We'd need to lose to them is the thing.
Which might not hurt us too badly this late in the season in the semifinals after a big win against Cincinnati and the implied win against BYU. But I'd find it funny to go 4-0 against the Buffs.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
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We'd need to lose to them is the thing.
Which might not hurt us too badly this late in the season in the semifinals after a big win against Cincinnati and the implied win against BYU. But I'd find it funny to go 4-0 against the Buffs.
They tried to address that by breaking both Q1 and Q2 into Q1a and Q1b as well as Q2a and Q2b effecitvely making the top half broken into "eighths" rather than quads. When push comes to shove the committee has those breakdowns to look at.
Looks like they fixed the 98% thing.
See? Nerds like it when you give them constructive criticism.
I think this estimate is high for our chances against BYU. They're very good and we have the injuries to Lipsey and Gilbert to worry about. Maybe our big men can crush them this time.
See? Nerds like it when you give them constructive criticism.
I think this estimate is high for our chances against BYU. They're very good and we have the injuries to Lipsey and Gilbert to worry about. Maybe our big men can crush them this time.
I unfortunately think that a q3 loss trumps the q1 gains... need some help from those 2 mid majors to lose. The next "best" team with a q3 loss is #22 Clemson, which is a steep drop and an easy thing to point to, to drop us down a seed line.
Who knows how the committee members will see that. At the end of the day seeding is all done by a series of votes by the committee members and trying to figure out how each one weighs something like that is impossible. It's still very much an subjective process that requires no consensus on the committees part on how much weight to give different aspects of a resume. One member could say "That's a bad quad 3 loss" and another could say "It's barely a quad 3 loss, K-State played much better in the second half of the season, and ISU was dealing with injuries." IMO I think that loss looks like an outlier and gives the latter argument more strength, but I am also incredibly biased.
Agreed, them losing to Texas (on the bubble) is the equivalent of ISU losing to Cincy (Also on the bubble). In fact they were both 5 vs 13 games.
Looking at Bracket Matrix, I think most of the seeding is pretty cemented by now, but I think if Purdue/Maryland/Wisconsin wins the Big 10 Championship, they could potentially jump A&M for the final 3 seed.
Also, turns out we don't even need Atlantic 10 teams to lose to drop. That conference's NET is so bad that St Joe's won and still dropped 2 spots putting K-state back to 75. Considering at least one of St Joes/George Washington has to lose, I'd be shocked if K-state isn't still in the top 75 by Sunday. They are both underdogs in their quarterfinal games today.
K-State finishing 75 or better in the NET REALLY helps our case!
Saying a prayer for that, and losses for Wisconsin and Purdue! Although, I'd settle for just Wiscy
Saying a prayer for that, and losses for Wisconsin and Purdue! Although, I'd settle for just Wiscy
GW is 119. George Mason is who needs to lose. They are 74 (they play George Washington in the battle of the Georges today).
I am driving and can’t scroll. Are we basically locked into a 3 seed at his point or do we need certain teams to lose. A&M losing had to have helped a bit I think. Wisconsin losing to ucla would be nice.
I don't think this is entirely accurate. Sure, St joes winning 'hurt' them last night, but it will ultimately help them as it gets them another game, this time against dayton and im pretty confident they wont drop due to a relatively high quad 2 game. Losing puts it completely out of reach, wining continues to give chances to improve. Same thing w/ george mason today - if they win, they may drop a bit, but then they get a shot at dayton/st joes. I do agree that it is unlikely, but i just can see a world in which it comes true.
I also wonder if Yale losing to Princeton (quad 3) or in the ivy championship drops them 4+ spots behind kstate. Thats probably a long shot, though.
Baylor made it to 31 in the NET—so close... As others have noted, the only team that could potentially bump Kansas State past 75 is Saint Joe's, who is a ~1.5 point dog to Dayton tonight. So Dayton winning would be doubly beneficial for ISU. IMHO the only thing that would make me nervous about a 3 seed is Wisconsin winning the Big Ten tournament, though that sure didn't help ISU last season. Famous last words but I'm not worried about Purdue given they've struggled more than Wisconsin down the stretch and likely won't win the tournament
It would help a lot if Wisconsin and Kentucky lose today, potentially relevant are Arizona and Maryland.
Looks like we'll be in Milwaukee with Kentucky / Wisconsin as the other seeded team unless they both jump us, in which case we'd be in Denver with TTU as the other seeded team. IMO Denver with TTU is way better for fans because tickets would be cheaper, it's still drivable in a single day, and has plenty of direct flights.
nothinglike.net
Looks like we'll be in Milwaukee with Kentucky / Wisconsin as the other seeded team unless they both jump us, in which case we'd be in Denver with TTU as the other seeded team. IMO Denver with TTU is way better for fans because tickets would be cheaper, it's still drivable in a single day, and has plenty of direct flights.
Nothing Like Net Bracket Predictor
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I think prior to A&M losing yesterday, we had a little bit to be worried about. But now I think the only way a Big 10 team is jumping to a 3 seed is passing A&M.
This would definitely be helpful in locking down Milwaukee, and not being shipped out to Denver as the 3 seed.
Yeah, Baylor is 1 spot from Q1B, but Cincy, ASU and KSU barely hung on to Q1B. TCU in Hilton missed Q2B by 3 spots. All in all, probably about as best as could be with the results.
