Finally got ahead of Arizona again!
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
34.98 in Ken Pom would put us at 10th all time
I don't think quite. Losing at Kansas wouldn't let a 4 loss Iowa State drop that far.
I don't think Gonzaga runs the table. They have close wins against San Diego and Seattle. Their 6-1 quad 1 record versus 10-4 Iowa State might not be enough for Gonzaga. It'd be close.
UConn won't run the table. If they do, they would definitely be a 1 seed. Same thing with Duke.
Don't forget Purdue, BYU and Houston.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
And as of right now (if I'm counting correctly), we have 9 more quad 1 opportunities and Gonzaga has 3.
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Killyan was jawing with the bench too after his steal and dunk. The team is just so connected. I think the CEO left his mark on that bench and taught guys like Kelderman how you can impact the team from that position.
Yup. My 10-4 assumes Creighton becomes a Q1.And as of right now (if I'm counting correctly), we have 9 more quad 1 opportunities and Gonzaga has 3.
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Cyclonepride
Thought Police
Oh, I wasn't checking your math (I hadn't been following enough to know what you meant by 10-4). I was just curious about our opportunities in that regard vs Gonzaga, so I checked.
Best player is probably Jefferson, best shooter is Milan, best defender is probably Toure.
Most important player on this team is Tamin. And I don't think it's close. Just look at the first half when he sat with foul trouble. And it tends to be like that when he rests each game.
If you look at just the first ~4 minutes (until the first media TO), it's even crazier. We've had a half dozen games where we've scored 10+ points during that 1/10th of the game and several more where we've shutout or nearly shutout the other team. Last night it was 10-1 during that time period (part of a 24-3 run over ~10 minutes before and after HT)
If you had told me prior to the game yesterday that we get outrebounded, basically draw the turnover battle and Milan+Batemon go 0-5 from 3, I'd have said we lose by at least 15. Instead we won by 10.
Amazing job by the team to grind out that win, especially Tamin making big shot after big shot down the stretch. Per Torvik that was our WORST offensive game of the year and our BEST defensive game.
Let's assume the Mich is #1 in Midwest.
East: UConn or Duke
South: Duke or ISU
West: AZ or Zaga
If AZ wins Big12, and Duke and UConn dominate, those are your other #1s. HOU/ISU/Zaga would be #2s. And probably Purdue I suppose. Although I am not so confident about HOU right now, and there's a few other wildcards out there (BYU, Tech, MSU). I am not confident in Vandy maintaining.
If AZ doesn't win the Big12, they probably end up as #2 in West with Zaga the #1.
If either of UConn or Duke doesn't do so hot, then that makes more space for HOU or ISU depending on which ends up better. I think UConn sucking would help ISU the most - that would make space for Duke in the East, and give ISU a better shot at the South - assuming you want to avoid Michigan as long as possible.
If it ended today, I think ISU is probable #1 in the South with Duke as the #2. Or the reverse, more likely due to "brand". Either way, you're reward is playing Duke in the E8 at (checks notes)... Houston! That's not so bad, I just assumed it would be in effing Raleigh lol.
For as worked up as people get about offensive lulls and fatigue, is this not Otz's philosophy in a nutshell? "We won't always have an NBA-ready scorer like Baylor, and we won't be able to buy a NPOY like Michigan or BYU, but the rules of basketball only require that we keep our opponents from scoring more than us."
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I am NOT trying to take Sig's job, but I am just sitting at home (now that I am retired) and thought I would post this.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I was worried that we were due for a flat shooting night, and it's incredibly impressive that they found a way to win by 10 on the road through one of those.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I think OSU is way better than the 94.7% suggests. Don't get me wrong, I don't think they're a conference contender, but they do have some potential there. I also don't like playing them twice in a two week span.
Was just thinking this...that's an awfully high number for any conference game imo and Okie State isn't bad.
Different teams and all but they've also just been a terrible match up for ISU or ISU has not played very well vs. them.
And ISU is good but the last week itself has shown us some top ranked teams are absolutely capable of getting in trouble. Imo UConn and Michigan for starters were fortunate to have their opponents look like they forgot how to play basketball down the stretch.
It isn't the entire story of resume for any team, of course, but thru 1/7 games, only two teams are 5-0 in Quad 1: Iowa State and Vanderbilt. (Duke is the only other w/ 5 wins, 5-1).
Three are 4-0 in Q1: Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska. U-M has a leg up among those, 9-0 in Q1/Q2.
Three are 4-0 in Q1: Arizona, Michigan, Nebraska. U-M has a leg up among those, 9-0 in Q1/Q2.
If you watched the Texas A&M or UCF game they would look like a dangerous team, the rest of their schedule they have looked average at best and had been trending down until the UCF game.
