2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

Just dropping in the top 20 on Torvik right now for fun (removing preseason effects).

#3

Big 12 makes up 5/20 right now. Tech is down at #35 despite the big Duke win, but that is one that is going to help the conference generally and Iowa State specifically when March rolls around.



I'll point out TJ's best team was undeniably Rob Jones' senior year.



That team was #53 offense / #2 defense, though.

Damn good but lacked for offensive firepower and balance.

This team is #6 and #11 respectively -- those ranks look as a Final Four team.

Nothing is guaranteed. You play the games for a reason. But this team is really good. I didn't expect to so flawlessly absorb the loss of Gilbert and Jones as we have but we've done it.

 

[twincyties]

Just dropping in the top 20 on Torvik right now for fun (removing preseason effects).

#3

Big 12 makes up 5/20 right now. Tech is down at #35 despite the big Duke win, but that is one that is going to help the conference generally and Iowa State specifically when March rolls around.

View attachment 164295

I'll point out TJ's best team was undeniably Rob Jones' senior year.

View attachment 164296

That team was #53 offense / #2 defense, though.

Damn good but lacked for offensive firepower and balance.

This team is #6 and #11 respectively -- those ranks look as a Final Four team.

Nothing is guaranteed. You play the games for a reason. But this team is really good. I didn't expect to so flawlessly absorb the loss of Gilbert and Jones as we have but we've done it.

I thought we’d be better defensively but take a step back offensively. Was wrong about the latter.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Also the last #1 seed right now.

 

[danvillecyclone]

Just dropping in the top 20 on Torvik right now for fun (removing preseason effects).

#3

Big 12 makes up 5/20 right now. Tech is down at #35 despite the big Duke win, but that is one that is going to help the conference generally and Iowa State specifically when March rolls around.

View attachment 164295

I'll point out TJ's best team was undeniably Rob Jones' senior year.

View attachment 164296

That team was #53 offense / #2 defense, though.

Damn good but lacked for offensive firepower and balance.

This team is #6 and #11 respectively -- those ranks look as a Final Four team.

Nothing is guaranteed. You play the games for a reason. But this team is really good. I didn't expect to so flawlessly absorb the loss of Gilbert and Jones as we have but we've done it.

Thank you for your posts.

This team is Very Really awesomely good.

The word is Team. And they are operating as a highly efficient, yet explosive Team.

Offensively balance really is the key.

Gilbert and Jones had firepower, but there were instances when they would be inefficient. I’d say Gilbert with turnovers and Cujo not making shots.

Of course this is nitpicking, because they were both Plus players and could completely take over games individually.

this offense just doesn’t get stuck as much as prior seasons.

It seems , and I will nitpick again, when Jefferson gets the ball with his back to the basket, without an ISO, and more than 10 feet from the basket, he struggles. Especially when he is on the left and turns into the lane to his right hand.

TJ’s Defense has always been scheme, but when you can attack the ball screens athletically like we can, it completely changes the opponents ability to operate in comfort. Toure is athletically and technically elite in this.

The only way to truly beat us (besides hitting a lot of contested threes) is one-on-one dribble drive, without screens, to get to the rim, and that’s been hard to do.

I can go on and on and on.

There will be tests , and unfortunately losses, but this Team is playing great basketball and will only continue to improve.

Go Cyclones!

 

[VeloClone]

Technically true but we won exactly one game to get there

No they won 14 of 17 games to get there. If you didn't win your conference back then, you weren't going to the tournament. ISU went 9-1 in conference and finished tied with OU for the conference title. (OU and ISU split their games on the season.)

Stop minimizing the accomplishment.

 

[twincyties]

No they won 14 of 17 games to get there. If you didn't win your conference back then, you weren't going to the tournament. ISU went 9-1 in conference and finished tied with OU for the conference title. (OU and ISU split their games on the season.)

Stop minimizing the accomplishment.

I was speaking about the tournament itself and you, of course, know this.

To draw equivalents between a final four run then and a final four run in the modern era is just foolish.

It’s like Minnesota celebrating their football national championships.

 

[NENick]

I was speaking about the tournament itself and you, of course, know this.

To draw equivalents between a final four run then and a final four run in the modern era is just foolish.

It’s like Minnesota celebrating their football national championships.

Which they should.

 

[NoCreativity]

No they won 14 of 17 games to get there. If you didn't win your conference back then, you weren't going to the tournament. ISU went 9-1 in conference and finished tied with OU for the conference title. (OU and ISU split their games on the season.)

Stop minimizing the accomplishment.

57 different programs have made the Final 4 since it expanded in 1985. Another 36 programs made it between 1944 and 1995.

So if my math is correct that's 93 different programs who have made it since Iowa States last one in 1944.

Tell me again why anyone would care what happened in 1944? Were you at the game to witness it?

 

[twincyties]

Which they should.

You guys are hilarious. Talking about championships in an entirely different landscape is fine. Refusing to accept it was a completely different landscape an therefore not equivalent to today is insane.

 

[VeloClone]

7 of 10 remaining Quad 1 games on the road. Challenging.

I would expect nothing less. A home game has to be against a NET top 30 team to be Q1. A road game can be against any top 75 team to qualifiy as Q1. We are going to play a lot more top 75 teams versus top 30 teams.

Tough stretch on the horizon. ISU plays 3 games in 6 days from the 7th to the 12th two of them on the road and Q1a.

Wed 1/7 Q1a @ 39 BU
Fri 1/9 Q2b 72 OSU
Mon 1/12 Q1a @ 15 KSU

 

[VeloClone]

I was speaking about the tournament itself and you, of course, know this.

To draw equivalents between a final four run then and a final four run in the modern era is just foolish.

It’s like Minnesota celebrating their football national championships.

I was speaking of the accomplishment as a whole.

Advancing in the tournament to a final four is a lot harder today then it was back then. Getting in the tournament to even get the chance to advance to a final four was a lot harder back then.

 

[VeloClone]

You guys are hilarious. Talking about championships in an entirely different landscape is fine. Refusing to accept it was a completely different landscape an therefore not equivalent to today is insane.

Minnesota absolutely should celebrate their national championships, especially the 1960 one. A good portion of that team is still alive and should be celebrated.

Does that have any relevance to the state ot their program today? No, not in the least, but it happened and everyone then was playing in the same landscape and they came out on top. Celebrate it.

 

[NENick]

You guys are hilarious. Talking about championships in an entirely different landscape is fine. Refusing to accept it was a completely different landscape an therefore not equivalent to today is insane.

I don't think anyone is equating the different eras. You seemed to say those championships earned in a different time aren't worth celebrating. I completely disagree. The playing field was equal for the teams of that era.

 

[CySmurf]

You guys are hilarious. Talking about championships in an entirely different landscape is fine. Refusing to accept it was a completely different landscape an therefore not equivalent to today is insane.

That banner looks pretty nice regardless of the year on it...it's still regarded by all parties as a final four appearance. (And yes...this is an old photo)

 

[twincyties]

That banner looks pretty nice regardless of the year on it...it's still regarded by all parties as a final four banner.
View attachment 164334

Jesus, people. I’m not saying it wasn’t a final four. My point is that it’s not equivalent in modern terms.

 

[CySmurf]

Jesus, people. I’m not saying it wasn’t a final four. My point is that it’s not equivalent in modern terms.

sooo...should we just count it as .10 of 1 final four? .25 of 1 final four? .50 of 1 final four? In the record books 1 is 1. So, in that sense, it Is equivalent.

 

[twincyties]

sooo...should we just count it as .10 of 1 final four? .25 of 1 final four? .50 of 1 final four? In the record books 1 is 1. So, in that sense, it Is equivalent.

No. Two things can be true. Yes, it is a final four. Also, the entirety of the season and the format of the tournament is not equivalent to one today.

This is not hard.

 

[CySmurf]

No. Two things can be true. Yes, it is a final four. Also, the entirety of the season and the format of the tournament is not equivalent to one today.

This is not hard.

It is also possible people are taking a little offense that you're sounding a bit disrespectful to that era in 1944 that everyone else in 1944 had to play in also and ISU made it to that final four...does it take more wins to get there now? Of course. But I'm sure the players and fans were just as excited to get there then as the players and fans now. That's all I'm saying.

 

[twincyties]

It is also possible people are taking a little offense that you're sounding a bit disrespectful to that era in 1944 that everyone else in 1944 had to play in also and ISU made it to that final four...does it take more wins to get there now? Of course. But I'm sure the players and fans were just as excited to get there then as the players and fans now. That's all I'm saying.

I hear you. For the 12th time, I'm pointing out the obvious differences that everyone here is certainly aware of.

Here is the context of the discussion:

* People talking about how we've made a ton of tournaments without a deep run. Run of the mill debate on whether or not this is or isn't a problem.
* Some shares a list of schools of teams with most tournament appearances without a final four. They're clearly talking about "modern era" of the tournament as we think about it now.
* Someone says "that's not true, we made one in 1944" as though (a) we don't know this and (b) that's somehow relevant to the conversation taking place.
* I point out the difference.
*. A bunch of people get their panties in a bunch.

 

[cyclones500]

How ISU's resume looks next to the rest of the top 12 in NET:

Michigan NET 1 AP 2
11-0, 9-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 45, RPI SOS 11
KPI 1, SOR 2, WAB 3, BPI 3, POM 1, T Rank 1
Q1 4-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 3-0, Q4 2-0

Arizona NET 2 AP 1
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 38, RPI SOS 64
KPI 2, SOR 1, WAB 2, BPI 4, POM 2, T Rank 4
Q1 4-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 0-0, Q4 6-0

Duke NET 3 AP 6
11-1, 11-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 21, RPI SOS 28
KPI 8, SOR 8, WAB 5, BPI 1, POM 6, T Rank 8
Q1 4-1, Q2 1-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0

Iowa State NET 4 AP 3
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 75, RPI SOS 225
KPI 11, SOR 3, WAB 7, BPI 6, POM 3, T Rank 7
Q1 3-0, Q2 2-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 6-0

Gonzaga NET 5 AP 7
12-1, 12-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 32, RPI SOS 88
KPI 10, SOR 6, WAB 4, BPI 2, POM 4, T Rank 6
Q1 3-1, Q2 3-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

Vanderbilt NET 6 AP 11
12-0, 12-0 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 73, RPI SOS 106
KPI 3, SOR 7, WAB 6, BPI 13, POM 8, T Rank 5
Q1 3-0, Q2 3-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

Purdue NET 7 AP 5
11-1, 9-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 37, RPI SOS 48
KPI 9, SOR 9, WAB 9, BPI 8, POM 5, T Rank 9
Q1 3-1, Q2 1-0, Q3 4-0, Q4 3-0

UConn NET 8 AP 4
12-1, 10-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 6, RPI SOS 12
KPI 4, SOR 4, WAB 1, BPI 9, POM 7, T Rank 2
Q1 4-1, Q2 2-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 4-0

BYU NET 9 AP 10
12-1, 12-1 NC, 0-0 Conf
NET SOS 58, RPI SOS 15
KPI 5, SOR 11, WAB 11, BPI 10, POM 11, T Rank 19
Q1 3-1, Q2 2-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0

Illinois NET 10 AP 20
9-3, 8-2 NC, 1-1 Conf
NET SOS 10, RPI SOS 14
KPI 22, SOR 22, WAB 16, BPI 12, POM 9, T Rank 10
Q1 3-3, Q2 1-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 4-0

Nebraska NET 11 AP 13
12-0, 10-0 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 115, RPI SOS 55
KPI 6, SOR 5, WAB 10, BPI 25, POM 22, T Rank 23
Q1 1-0, Q2 5-0, Q3 1-0, Q4 5-0

Michigan State NET 12 AP 9
11-1, 9-1 NC, 2-0 Conf
NET SOS 24, RPI SOS 21
KPI 7, SOR 10, WAB 8, BPI 20, POM 13, T Rank 12
Q1 4-1, Q2 0-0, Q3 2-0, Q4 5-0

KPI does not like ISU.

Thank you for compiling that. A lotta work!!

I notice Gonzaga crept back to #4 in the thru 12/23 rank (NET), above ISU, but not a lot of opportunity to stay at that level with remaining schedule. SMC is top 30 currently, only two other WCC teams in top 100.

I won't claim Iowa State can maintain its position, obviously WAY too early. But if we continue to perform close to current level, we'll be in a good shape.