2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

First Saunders and now Toppin done for the year.

Better win those two...

IMO it's what-are-you-made-of time for Iowa State's offense. While the crowd will be amped and Dybansta will probably get his, BYU can't defend. Are you going to grind to a halt and start handing them the ball like you've done in other games, or trust your passing and shooting? Tech being top 25 in defensive efficiency surprised me, but without Toppin you should have an advantage in the paint. So, similar point, can you execute, or will you revert to playing aimless?
 
I'll admit I saw Batemon out there late in crunch time and had a "huh" moment.

Where's Milan? Your AA all-timer shooter in one of the biggest games of the year?

Or where's Toure? Supposedly the best on-ball defender we have even over Lipsey?

...then Batemon drills two threes and balls out on defense.

Way to go, kid.
I honestly think Batemon was one play away from maybe sitting (not for bad reasons, just normal rotation factors, then he forced a turnover on Flemings. For some reason, he was a better fit defensively in that particular instance than Toure. Can't remember who said it, but Toure had some bouncy feet in that game which Houston exploited for penetration
 
I honestly think Batemon was one play away from maybe sitting (not for bad reasons, just normal rotation factors, then he forced a turnover on Flemings. For some reason, he was a better fit defensively in that particular instance than Toure. Can't remember who said it, but Toure had some bouncy feet in that game which Houston exploited for penetration
Houston is a really bad matchup for Momcilovic defensively. He basically has to guard Uzan who is tough to stay in front of, or chase Sharp around screens all day. Batemon seems like he's not quite as quick as Toure defending on the ball, but his effort chasing off the ball is awesome.
 
Houston is a really bad matchup for Momcilovic defensively. He basically has to guard Uzan who is tough to stay in front of, or chase Sharp around screens all day. Batemon seems like he's not quite as quick as Toure defending on the ball, but his effort chasing off the ball is awesome.
To be fair, I thought Momcilovic did a hell of a job in the last 2 games defensively. Did NBA caliber players hit some shots over him? Of course they did. But Milan stayed in front of them and got a hand in their face. I honestly think it probably raised his stock in the eyes of NBA scouts. He's never going to be asked to shut down a top offensive player, but I think he proved he wouldn't get humiliated if he did get switched onto someone.
 
You can get the whole game replay from https://cyclones.com/watch/on-demand/game-replays

Just to fill in some details to what you've already outlined:
  • Milan checks into the game around 3:45 left when Lipsey is shooting FTs after the Batemon 'heat check' 3.
  • At 3:07, Batemon checks back in for Milan following the Tugler timeout (probably intended as a defensive substitution) - Milan sitting on the bench.
  • At 2:23 just after the Uzan missed front end of a 1-1 (score 65-63 Houston), Milan is in front of the scorer's table
  • When Batemon hits the corner 3 to go up 66-65, you can see TJ go towards Milan and then Milan heads back to the bench. In the replay it's around 1:23:20.

So, I watched the whole clip now.

The ironic thing about Batemon is TJ was trying to get him out of there.

Milan was supposed to go in after Uzan makes the free throw -- an understandable defense-for-offense substitution when you think you're about to get the ball after he makes 'em.

Instead he misses the front-end and Batemon is "stuck" out there.

He immediately drills the three to take the lead (nice feed from Buchanan on that one).

Oh boy did we luck into something there.

The camera is far away from and doesn't frame up whatever went down between TJ and Milan very well, but I think our reading from the context clues they decided to let Batemon "cook" is correct.
 
Kenpom dropped UConn to 14th. Not sure where they were before but that seems awful low for a 1 seed.

Torvik has them down on the #2 line now behind Iowa State in the snake.

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Michigan and Duke are close to locks for a #1 seed. Arizona isn't far behind.

Last spot is probably going to be a second Big 12 (more likely) or Big Ten (less likely) team.
 
IMO it's what-are-you-made-of time for Iowa State's offense. While the crowd will be amped and Dybansta will probably get his, BYU can't defend. Are you going to grind to a halt and start handing them the ball like you've done in other games, or trust your passing and shooting? Tech being top 25 in defensive efficiency surprised me, but without Toppin you should have an advantage in the paint. So, similar point, can you execute, or will you revert to playing aimless?
If we are patient enough to test the defense, pass it when it's not there, test it again, wash, rinse, repeat, we will find plenty of easy shots against BYU. Dybantsa will certainly get his, even against a defense designed to stop him, but if you do just enough to slow him down, while keeping an eye on Wright, the rest of their players are unlikely to beat us given their lack of defense.
 
To be fair, I thought Momcilovic did a hell of a job in the last 2 games defensively. Did NBA caliber players hit some shots over him? Of course they did. But Milan stayed in front of them and got a hand in their face. I honestly think it probably raised his stock in the eyes of NBA scouts. He's never going to be asked to shut down a top offensive player, but I think he proved he wouldn't get humiliated if he did get switched onto someone.
I do think he is a good defensive player, and a good all around player, and all that is more than good enough considering that he is an elite offensive player.
 
Torvik has them down on the #2 line now behind Iowa State in the snake.

View attachment 167877

Michigan and Duke are close to locks for a #1 seed. Arizona isn't far behind.

Last spot is probably going to be a second Big 12 (more likely) or Big Ten (less likely) team.
Our way to a 1 seed is winning out and beating Arizona in the process. If we knock them off in Tucson then that should flip us with them.