2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[madguy30]

A 96 game score for Florida against Texas Tech shocks me. They were down 9 points with 3 minutes to go. I would say that's not perfect or anywhere close to near perfect. It took an incredible finish for them to win that game. Wondering how Torvik got 96 out of that.

I don't know the nuances but Torvik is still flawed and isn't something anyone should base actual expectations on.

Some of ISU's games are them having like 80% win chance on the road and it's bonkers.

It's kind of fun and all but putting emotional weight into it leads to the stupid 'well this said that X was supposed to happen so the team must not have cared' type of takes.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't know the nuances but Torvik is still flawed and isn't something anyone should base actual expectations on.

I think these models are an excellent place to start grounding your expectations.

Do you have any specific flaws in mind when you say that much?

Some of ISU's games are them having like 80% win chance on the road and it's bonkers.

I don't think an 80%+ win expectation even on the road is unreasonable for a team on the cusp of the #1/#2 line against even a mediocre-to-bad P5 team like TCU or in a few weeks Utah.

Remember, the "new" Big 12 is terrifying at the top but soft in the middle and bottom in ways similar to other P5 conferences. The days of the top-to-bottom "deadly ten" are in the past now. What sets the Big 12 apart now is not its consistent depth but rather its sheer number of Final Four-level contenders.

I don't have the number in front of me, but I bet if you went and converted the betting spreads for at TCU and at Utah into win expectation percent, then they'd line up closely with that 80% figure.

It's kind of fun and all but putting emotional weight into it leads to the stupid 'well this said that X was supposed to happen so the team must not have cared' type of takes.

These models give us probabilities not certainties and certainly miss a lot of real-world nuance.

TCU winning a 20% game for them... is less likely than a Cyclone victory here in an hour but a one-in-five event happening isn't that unlikely. It's like having two kids and both being girls (25%).

...which I can attest happens.

 

[CySmurf]

After the game tonight, Our offensive efficiency has now fallen to 17th. Defensive efficiency is 6th.

 

[ClonesFTW]

After the game tonight, Our offensive efficiency has now fallen to 17th. Defensive efficiency is 6th.

Our offense could very likely end up outside the top 30 after the next couple weeks.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think this kitten really speaks for me.



Thank you kitten -- now for the update.









Probably cost ourselves a seed line with that one.

Recovery to #2 is possible but #1 is probably almost out.

 

[not-the-manager]

I think this kitten really speaks for me.

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Thank you kitten -- now for the update.

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Probably cost ourselves a seed line with that one.

Recovery to #2 is possible but #1 is probably almost out.

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As someone who's generally pessimistic, I've gone out of my way to try to stay balanced so far this season, "enjoy the ride," as CW says. After last night I'm struggling to see light at the end of the tunnel. UConn will probably win out. Illinois doesn't have any more difficult road games. (Yeah, they got upset at home just last night, but I wouldn't bet on it happening again.) Florida has to go to Kentucky but gets Arkansas at home. Meh. Nebraska may have the best losses in the country of any team with three or more. So I guess we can hope that like four teams start losing a bunch of games, but it seems to me that unless Iowa State goes 6-1 or 7-0 they'll be a 3 seed. I think they could still make the Sweet Sixteen, but I wouldn't have any confidence after that

 

[cyclones500]

I think this kitten really speaks for me.

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Thank you kitten -- now for the update.

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Probably cost ourselves a seed line with that one.

Recovery to #2 is possible but #1 is probably almost out.

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I know it's what that metric/analysis says, but I'd put most of the win percentages noticeably lower. I'm not saying that only because of TCU result, I've thought that at many points throughout the season.

 

[KennyPratt42]

Here are the Kenpom defensive efficiency rankings of the power conference teams we've played so far:

Kansas 9
Cincinnati 11
St. John's 19
TCU 22
Purdue 23
Iowa 25
West Virginia 29
Miss St 62
Syracuse 64
Oklahoma St. 87
Baylor 108
UCF 113
Creighton 116
Kansas St. 123
Colorado 149

There's a pretty strong correlation of our best games coming against poor defensive teams and our worst games coming against good defensive teams (Purdue being the notable exception).

Remaining games:
Arizona 2
Houston 8
Kansas 9
Texas Tech 34
BYU 56
Arizona St. 106
Utah 200


Also backing up statistically what my eyes have been seeing, based on Torvic our adjusted offensive standard deviation is 12.9 while on defense it is 11.5 (and if you take out the two defensive outlier games in mid January it is under 10). We've been much more consisted on the defensive end this year and on offense have looked anywhere from wildly good (Illinois, the best offense in the country, averages 131.8) to pretty pedestrian (as a point of reference Oklahoma St averages 115.2, 74th best in the country).

 

[aobie]

As someone who's generally pessimistic, I've gone out of my way to try to stay balanced so far this season, "enjoy the ride," as CW says. After last night I'm struggling to see light at the end of the tunnel. UConn will probably win out. Illinois doesn't have any more difficult road games. (Yeah, they got upset at home just last night, but I wouldn't bet on it happening again.) Florida has to go to Kentucky but gets Arkansas at home. Meh. Nebraska may have the best losses in the country of any team with three or more. So I guess we can hope that like four teams start losing a bunch of games, but it seems to me that unless Iowa State goes 6-1 or 7-0 they'll be a 3 seed. I think they could still make the Sweet Sixteen, but I wouldn't have any confidence after that

It really depends on how the team finishes out. We have the opportunity to pick up some amazing wins to close out the season, and in the past, the committee has been fairly forgiving for teams that stack up Q1 wins. I realize it's very unlikely, but winning at Arizona would be the best win of anyone in the country, which would do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to seed conversations.

All that said, we shrank our margin of error to getting a 2 and nearly exhausted our chance at a 1 barring some craziness around the country and us winning out.

 

[KennyPratt42]

It really depends on how the team finishes out. We have the opportunity to pick up some amazing wins to close out the season, and in the past, the committee has been fairly forgiving for teams that stack up Q1 wins. I realize it's very unlikely, but winning at Arizona would be the best win of anyone in the country, which would do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to seed conversations.

All that said, we shrank our margin of error to getting a 2 and nearly exhausted our chance at a 1 barring some craziness around the country and us winning out.

Not that I'm expecting it in the least, but a 6-1 finish would likely put us in the conversation for the 4th 1 seed with just a little outside help (due to the 4 top level wins that would mean) and a 7-0 would put us at a 1 seed with zero outside help needed (we would jump Arizona, Houston, and Kansas if we did that and likely everyone else outside Michigan and maybe Duke).

 

[NENick]

After the losses to Kansas and Cincinnati, I suggested 5-2 over the next 7. So far, 5-1. So it's possible to exceed my worst case by beating Kansas this Saturday.

I suggested 3-3 for the final 6. Again, worst case scenario.

So where will 25-6 mean for seeding? 3?

 

[Sigmapolis]

After the losses to Kansas and Cincinnati, I suggested 5-2 over the next 7. So far, 5-1. So it's possible to exceed my worst case by beating Kansas this Saturday.

I suggested 3-3 for the final 6. Again, worst case scenario.

So where will 25-6 mean for seeding? 3?

Looks like a #3 -- seems reasonable to me.

Probably enough space up there for St. Louis or OKC for the first round.

Houston is well on its way to taking that second Big 12 #1 seed we were trying to court.

 

[KennyPratt42]

My gut based based on looking at rankings, metrics, and other teams in the top 15's schedule.

28-3: a 1 seed
27-4: a 2 seed, shot at the 4th 1 seed if the other couple teams in that range falter
26-5: a 2 seed is slight more likely than a 3 seed, both are very possible
25-6: solidly a 3 seed
24-7: very likely a 4 seed
Worse: anywhere from a 4 to a 6 seed depending on how badly things went

 

[Sigmapolis]

Drew a 100 for that game!



Third one of the year after at Purdue and at Kansas State.

I felt that one was the most impressive, complete game of the season, though.

At Purdue is some strong competition, but Kansas State stinks so who cares.

Very alive for a #2 seed even if the #1 ship has probably sailed.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Drew a 100 for that game!

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Third one of the year after at Purdue and at Kansas State.

I felt that one was the most impressive, complete game of the season, though.

At Purdue is some strong competition, but Kansas State stinks so who cares.

Very alive for a #2 seed even if the #1 ship has probably sailed.

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If we are a 3 there is no way Kansas should be as well. Too many bad losses.

 

[madguy30]

Here are the Kenpom defensive efficiency rankings of the power conference teams we've played so far:

Kansas 9
Cincinnati 11
St. John's 19
TCU 22
Purdue 23
Iowa 25
West Virginia 29
Miss St 62
Syracuse 64
Oklahoma St. 87
Baylor 108
UCF 113
Creighton 116
Kansas St. 123
Colorado 149

There's a pretty strong correlation of our best games coming against poor defensive teams and our worst games coming against good defensive teams (Purdue being the notable exception).

Remaining games:
Arizona 2
Houston 8
Kansas 9
Texas Tech 34
BYU 56
Arizona St. 106
Utah 200


Also backing up statistically what my eyes have been seeing, based on Torvic our adjusted offensive standard deviation is 12.9 while on defense it is 11.5 (and if you take out the two defensive outlier games in mid January it is under 10). We've been much more consisted on the defensive end this year and on offense have looked anywhere from wildly good (Illinois, the best offense in the country, averages 131.8) to pretty pedestrian (as a point of reference Oklahoma St averages 115.2, 74th best in the country).

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Is there a way to see which game is which (without going and counting because I'm too lazy to?)?

I know the reds are the losses.

 

[mikeiastat]

It really depends on how the team finishes out. We have the opportunity to pick up some amazing wins to close out the season, and in the past, the committee has been fairly forgiving for teams that stack up Q1 wins. I realize it's very unlikely, but winning at Arizona would be the best win of anyone in the country, which would do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to seed conversations.

All that said, we shrank our margin of error to getting a 2 and nearly exhausted our chance at a 1 barring some craziness around the country and us winning out.

Respectfully disagree. As loaded as the rest of the schedule is, If isu wins out, I think they still get a 1 seed. Who would have more net top 10/15 wins. Sor would get a healthy boost.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Is there a way to see which game is which (without going and counting because I'm too lazy to?)?

I know the reds are the losses.

https://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Iowa+St.&year=2026

Hover your mouse over the dots.

 

[rosshm16]

Odd to me that our barthag barely budged after this game, 0.9633 to 0.9669. I guess maybe we're at the point in the year where a single result doesn't move things much even an 18-point win over a top-10 team.

 

[dahliaclone]

Drew a 100 for that game!

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Third one of the year after at Purdue and at Kansas State.

I felt that one was the most impressive, complete game of the season, though.

At Purdue is some strong competition, but Kansas State stinks so who cares.

Very alive for a #2 seed even if the #1 ship has probably sailed.

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Tough call with Purdue at Iowa today. Should maybe be rooting for Iowa to win but I can't do it.