Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Just beat UCF pretty easily who was coming off a victory over KU.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Glass half empty, they've been pretty shite the first 10 minutes of games:
WV - down 4 at 10 minute mark
HCU - up 1 at the 8 mm
Iowa - down 13 at 7 mm
Purdue - down 5 at 10 mm
Syracuse - down 2 at 9 mm
Baylor - down 8 at 7 mm
Then blew the doors off and won relatively comfortably.
Can't be having bad starts like that against top opponents. Gotta get that fixed if you want to make the FF.
Still 6 undefeated teams. I'll be honest, really thought Nebraska and Iowa State would drop this week as they had really tough road tests but passed.
I dont see Michigan or Arizona losing anytime soon as they have easy schedules the rest of Jamuary.
I dont see Michigan or Arizona losing anytime soon as they have easy schedules the rest of Jamuary.
Idk Barttorvik has Vandy as the 2nd best team so far excluding preseason bias. Can they keep it up not sure but they have played REALLY well so far
ISU is third on that ranking FYI so let's hope its somewhat accurate
Just needed The Defibrillator to revive the offense in 5 of those games.
If I were to choose I'd take a slow start over fast start about any day.
Obviously a few early shots falling to keep it closer would be great but imo the fast start can often be kind of hollow if it means like 4 threes falling that won't keep up.
Different team, era etc but iirc the 99-00 tended to be in tight games early and then would smother teams as the game went on.
Slow starts could also be partially from the opposing team coming out with intensity and playing well because of the number 3 next to our name. It also takes a little time for our style of play to wear teams out.
Feels like a top 8 right now that will be fighting over the 1 vs 2 seeds.
Michigan
Arizona
Iowa St.
Purdue
UConn
Duke
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Its possible Houston, BYU, Michigan, or Illinois could make a run during conference play, but feels pretty safe the four one seeds will come out of the above 8 teams.
Unless Michigan falls apart they are getting close to a lock. The winner of the Big 12 is very likely to be a one seed. The remaining five teams our resume and metrics stack up pretty well at this point. Feels like 4 losses will be the bubble for getting a one seed, 3 or less is a virtual lock.
Michigan
Arizona
Iowa St.
Purdue
UConn
Duke
Vanderbilt
Gonzaga
Its possible Houston, BYU, Michigan, or Illinois could make a run during conference play, but feels pretty safe the four one seeds will come out of the above 8 teams.
Unless Michigan falls apart they are getting close to a lock. The winner of the Big 12 is very likely to be a one seed. The remaining five teams our resume and metrics stack up pretty well at this point. Feels like 4 losses will be the bubble for getting a one seed, 3 or less is a virtual lock.
If Purdue and ISU have identical number of losses, unless ours are to Utah, Colorado and ASU, and they get the #1 seed and we don't, I'll be pissed. Bigly.
The only way they should be ahead of us is if their resume is enough above ours where we aren't next to each other on the s-curve. If we are close to each other when they scrub the head to head on their home court will carry a ton of weight.
Yeah, I haven't actually seen Vandy, so probably I am guilty of looking at the name on the jersey.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Going through an "easy" schedule can be tough for a top team in a major conference because it's sometimes hard to get your team up for them and especially in the Big 12, those teams are still pretty damn good.
Those are really the games that separate out the top teams because it is so easy to just come out flat in a game and then just stay that way until it is too late.
Not much to argue about here but I have to disagree with Pleta at worst being a push with Chatfield. Chatfield at the latter half of the season was our best fit at the 5. His ability to defend guards on the perimeter exceeds what Pleta can do. Chatfiled actually shot FTs at the rate Pleta was supposed to(~70%), but he hasn't proven that yet at ISU(~60%).
Don't get me wrong, I love Pleta and am glad we have him as just a freshman but I still think Chatfield was more valuable than Pleta is right now. I'm confident Pleta will figure more and more of it out under this staff's coaching.
How about an update:
Iowa State NET 3
15-0, 13-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
Home 9-0, Away 2-0, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 64, RPI SOS 157
KPI 10, SOR 2, WAB 7, BPI 5, POM 2, T Rank 6
Q1 5-0
..Q1a 2-0 (A 7 Purdue +23, A 39 BU +10)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 18 Iowa +4, N 31 St John’s +1, N 41 Creighton +18)
Q2 2-0
..Q2a 0-0
..Q2b 2-0 (N 83 Miss St +16, N 84 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (H 89 WVU +21)
Q4 7-0 (H 223 Grambling +40, H 252 Long Beach +31, H 302 HCU +28, H 308 EIU +25, H 341 Stonehill +39, H 348 FDU +38, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
8 Home, 8 Away
Q1 9 (3H, 6A)
Q2 5 (4H, 1A)
Q3 4 (1H, 1A)
Q4 0 (0H, 0A)
Upcoming schedule (next 10):
(Q1 5, Q2 5, Q3 0)
St 1/10 Q2b 66 OSU
Tu 1/13 Q1a @ 17 KU
St 1/17 Q2a @ 96 UC
Tu 1/20 Q2a 34 UCF
St 1/24 Q1b @ 66 OSU
Th 1/29 Q2b 71 CU
Sn 2/1 Q1b @ 65 KSU
St 2/7 Q2a 39 BU
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 43 TCU
St 2/14 Q1b 17 KU
Iowa State NET 3
15-0, 13-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
Home 9-0, Away 2-0, Neutral 4-0
NET SOS 64, RPI SOS 157
KPI 10, SOR 2, WAB 7, BPI 5, POM 2, T Rank 6
Q1 5-0
..Q1a 2-0 (A 7 Purdue +23, A 39 BU +10)
..Q1b 3-0 (H 18 Iowa +4, N 31 St John’s +1, N 41 Creighton +18)
Q2 2-0
..Q2a 0-0
..Q2b 2-0 (N 83 Miss St +16, N 84 Syracuse +31)
Q3 1-0 (H 89 WVU +21)
Q4 7-0 (H 223 Grambling +40, H 252 Long Beach +31, H 302 HCU +28, H 308 EIU +25, H 341 Stonehill +39, H 348 FDU +38, H 352 Alcorn +64)
Notes:
- ISU resume looking better with 2 Q1a and 3 Q1b wins.
- Iowa dropped to a Q1b game but was replaced by Baylor win.
- Miss St moved up to a Q2b game.
8 Home, 8 Away
Q1 9 (3H, 6A)
Q2 5 (4H, 1A)
Q3 4 (1H, 1A)
Q4 0 (0H, 0A)
Upcoming schedule (next 10):
(Q1 5, Q2 5, Q3 0)
St 1/10 Q2b 66 OSU
Tu 1/13 Q1a @ 17 KU
St 1/17 Q2a @ 96 UC
Tu 1/20 Q2a 34 UCF
St 1/24 Q1b @ 66 OSU
Th 1/29 Q2b 71 CU
Sn 2/1 Q1b @ 65 KSU
St 2/7 Q2a 39 BU
Tu 2/10 Q1b @ 43 TCU
St 2/14 Q1b 17 KU
Vanderbilt being top 15 in defensive efficiency is impressive, but if we're betting on who will have a better rating in mid February my money is on Otz's track record
This. 4 losses is still pretty difficult even with expect win percentages. Essentially need to hold serve at home and drop the likely losses @UA, @BYU, with maybe one dud. 3 or losses needs zero duds or steal 1-2 of the likely losses.
They're a lot of fun to watch. Fast pace, great offensive movement. Just fun basketball.
Good night for our Quad 1 and 2 wins with Creighton winning at Villanova and Mississippi State blowing out Oklahoma. Things can always change, but those looked like they might be Q2 and Q3 wins and now are in Q1 and Q2 respectively.
We are one of two teams (Vanderbilt) 5-0 in Q1 games this season. Duke is 5-1, no one else has more than four yet.
