Exactly this. Teams would kill for a shooter like Milan, a point-forward like JJeff and a PG like Tamin. Also it takes talent to defend like Toure and Heise.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
At times like we saw last year in the tournament (outside of ISU who was injured but they would have struggled with Ole Miss for that very reason) if that athleticism syncs up and can put it together it negates the 'hard hat' team.
I don't feel like it's a 'concern' since it's just how it goes; ISU would need to play really well regardless if they met someone like that.
I get it. We have a daunting stretch ahead and will play a level of teams we have seen a lot of. I think the others are same thing about each other, including ISU.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Seems like a lot of people calculate it by NBA draft potential, but that does not win most games in college basketball.
I would be OK, but disappointed. I expect us to win out at home, and the way BYU is playing right now (which I get could be different in 2 weeks), we are the better team.
I don't see ISU beating both KU and Houston.
That's a tough turnaround even if they do beat KU.
This team is excellent but... every team has its weaknesses.
Ours?
Relative lack of shot creation from the guards. Tamin sure, but they don't really have "that guy" at SG who can just go out and manufacture a bucket or draw a foul when you need it (e.g., CuJo).
TJ teams have always had good positional size but don't have very much athleticism (with some exceptions like Hason Ward). When your best athlete might be Nate Heise, you're not explosive.
Buchanan has had some great games but disappears too much. I don't know where Pleta would rank for backup centers in the Big 12, but I think we'd all wish for some more quality post depth.
I'd take RoJo and Ward back in a heartbeat. Neither were particularly skilled but they fit the system.
Slow starts/lose focus on occasion. Yeah yeah these guys are human, but if you sleepwalk the first five minutes of a game in the second weekend then you're going home early in all likelihood.
This team is still one of the favorites for the national title. They can do big things from here, but the level of competition is about to take several steps up between now and (hopefully) into April.
If they lose some games coming up... the reasons above are probably mostly why.
Not to be a downer but being realistic here.
It's essentially a Sweet 16 to Elite 8 type turnaround. If we can't do that at home, is probably not going to happen in the tournament.
Good point, although I think it's more like a Elite 8 to Final 4 combination.
I am glad it's Kansas 1st, Houston 2nd. I expect the latter to be much more physical.
A couple things here.
1.) Lack of shot creation? How many other teams have a 6'8" wingman who can post up a smalller player and hit a Dirk fade away jumper with ease from 18 feet? Momcilovic is an absolute unicorn and will be a first round draft pick
2.) Not very much athleticism? There are different forms of athleticism. I assume you are talking about the above the rim athlete, right? You want the Carr kid from Mich State? He sure has some pretty dunks. Cant do much else but sure can jump. Go sit in the lower bowl in Hilton and just WATCH Tamin Lipsey play basketball. If you don't think he is an elite athlete Im not sure what to tell you. His quickness and explosiveness is unreal. He is the definition of an elite athlete. Ill take Tamin Lipsey. Those other teams with "elite" athletes can have a pretty alley oop or two.
3.) Oh and then there is the first team All-American Justin Jefferson....
Well, I definitely agree, Justin Jefferson is a hell of an athlete. 
The team is 21-2. I would had taken this record in a heartbeat before the season started. And I am reading doom and gloom in some of these posts.
Does this team have weaknesses? Sure. But they have a ton of strengths. When this team is on, they are nearly unstoppable. Look how many times they have won a half by 20+ points, even against P4 teams.
How far will ISU go in the tournament? I don’t know. A lot has to do with matchups.
But what I do know is the season is about to get really exciting starting this week. And it’s far better to be excited than being like K State where they actually are doom and gloom for very good reason. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the ride
Does this team have weaknesses? Sure. But they have a ton of strengths. When this team is on, they are nearly unstoppable. Look how many times they have won a half by 20+ points, even against P4 teams.
How far will ISU go in the tournament? I don’t know. A lot has to do with matchups.
But what I do know is the season is about to get really exciting starting this week. And it’s far better to be excited than being like K State where they actually are doom and gloom for very good reason. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the ride
I don't think my post is "doom 'n' gloom."
It is more why they might not somehow get ahead of Arizona for the Big 12 regular season title or might lose in the Elite Eight up against a #1 or #2 seed that also has a stacked roster.
...objectively still a great season.
Even if it might not reach our wildest hopes and dreams.
@Sigmapolis
Your posts are always informative. There were some others that painted a more dire outlook . . . At least how I read them
No offense taken.
I know you know there's a wide difference between rationally assessing how difficult it is for any program to win the Big 12 regular season or make a Final Four. BT has Michigan as the team most likely to make the Final Four this season (37.6%) with Iowa State coming in eighth on the ranking list (21.7%).
...so roughly one-in-five... but still one of the best shots in the country.
...and...
...the everything sucks all the time pessimism that seems to define a small but vocal minority of the fanbase and well the culture of the "modern" Internet and social media seems to be about complaining.
The NCAA tournament's single-elimination format is entertaining as all hell but incredibly unforgiving. Even the high seeds are buying lottery tickets. And the key to winning the lottery is buying lots of tickets. If TJ keeps patching together teams good enough to earn top-four seeds then eventually you'd hope one of these years the stars would align and we'd have a "hit" on a deep run. Plenty of programs with worse long-term records have had worse teams than our current one make a surprise Final Four run (like ugh #11 NC State in 2024).
One of these years... it'll be our turn.
And I'm not going to ***** 'n' moan about it not having happened in the meantime.
Our expectations have been recalibrated after the start of the season especially and to this point in conference play. That shouldn’t take away from the fact that this team has gelled better than I think anyone thought, and the returning pieces all stepped up a level this year.
So many posters get all bent of out shape when we now don’t win every game by 20, and play perfect basketball for 40 minutes. Guess what? That rarely, if ever, happens. This team has what it takes, that even when things aren’t going well to continue winning games. Might not win the last one, and every team but one doesn’t, but this is one of our best teams all time, and one of the best in the country. Teams hate preparing for our style, and we have some of the best playmakers in college ball on our side. This **** is fun!
So many posters get all bent of out shape when we now don’t win every game by 20, and play perfect basketball for 40 minutes. Guess what? That rarely, if ever, happens. This team has what it takes, that even when things aren’t going well to continue winning games. Might not win the last one, and every team but one doesn’t, but this is one of our best teams all time, and one of the best in the country. Teams hate preparing for our style, and we have some of the best playmakers in college ball on our side. This **** is fun!
I am going to be disappointed when the team drops a game (almost inevitably, they will) but I am not going to overreact. There are a lot of exceptional teams in the Big 12 and not everyone is going to be able to win every night.
Good point although the tournament is a different deal than the mid-late conference season.
If ISU splits that one it doesn't mean they can't win two more tournament games (matchups, etc. pending).
