Satisfied, sure and it would be a lot of fun.
But I'm not going to use it as a crutch for happiness or call it some sort of actual problem.
I'm on here a lot and all (too much) and love seeing ISU have success, but simply put, there's more to life.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Satisfied, sure and it would be a lot of fun.
But I'm not going to use it as a crutch for happiness or call it some sort of actual problem.
I'm on here a lot and all (too much) and love seeing ISU have success, but simply put, there's more to life.
The tournament is a crap shoot. No idea how this can be a 'problem' ffs..
Jerome Tang made an E8. I have faith Otz will get there.
Having "NC" on ignore makes this place much more pleasant.
I agree with the premise that if you build teams that can compete for big12 championships, you will have tourney success - just not every year. The teams with the most early exits? KU, Duke, etc that MAKE the tourney every year.
What i think some feel, the perception, is that ISU hasnt made a E8 or FF, even tho they have had several teams in the last 10-15 years that were capable. They havent broken thru, not once.
Some of that has been bad luck, like Niangs foot or playing teams in their backyard. And some have been ISU dropping a turd in a big game (Pitt, Prohm).
But we havent had the good luck, like a quality opponent having a bad night vs ISU, or facing 3 double digit seeds to make the E8 (eg Baylor).
Just like the early exits, if you have a good team every year, eventually you have some good luck to go with, and you reach that promised land. Sure hope its this year that we finally are good AND lucky.
What i think some feel, the perception, is that ISU hasnt made a E8 or FF, even tho they have had several teams in the last 10-15 years that were capable. They havent broken thru, not once.
Some of that has been bad luck, like Niangs foot or playing teams in their backyard. And some have been ISU dropping a turd in a big game (Pitt, Prohm).
But we havent had the good luck, like a quality opponent having a bad night vs ISU, or facing 3 double digit seeds to make the E8 (eg Baylor).
Just like the early exits, if you have a good team every year, eventually you have some good luck to go with, and you reach that promised land. Sure hope its this year that we finally are good AND lucky.
We get some terrible draws also. Seems like we get put into the same bracket as "the best team in the last 5 years" often, Uconn in 2024 snd Kentucky in 2012.
It's probably inevitable we'll be the 2 in Michigan's bracket this year since everyone thinks they are a legendary team.
Then years where it looks like a favorable draw where we could make some noise we dont even show up in the first round (UAB, Pitt, Ohio St).
Took a look at three point shooting this morning. From Barttorvik, a graph of players with at least 25 3PA this season, charted on three-point percentage and three-point attempts per 100 possessions.
Momcilovic certainly sticks out, and Batemon is among a pretty elite tier as well. The red dots toward the bottom are, from left to right, Heise, Lipsey, Toure, and Jefferson.
Momcilovic certainly sticks out, and Batemon is among a pretty elite tier as well. The red dots toward the bottom are, from left to right, Heise, Lipsey, Toure, and Jefferson.
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Perfect visual illustration of why TJ wants him taking 8-10 a game. Thanks for sharing - very interesting
I know this is all just analytics and no human judgment in there, but interesting that is projects the winner of the Big 12 regular season to be a 2 seed.
Zero % chance that happens. The Big 12 is the best conference in the country. The conference winner is getting a #1 seed.
The projected seeds on whatever site/tool that is always seem a little off to me.
Nebraska not having won a tournament game in last 5 decades is a major problem.
Iowa not getting past first weekend with top 10 ranked teams is a major problem.
Colorado, Utah and UCF performance in the Big XII is a major problem.
Your coach throwing a water bottle at fans is a major problem.
Being ranked in the Top 25 for 39 consecutive weeks, being in the tourney his first 4 years including sweet 16 is NOT a major problem.
Your analysis is flawed in that it takes into consideration all of ISU MBB history (and we have been in a Final 4 if you are doing that). There is no analyst anywhere that would look at TJs book of work and say he has a problem with the tournament performance.
Visit this again in 3-4 years and there might be concern.
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Another fun graph, this one of assist and turnover rates (link). Lipsey and Jefferson are the standouts here. Awesome improvement, as Tamin's turnover rate was 17.1 last season, and Jefferson's was 19.5.
That Toure turnover number is maybe a bit concerning for what he'll have to deal with in Big 12 play. But he also has a much lower turnover number against top-50 opponents so far (though also a lower assist rate). I assume that speaks to staff encouraging him to be more aggressive in the buy games, so he can learn by doing.
That Toure turnover number is maybe a bit concerning for what he'll have to deal with in Big 12 play. But he also has a much lower turnover number against top-50 opponents so far (though also a lower assist rate). I assume that speaks to staff encouraging him to be more aggressive in the buy games, so he can learn by doing.
Lol, pretty high up there in terms of assists, to be fair. But for a helpful comparison, I also marked roughly where he's at when Killyan Toure is his primary defender (in blue).
Fun to play these guessing games but the most important games are yet to be played. How about a four way tie for first place in the Big 12? Is it possible that four other teams could Net score above them all? Possible yes, probable no. There is probably a greater chance that the Big 12 has two #1 seeds than none. AP #1 Purdue is now 6th in the Net, can they recover to top four?, of course, but the top 4 in the 12 will be fighting the same fight with a loss.
Always more fun (and more closely followed) when your team is in the conversation and so far this season has been a blast!. I think we have 3 games in January on the Peacock and I'm gonna spring for the one-month so as not to miss a minute of action. We have suffered some disappointments in the past, but what if we don't have any major ones this this year? Special season.
