2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[CascadeClone]

Zero % chance that happens. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. The conference winner is getting a #1 seed.

Very likely, but not 0%.

Michigan, UConn, Vandy, Zaga, Duke, Purdue, Mich St maybe even UNC all contenders.

You could have a scenario with Michigan, UConn, Duke all being 1s without much of a stretch, and the 4th could be any of: Vandy if they roll the SEC, Purdue if they are a close 2nd to UM, the Zags if they win out...

But the other half of that is-- ISU, UH, AZ would ALL have to be so damaged by in-conference play for none of them to get a #1... like they would all have to go 14-4 or something.

I agree its not very likely, but like a 10% chance. (using BT's percentages, it is 17%, if I remember my probability stuff rght)

 

[twincyties]

Lol, pretty high up there in terms of assists, to be fair. But for a helpful comparison, I also marked roughly where he's at when Killyan Toure is his primary defender (in blue). View attachment 164208

How is assist percentage measured?

Curious if ISU having several really good distributors plays into this (whereas Smith from Purdue seems to dominate that role).

 

[bawbie]

Perfect visual illustration of why TJ wants him taking 8-10 a game. Thanks for sharing - very interesting

I very much didn’t expect him to be successful at taking 8 per game - and I certainly didn’t expect him to do so at this rate. He’s at close to 56% on the season now!!!

 

[bawbie]

How is assist percentage measured?

Curious if ISU having several really good distributors plays into this (whereas Smith from Purdue seems to dominate that role).

Assist percentage is the % of baskets that the player assisted on when they were on the floor, I think.

 

[aobie]

How is assist percentage measured?

Curious if ISU having several really good distributors plays into this (whereas Smith from Purdue seems to dominate that role).

I'm guessing it's similar to how KenPom defines assist rate:
Assist Rate (ARate): This is assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court.

 

[twincyties]

Thank you both. That makes sense.

So in theory, we’re not going to have someone out near Smith on that chart because our ball distribution is more diversified.

As a basketball fan and a statistics nerd I love this stuff. Thanks to all of you that share here

 

[RezClone]

 

[NoCreativity]

Being ranked in the Top 25 for 39 consecutive weeks, being in the tourney his first 4 years including sweet 16 is NOT a major problem.

Your analysis is flawed in that it takes into consideration all of ISU MBB history (and we have been in a Final 4 if you are doing that). There is no analyst anywhere that would look at TJs book of work and say he has a problem with the tournament performance.

Visit this again in 3-4 years and there might be concern.

This has nothing to do with TJ, lots of really good teams and coaches at Iowa State have failed to get there. Yeah, I definitely expected TJ to get to multiple Final 4s in his first 4 years inheriting the worst team in major college basketball.

I dont care what happened in 1935 or whenever ISU last made the Final 4. Your analysis makes zero sense. Nebraska has always been bad, Iowa made a Final 4 in the early 80s, Utah in 1996 i think. UCF has always sucked so not sure where you're going with that.

The point i made very clear is that we are up there with BYU and Tennesse has having the the most opportunities to get to a Final 4 and haven't gotten it done. I don't know what other tangent you are getting off on trying to compare to Nebraska or UCF.

 

[inCyteful]

This has nothing to do with TJ, lots of really good teams and coaches at Iowa State have failed to get there. Yeah, I definitely expected TJ to get to multiple Final 4s in his first 4 years inheriting the worst team in major college basketball.

I dont care what happened in 1935 or whenever ISU last made the Final 4. Your analysis makes zero sense. Nebraska has always been bad, Iowa made a Final 4 in the early 80s, Utah in 1996 i think. UCF has always sucked so not sure where you're going with that.

The point i made very clear is that we are up there with BYU and Tennesse has having the the most opportunities to get to a Final 4 and haven't gotten it done. I don't know what other tangent you are getting off on trying to compare to Nebraska or UCF.

So what is it?

The water in Ames?
Our colors?
The way the fans yell?

Of course it has everything to do with the coach and it is ludicrous to suggest it doesn't.

You said this is becoming a major problem. You made that point very clear, correct. And you can believe what you want.

My point is that is that it is NOT a major problem and I pointed to other MBB programs that have major problems as examples of what I consider major problems. Got it, you don't agree with them but you can't understand the point I was making, well, then, I can understand why you might believe ISU has a major problem in that it hasn't reached a Final Four in a long time. You can't even get the fact correct that ISU hasn't been to a Final Four - I am sure it would hard for your to admit that though.

 

[NoCreativity]

So what is it?

The water in Ames?
Our colors?
The way the fans yell?

Of course it has everything to do with the coach and it is ludicrous to suggest it doesn't.

You said this is becoming a major problem. You made that point very clear, correct. And you can believe what you want.

My point is that is that it is NOT a major problem and I pointed to other MBB programs that have major problems as examples of what I consider major problems. Got it, you don't agree with them but you can't understand the point I was making, well, then, I can understand why you might believe ISU has a major problem in that it hasn't reached a Final Four in a long time. You can't even get the fact correct that ISU hasn't been to a Final Four - I am sure it would hard for your to admit that though.

Where did I say they've never been to one? I said i dont care about stuff that happened 85 years ago because it was probably a 6 team tournament or something.

I just looked it up and 57 different programs have made it since they expanded to 64 back in 1985.

I dont know what the answer is. All I know is its starting to be an issue when we've had as much success in basketball over the last 40 years or so and for whatever reason it just hasn't happened.

Im not blaming it on anyone, Im just stating simple facts that we are one of the 3 best programs in the sport that haven't gotten there.

 

[clone52]

This has nothing to do with TJ, lots of really good teams and coaches at Iowa State have failed to get there. Yeah, I definitely expected TJ to get to multiple Final 4s in his first 4 years inheriting the worst team in major college basketball.

I dont care what happened in 1935 or whenever ISU last made the Final 4. Your analysis makes zero sense. Nebraska has always been bad, Iowa made a Final 4 in the early 80s, Utah in 1996 i think. UCF has always sucked so not sure where you're going with that.

The point i made very clear is that we are up there with BYU and Tennesse has having the the most opportunities to get to a Final 4 and haven't gotten it done. I don't know what other tangent you are getting off on trying to compare to Nebraska or UCF.

I guess I wouldn't classify it as a major problem. It does mean we have been in the tournament a lot. There are far worse problems to have than not having made the final 4

 

[NoCreativity]

I guess I wouldn't classify it as a major problem. It does mean we have been in the tournament a lot. There are far worse problems to have than not having made the final 4

Yes, like I said before, we are up there with BYU and Tennessee as the teams with the most Ncaa tournament games without a Final 4.

 

[inCyteful]

Where did I say they've never been to one? I said i dont care about stuff that happened 85 years ago because it was probably a 6 team tournament or something.

I just looked it up and 57 different programs have made it since they expanded to 64 back in 1985.

I dont know what the answer is. All I know is its starting to be an issue when we've had as much success in basketball over the last 40 years or so and for whatever reason it just hasn't happened.

Im not blaming it on anyone, Im just stating simple facts that we are one of the 3 best programs in the sport that haven't gotten there.

Did I misread this line from your post?

I think I looked last year and we were up there with Tennessee and BYU for having the most tournament games and zero Final 4s.

We know you think it is an issue, man we know you think this is an issue. I am sorry you have to struggle through this.

Good lord, in the same post you say "Where did I say they've never been to one?" and in the same post you say ?I'm just stating the simple facts that we are one of the 3 best programs in the sport that have never gotten there."

Good luck man, whew.

 

[clone52]

Yes, like I said before, we are up there with BYU and Tennessee as the teams with the most Ncaa tournament games without a Final 4.

Our point was that you called it a MAJOR problem (my emphasis). I wouldn't call it remotely close to a major problem yet

 

[inCyteful]

Our point was that you called it a MAJOR problem (my emphasis). I wouldn't call it remotely close to a major problem yet

He didn't call it a major problem except where he called it becoming a major problem.

 

[NoCreativity]

I think I looked last year and we were up there with Tennessee and BYU for having the most tournament games and zero Final 4s

Why would anyone care what happened in 1944?

Oh boy, my deceased grandfather got to read about it in the papers back when he was a teenager about how they made it to the Final 4 of an 8 team tournament.

 

[madguy30]

Why would anyone care what happened in 1944?

Oh boy, my deceased grandfather got to read about it in the papers back when he was a teenager about how they made it to the Final 4 of an 8 team tournament.

There's a whole bunch of people that don't care or remember who made it like ten years ago.

 

[clone52]

He didn't call it a major problem except where he called it becoming a major problem.

And I wouldn't call it becoming a major problem either.

 

[NoCreativity]

There's a whole bunch of people that don't care or remember who made it like ten years ago.

You're likely very correct, but I can guarantee you their fans remember all of them very well.

So lets just go back to 1985 then, that's the beginning of the modern 64/68 format.

 

[NENick]

Why would anyone care what happened in 1944?

Oh boy, my deceased grandfather got to read about it in the papers back when he was a teenager about how they made it to the Final 4 of an 8 team tournament.

Let it go. Making the final 4 is really hard and takes some luck. In all those years, how often has ISU had enough talent for this to be even a remote possibility? Of those handful of years, injuries and unlucky draws have derailed the team, along with maybe 2 or three others that were head-scratchers.
It's not a major problem.