2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
FDU is #353 on Torvik out of 365 (easy to remember!) teams.
They might be the worst team in the country.
Torvik has the spread at 37.2 points.
Yikes.
They might be the worst team in the country.
Torvik has the spread at 37.2 points.
Yikes.
Sign me up for 12-6 in the Big 12 right now.
If that is how regular season unfolds, I would sign on the line which is dotted.
Such an interesting season with most of the COVID seasons done, the sport got 1.5-2 years younger!
Houston is the top dog in the conference, then I see 5 teams playing for second:
Houston is the top dog in the conference, then I see 5 teams playing for second:
- BYU
- AZ
- TECH
- KU
- ISU
Did it though? The courts are handing out 7th-8th years of eligibility like it's candy.
I haven't looked at historical numbers, but that looks like a relatively more difficult out of conference slate. At least 5 games against current top-50 teams. Maybe I'm reading too far into it.
The OOC slate is one of the hardest we’ve done in a while.
I see this as a very good OOC schedule to get ready for the big 12 grind. Very good mixture of very quality opponents and teams looking for a paycheck
Up to #8 in this engine! And #2 in the Big 12!
Optimistic sure but not wildly so.
Go 4-2 between MSU, Creighton, STJ, Las Vegas #3, Purdue, and Iowa and we're in really good shape.
Expected wins based on this projection = 3.317 (giving 0.5 for Las Vegas #3)
Optimistic sure but not wildly so.
Go 4-2 between MSU, Creighton, STJ, Las Vegas #3, Purdue, and Iowa and we're in really good shape.
Expected wins based on this projection = 3.317 (giving 0.5 for Las Vegas #3)
I think Monday will be super interesting.
Kind of a goofy game last night. Sort of the opposite of FDU.
Offense popped off but the defense was lacking.
FDU was the opposite. Stuffed them in a locker but the offense didn't click.
Hopefully they bring the FDU defense and Grambling St. offense to the Pentagon.
121.1 - 83.4 = +37.7
#1 Houston (on Torvik) was +37.4 last season
I don't think we're that good, but I think the high-end potential is there.
Offense popped off but the defense was lacking.
FDU was the opposite. Stuffed them in a locker but the offense didn't click.
Hopefully they bring the FDU defense and Grambling St. offense to the Pentagon.
121.1 - 83.4 = +37.7
#1 Houston (on Torvik) was +37.4 last season
I don't think we're that good, but I think the high-end potential is there.
As always, the question is who will put it all together come March. But if you never flash the potential it's very unlikely you'll pull a rabbit out of a hat. So, I'm encouraged that they've already shown they can lock a team down or step up scoring if the defense is subpar. I do think the offense will vary more this season based on opponents' personnel, i.e., do they have an athletic big to match Jefferson or someone long who can make Momcilovic work
I'm a bit surprised the number of possessions was only 75. it seemed like it would be more than that. I didn't think the defense was that bad, except in a could stretches (5-10 minutes into the game and the last 5 minutes). Statistically I think it's all okay - you'd like to hold them under 40% from the field, but 42.3% isn't horrible. The only thing that really stands out is giving up 23 FTAs.
Also, that Munoz kid is going to play at a high major school next year - he was really smooth, although it seemed like they forgot about him for stretches. That could be a good SWAC team if they play through him consistently.
What site is this from? Really good stuff here. Thanks
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/
We've had some criticisms on here regarding their treatment of weird edge cases (e.g., giving Iowa St. a win expectation of 95% against somebody like FDU when it should be 99.9%) in the past.
Seems to be more realistic and better now, though.
We get home+away with KU, BU, and OSU. We get UH & TT at home. BYU & AZ on the road.
So IF you split with KU and BU, AND split the other 4 top team games... AND then win ALL the rest... that's 14-4. But man, that's super optimistic.
Feels like 11-7 to me. 20-10 overall.
Haven't posted this one lately, but here is the conference projection on Torvik.
Good shot (58.4%) at the "top four" bye we just missed last season.
Win distribution. Houston is somehow an even bigger Death Star this time.
Roughly tiering it out...
---
Conference favorite, strong national title contender = Houston
Conference in the race, strong Final Four contender = BYU, Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State
Conference dark horse, strong second weekend contender = Tech, UC, Baylor, OSU, WVU
On the bubble = TCU, Arizona State, Utah
Probably gonna suck by Big 12 standards = UCF, KSU, Colorado
Good shot (58.4%) at the "top four" bye we just missed last season.
Win distribution. Houston is somehow an even bigger Death Star this time.
Roughly tiering it out...
---
Conference favorite, strong national title contender = Houston
Conference in the race, strong Final Four contender = BYU, Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State
Conference dark horse, strong second weekend contender = Tech, UC, Baylor, OSU, WVU
On the bubble = TCU, Arizona State, Utah
Probably gonna suck by Big 12 standards = UCF, KSU, Colorado
