowa State wins Saturday and Houston drops its next two, Iowa State would have its clearest path to a 1 in some time

 

[hoosman]

Wouldn’t the overall 5 seed be QF bracketed with the overall 4 seed? 4vs5, 3vs6,2vs7,1vs8 elite 8?

 

[Bader]

Wouldn’t the overall 5 seed be QF bracketed with the overall 4 seed? 4vs5, 3vs6,2vs7,1vs8 elite 8?

No they don’t strictly follow the s curve when bracketing.

 

[cyclones500]

No they don’t strictly follow the s curve when bracketing.

Yes. And, for those who wonder about distribution, the goal is having top 4 lines as balanced as possible among the 4 regions.

Compare true seeding totals (combined 136) in each region and there should be no more than difference of six from highest to lowest (If I recall correctly).

So you could get something like the following. This doesn’t apply specifically to this season’s projections, only an example:

1 (first overall)
6
12
14
—
(33)

4 (fourth 1 seed)
7
9
13
—
(33)

2 (second 1 seed)
5
11
16
—
(34)

3 (third 1 seed)
8
10
15
—
(36)

 

[danvillecyclone]

F it.

Give us the 16 seed vs Michigan in Philadelphia Friday Night Lights March 20th

 

[jcf817]

Right. I'm talking about if we are the overall 5 seed.

I feel like I've seen this movie before.