This is like the rule of 71 where the team that gets to 71 points first wins 95% of games.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Seeing most places have ISU as a 99% chance to make the tournament. Curious why it isn't 100%.
IF they lose out, they'd be 21-11 (includes Big12 tourney loss) with 7 Q1 wins and a 11-9 conference record. That still feels like a 5-6 seed.
IF they lose out, they'd be 21-11 (includes Big12 tourney loss) with 7 Q1 wins and a 11-9 conference record. That still feels like a 5-6 seed.
Torvik right now
Win out
Lose at Houston but otherwise win out
Huge game. A win probably moves you up a seed line and keeps you in contention for a #1 seed.
Win out
Lose at Houston but otherwise win out
Huge game. A win probably moves you up a seed line and keeps you in contention for a #1 seed.
Team Rankings can be squirrely sometimes. They're not the strongest forecasters.
I keep posting them because I am signed up for the automatic email updates and out of a sense of tradition. This thread became an annual thing because I kept posting those updates in the bracketology threads and @Cyclonepride suggested we have a consolidated thread for MBB analytics discussions.
I take some pride in the fact we are probably one of the few fan fora that has one.
I get metrics are metrics, and the Big12 has benefitted more times than not over the last couple of years, but 6 SEC teams in the the three seed or better feels suspiciously over ranked.
Just going back three years the most Big12 teams got in 3 seeds or better is 3, and becomes 4 if you include Pac12 Arizona.
I think that's just a statistical thing or a way to represent that they aren't actually in the tournament. Nobody is at this point, so it can't be 100%.
What shocks me is the three SEC #1 seeds.
But nobody else save Duke is making a strong case to be a #1 seed as of now.
Houston or Iowa St. winning out and winning some games in KC might do it.
Maybe the committee will want to do SEC/SEC/ACC/Big 12 just for appearances.
That also has 4 SEC teams ahead of us in the win out scenario which I highly doubt they would have 3 #1 seeds from the same conference.
The game Saturday might be for that 4th #1 seed.
Watch out on those Q1 wins. Baylor and UCF are one spot from being quad 2. Arizona State, Iowa and Kansas are actually not that far from quad 2 and if they don't turn things around, they likely will be quad 2. Marquette should be okay as a quad 1, but if they go on a slide, they could drop to a quad 2.
If would be surprising, but not out of the realm of possibility for us to have only a single quad 1 win in 2 weeks.
And we're about to drop two Big 12 games next year.
We've taken our SOS for granted so long with the top-to-bottom strength of the conference.
Not anymore. This could become a problem. Heck, it already is.
No, but quads are not the end all be all.
The most likely scenario is this.
Texas Tech
Marquette
Kansas
Iowa
Those 4 are pretty solid. KU would have to go 1-4 and Iowa would have to go winless.
This next group would be right on the edge if things go chalk. One or two games swing each of them.
Baylor
BYU
Arizona State
UCF
Kansas State
Pure chalk is 6 quad 1. A low of 4 and a max of 7 is most likely. A perfect storm could lead to a low of 2 and a high of 8.
Yes. But the Big East challenge is ending.
So Purdue is replacing Marquette. We've still got three in LV and one with Iowa.
So we're still net down two "good" games unless other news comes out.
Yeah, i think dropping from 20 to 18 is a knee jerk move and a bad one.
I get wanting more of a break, but the conference should have just followed the big 10 and scheduled a couple conference games before winter break.
Honestly I don't think it's systemic, just quirky this year. Colorado upsetting UConn hurt. A win against UConn Or Memphis could have been quad one.
The big 12 schedule was quirky too. We basically have 10 lost games.
@utah
@BYU
@TCU
@Cinn
@Baylor
Houston
Texas Tech
Arizona State
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
7 of those missing games would be quad 1 and wed be favored in at least 5. That's 70%
Out of our current 20 conference games, currently 55% are quad 1 and it's likely to end the year at 40 or 45%
Even if we drop to 18 games, it's really unlikely that our schedule would get skewed to to that extreme.
A drop to 18 is probably good for exposure if they get replaced by decent non-con games. Dropping a couple ESPN+ games for something that might end up on Big 10 network or maybe CBS or NBC helps for eyeballs even if it doesn't help money wise.
