2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

I wouldn't like being in DC over Chicago though. Give me the 2 seed in Chicago over any 1 seed IMO.

No way. You don't want to have to go through Michigan, Duke, Arizona or Houston to make a Final 4 as a #2 seed.

Grab a 1 seed and a path to the Final 4 could look something like this: (16) Howard/(8) Saint Marys/(5) Vanderbilt/(3) Gonzaga
 
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But when you justify why Kansas is above Arizona you cite their records against Iowa State. Iowa State and Houston are tied at the top so the records of KU and UA against the entire first group - ISU and UH - must be compared (by the non bolded part of the rule you quoted). If KU and UA are placed that way because of head to head that isn't what the note says. Either your bolded part is applicable and justification is wrong or the non bolded part applies and the justification should include record agains ISU and UH.
You misunderstand, which is fair because it's not written very clearly. The bolded rule is explaining that KU and UA records against the seeded teams top down are looking at ISU and Houston separately because ISU and Houston are a two team tie and ISU won head to head.
 
The MBB Selection Committee will reveal their current top 16 seeds on Saturday, 2/21 at 11:30 am CT on CBS.
Since nearly every relevant game is complete, it is prediction time.

Michigan MW
Duke E
Arizona W
Houston S
Iowa State MW
UConn. E
Illinois. W
Florida. S
Purdue. S
Gonzaga W
Kansas. E
Virginia. MW
Vanderbilt. E
Michigan St W
Nebraska. S
Louisville MW

Regions barely work balance wise.
 
Since nearly every relevant game is complete, it is prediction time.

Michigan MW
Duke E
Arizona W
Houston S
Iowa State MW
UConn. E
Illinois. W
Florida. S
Purdue. S
Gonzaga W
Kansas. E
Virginia. MW
Vanderbilt. E
Michigan St W
Nebraska. S
Louisville MW

Regions barely work balance wise.
1-Michigan MW
2-Duke E
3-Houston S
4-Arizona W
5-Iowa State E
6-Illinois S
7-UCONN MW
8-Purdue W
9-Florida W
10-Kansas S
11-Gonzaga MW
12-Nebraska E
13-Michigan State MW
14-Virginia E
15-Alabama S
16-Texas Tech W
 
Sadly, I think I gotta cheer for Duke over Michigan. Duke as the overall #1 seed would nearly guarantee a 2 seeded Iowa State being placed in the Midwest. They only reason the media didn't is because they won't put #1 and #5 in the same region.
 
To all the folks saying the Big 12 tournament doesn't matter for NCAA tourny seeding purposes, in past years, for the vast majority of teams, I would agree.

However, this year could be very different for our current situation.

Let me paint you a picture. Iowa State and Houston are fighting for the last #1 seed. In the Big 12 tourney, Iowa State and Houston meet in the semifinal game as the #2 seed and #3 seed, respectively. Both teams enter that game with 4 losses.

Now you're telling me the NCAA selection committee has the last #1 seed predetermined prior to the Big 12 tourny? I say horse Shat to that. If Iowa State wins that semifinal game v Houston, they would have TWO head-to-head victories over Houston and one less loss than Houston on the season (entering the Big 12 tournament title game). There is ZERO chance Houston gets the last 1 seed over Iowa State in that scenario. Not to mention if Iowa State went on to beat Arizona or Kansas in the Big 12 tourny championship game.

The only way Iowa State can grab a 1 seed is if they win the rest of their regular season games and avoid a quarter final loss on Thursday of the Big 12's. The field will be pretty much locked in by Friday. If Iowa State wins the rest of their regular season games they will have secured a 1 seed. The Big 12 tournament semi's and finals are literally meaningless as far as seeding goes.
 
Yeah, I could’ve been clearer I think Iowa State finishes 27-4 at best, and so would have to jump a 28-3 or 27-4 Houston
Nobody is saying we are going to win out, we are saying we HAVE to win out to earn a 1 seed. That's a completely different conversation.
 
Heres the media committee bracket



Their region placement with the 2 seeds makes no sense. There's no scenario where Uconn would be the 2 seed in the MW since the committee places teams by proximity. Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa State would all get slotted in Chicago over Uconn. If Uconn was the 5th overall seed they would be in the East.

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