#2 is going to be tough. Not sure why BYU gets no love. It will be hard for Gonzaga to fall, but that would be nice.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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1-1 for those games would be considered very good.
It is plausible Iowa St. and Purdue end up fighting for the last #2 seed.
Hopefully the committee sees the head-to-head as a ready tiebreaker.
agreed! I think it also means that Houston game is huge as well, having 2 wins over fellow seed line teams will be important.
In that case, do we need to beat Houston by more than what the Hilton bump is valued at?
Neutral court right now KP would probably have Houston by a fraction of a point, rounded up to one for Houston (they're 0.3 ahead in efficiency rating). KP has us as 3pt favorites in Hilton so that's a 3-4pt boost. If we only win by 1, does the edge go to Houston?
Realistically, there's a good chance the B12 tourney could be more impactful in breaking any ties.
Purdue does have 6 Q1 wins, though. They're 6-2 with 7 (current) games remaining.
We sit at 4-2 with (current) 6 games remaining.
If ISU and Arizona end up with the same record an ISU victory over Arizona in Tucson would certainly help.
Historically the committee has gone on the record as saying - when they aren't silent on it - that the conference championship tournaments affected who got in (bid stealing) but rarely had much affect on seeding, but I may be misremembering.
I think the bracketologists - especially the most vocal ones like Lunardi - put much more stock in tourney results than the committee ever has.
I think I remember hearing that line.
#10+ are set before the conference tournaments.
Those ~40 teams have already played themselves into the tournament. Reworking the entire bracket to accommodate the small changes from the CTs just isn't worth doing.
Can be "one more data point" as a useful tiebreaker for bubble teams, though, when they're often so close to each other in the computer rankings and trying to disentangle their records.
Most of them are going to lose in the first weekend anyways, but at least the committee is trying to be fair by having the "right" teams make it and thus claim that accomplishment.
It won't take much for Gonzaga to fall. A couple of upset losses will do some damage. Not many quad 1 opportunities left. They nearly had a quad 3 loss already in conference so if they were to get a couple of quad 2 or quad 3 losses, I could see them dropping to a 3 seed.
We do have 3 future Q2s that might sneak into Q1. We have 1 risky Q1 currently and 1 Q2 opportunity.
Purdue is pretty stable.
I don't think the committee looks at it that closely. It's wins and losses, not expected margins.
Still in good shape for a #2 seed even if #1 is gonna be hard!
Seems like every time I watch an ISU game there is a UConn game finishing up where they’re down to some unranked team and have to make a big comeback to get to overtime and win. That’s going to bite them in the a** sometime soon.
A 2 seed would be just fine and set ISU up for the opportunity at a special run in March like we've all been hoping for.
I do suspect Nebraska will falter a bit here with a few loses in the next few weeks and come back to earth. They're not as talented as their current projected seed. I also think UCONN will lose a few as well. Those are probably our most likely teams we can leapfrog on the seeding S-curve.
We gotta give Nebraska credit. They've improved in the computer rankings (#14 on Torvik now compared to Iowa St. at #9) and have banked a pile of wins with consistent play in the Big Ten.
They don't have many road games left. Torvik only has them as underdogs in two games.
The game on Tuesday might be for a #1 seed if the Cornhuskers can somehow pull it off. Michigan is still really good, but a worse Wisconsin team proved them mortal in Ann Arbor not long ago.
I think this is a reflection of their coach. They have the swagger that they can walk in anywhere and pull out a win which can be helpful but there is also a bit of we can sleep walk through 30 minutes and then turn it on whenever we want. That attitude gets teams burned by teams they shouldn't lose to. (Cincy, anyone?)
If WI's not hitting a bunch of threes they come back down to earth pretty quickly.
They were 9/37 last night in a home loss to USC. 37!
I watched Nebraska a bit ago and Fred's team looked pretty crisp and organized.
