Gonzaga has consistently been the most overrated team this season. Their only wins of note are Alabama, Kentucky and UCLA all of which are far from their vintage selves and they got annihilated by Michigan. This is not a vintage Gonzaga team, I think 5 seed is even a bit high tbh especially after the Portland loss.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Disagree, I think their out of conference wins are going to carry them far. I think Purdue will start rolling after a tough stretch, Pitino teams always get better as the season wears on and Iowa is a legit good team. It's too bad that Creighton and Mississippi State flamed out but there's a lot of meat on that OOC schedule.
There's not much in conference to work with but, as you said, the Cyclones are going to have lots of opportunities to pad their resume to close out conference season.
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They were an 8 seed last year, even though KenPom had them as a top 10 team entering the tournament. That loss to Portland likely keeps them around the 8 seed again this season.
They are now down to NET 9 with NET SOS and RPI SOS down to 91 and 161 respectively. (Iowa State regularly gets called out for their bad SOSs thus far at 61 and 73 - and ISU's continues to climb after every game.) Their SOSs generally continue to fall even after most wins. The only thing that was propping them up was the gaudy one loss record. The bad loss really exposes them now.
Seems to me like we have a lot of work left to feel good about a 2 seed.
Our quality wins right now are just Purdue (team that is slipping) and St. Johns. Sure we have other Q 1 wins, but those don't impress anyone.
Obviously we have our chances coming up.
Our quality wins right now are just Purdue (team that is slipping) and St. Johns. Sure we have other Q 1 wins, but those don't impress anyone.
Obviously we have our chances coming up.
ISU has a couple of good wins (I contend that that Purdue win is one of the best wins), but their out of conference resume is far from one of the best in the nation. I hate OOC SOS but will quote it here because it is relevant to this conversation. ISU's OOC NET SOS and OOC RPI SOS are 108 and 225. That is on par with Houston's and I'm sure everyone has heard Houston being roasted for their terrible OOC schedule. ISU and Houston are the only top 9 teams in NET with both of those numbers above 100.
That being said, their numbers aren't nearly as bad as NET 10 Nebraska's whose OOC NET SOS and OOC RPI SOS are 311 and 222!
Big games tomorrow:
Duke at UNC
Illinois at MSU
Houston at BYU
Root for the home teams as it'll help our seeding.
Duke at UNC
Illinois at MSU
Houston at BYU
Root for the home teams as it'll help our seeding.
Quality wins are what really drives the argument for me and I favor a blowout win over Purdue and wins over St. John's and Iowa heavily over wins against Auburn and Arkansas so I don't think Houston's OOC resume compares.
Iowa State still has a lot of proving to do in conference since their conference schedule has been so weak thus far but that OOC resume is going to drive positive results for them come Selection Sunday IMO.
Whether it compares to Houston's or not, I don't think you can make a compelling case that ISU's OOC resume is one of the best in the nation. A couple of games does not make a resume. I guess when some one says one of the best I think they are saying on par with the best and I don't think ISU's is on par with Arizona's, UConn's or Duke's for example.
To each their own, I guess.
Zaga's Q1 & Q2 record is fine, but something of note: 14 of its 22 wins are in Q3 or Q4 (7-1 in Q3 and 8-0 in Q4). I don't know how much that should affect the profile, and of course being in WCC isn't going to add many high-end opportunities.
One of the best doesn't mean THE best but I don't think there's 10 teams with better wins than what Iowa State had in their OOC. Those teams I would certainly agree have a better OOC resume but I cannot agree that Houston's is comparable.
Add UCONN at St. John's tonight. That's like a double-benefit to our seeding if St. John's wins. Need that win to stay in the Q1 zone and would be nice to see UCONN lose.
St John's win bumped us up .04 points!
2 of the 3 happen. Although I’m sure they won’t be hurt too much by losing to a ranked team on the road. But we should move up in the rankings after this week.
When 5 of the last 7 games are against Top 20 teams, of course there is a lot of work left.
Also, until last night, Michigan State's best win was Iowa at home.
Most of the top teams have a a lot of work left. Not to the level of Iowa State, but not a road full of cupcakes.
Looks like Illinois has 1 more top 20ish game. UConn only one as well.
Michigan State 2. UNC has 3 more. Duke has 4 more. Purdue has 4 more. Kansas has 4 more. Houston has 3 more. Michigan has 5 more. Nebraska has 3 more. Arizona has 6 more. Florida has 3.
Everyone is going to have to prove it, but Iowa State is is a pretty good spot. If they finish regular season 28-4, I am certain they will be at least a 2 seed. Won't be easy but that doesn't even require an upset to happen.
28-4? Are they slipping in a double secret probation game no one knows about?
Agree. The floor right now, barring a total disaster, is 24-7 (11-7) with the most/only impressive wins being the two you noted. I'd be surprised if that's a #2 seed.
