It’s all normalized by # of possessions, and I think the possession count is prorated down to 40 minutes. So it shouldn’t matter.
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
Not so much on the #1 seeding, but after watching the Houston / KU game, I was thinking about matchups between ISU and Houston - and I think they are fascinating.
Uzon - Lipsey : Slight (?) advantage ISU - I'm not sold on Uzon, but analytics like him better than I do. He has an offensive advantage over Tamin this year, and better Assist Rate and Turnover Rate numbers - but Lipsey is a much better defender.
Cryer - Gilbert: Huge advantage ISU - Keshon absolutely owns Cryer. In the three matchups last year, Cryer went 7-31 (22%) with 3 assists and 8 turnovers.
Sharp - Jones: Draw - Just a crazy good matchup between two guys who have taken big leaps this year (btw: how is Sharp only a Jr?) Sharp has crazy efficiency numbers - but Jones has higher usage.
Roberts - Jefferson: Draw - The other doozy of a great matchup. I said a draw, but analytically Jefferson has a clear advantage, but Robert's experience makes up for some of it to me.
Tugler/Francis - Jackson/Chatfield: Draw - lumping the bigs together, ISU has a clear offensive advantage (mainly Jackson) and Houston has a clear defense/rebounding advantage
Wilson/Arceneaux - Heise/Watson: advantage Houston - lumping the non-post bench players together, Houston has a clear advantage on offense, ISU has maybe a slight advantage on defense? I haven't seen Wilson/Arceneaux play defense enough.
but then the X-factor is Milan. If he can play, there's no one from Houston that brings anything like his game.
Well, that was waaay too much thought about a game that's still almost 4 weeks away - but it's still a long time until gametime today. Go clones
Agreed. Kids are tought this in like junior high basketball. If you do not have a time out you try to get it to the other end and make it messy.
Might as well post another update while we are waiting for the night cap game...
Iowa State NET 6 (2nd in Big 12 – UH 3)
Overall: 17-2 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 7-1
NET SOS: 28, NET NonCon SOS: 86
Q1 6-2
..Q1a 3-1 (1 N Auburn L-2, 11 A TTU W+1OT, 8 H KU W+17, 18 H Marquette W+11)
..Q1b 3-1 (43 A WVU L-7, 59 A ASU W+15, 28 H BU W+19, 62 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 3-0
..Q2a 1-0 (74 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 2-0 (65 H UCF W+25, 103 A CU W+10)
Q3 2-0 (78 H UU W+23, 103 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (202 H UNO W+32, 231 H UMKC W+26, 297 H JSU+42, 311 H UI Indy+35, 338 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 57 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 84.6
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 65.9
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 57 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 79.4
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 55 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 66.5
Notes
Iowa State NET 6 (2nd in Big 12 – UH 3)
Overall: 17-2 NonCon: 10-1 Big 12: 7-1
NET SOS: 28, NET NonCon SOS: 86
Q1 6-2
..Q1a 3-1 (1 N Auburn L-2, 11 A TTU W+1OT, 8 H KU W+17, 18 H Marquette W+11)
..Q1b 3-1 (43 A WVU L-7, 59 A ASU W+15, 28 H BU W+19, 62 A Iowa W+9)
Q2 3-0
..Q2a 1-0 (74 N Dayton W+5)
..Q2b 2-0 (65 H UCF W+25, 103 A CU W+10)
Q3 2-0 (78 H UU W+23, 103 N CU W+28)
Q4 6-0 (202 H UNO W+32, 231 H UMKC W+26, 297 H JSU+42, 311 H UI Indy+35, 338 H Morgan St+27, 364 H MVS+39)
ISU
Low Score: 57 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 84.6
OPP
Low Score: 44 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 65.9
ISU (conf only)
Low Score: 57 High Score: 108 Ave Score: 79.4
OPP (conf only)
Low Score: 55 High Score: 84 Ave Score: 66.5
Notes
- ISU in top 7 of most results based (KPI, SOR, WAB) and predictive (BPI, POM, T-Rank) metrics.
- Big 12 doesn’t have a single team undefeated vs. Q1. ISU’s 6-2 mark is the best Q1 record.
- 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 8 A KU (Q1a)
- 15 A UA (Q1a)
- 15 H UA (Q1a)
- 65 A UCF (Q1b)
- 103 H CU (Q3)
- 102 H KSU (Q3)
- 81 H TCU (Q3)
- 27 JAN - 15 A UA (Q1a)
- 01 FEB - 102 H KSU (Q3)
- 03 FEB - 8 A KU (Q1a)
- 08 FEB - 81 H TCU (Q3)
- 11 FEB - 65 A UCF (Q1b)
- 15 FEB - 48 H UC (Q2a)
- 18 FEB - 103 H CU (Q3)
- 22 FEB - 3 A UH (Q1a)
- 25 FEB - 110 A OSU (Q2b)
- 01 MAR - 15 H UA (Q1a)
- 04 MAR - 38 H BYU (Q2a)
- 08 MAR - 102 A KSU (Q2b)
Is there any data that around how lucky/unlucky we are when it comes to buzzer beaters? Feels like we’re freakishly unlucky but I wonder how true that is.
Kenpom has ISU luck factor at -.027, which is 250th place (ie bad but not horrific)
AZ is -.040, worse than ISU.
Houston's is much worse at -.050, 293rd.
Auburn is +.077, 49th.
UCF was highest P5 I could find, +.133, 14th.
Is it still a thing that in-season injuries are considered for seeding purposes where the injured person (Milan in our case) is back in the lineup and losses occurred during the time he was out? Just curious if that factors in at all.
Not if you're Iowa State;-)
jk
It is supposed to be taken into account. In the past the committee has mentioned it as a factor in seeding.
Yes, it can but Milan is 6th on the team (Torvick player scoring) for the season.. Given we already have a huge hill to climb being in Iowa, a non-traditional power, and this year's perception of the conference, I doubt the suits move the needle much.
However, if we are essentially tied with someone else's resume come selection Sunday, we "should" be able to move up based on the injury to our #5 starter
It’s not just about scoring though. People around the country know how much he provides for scoring just spacing wise. He is an elite 3 point shooter. That completely changes how we are defended. It will absolutely be taken into account.
Still highly doubt we are a 3 seed.
Unless the bottom drops out for a bit, I agree. And I really don't think that will happen.
Team Rankings is 177 out of 179 for accuracy with bracketology. Not sure you should put much relevance in their site.
Me posting it is not me endorsing it. Sort of a tradition at this point, though, and they're nice enough to send out automatic emails "the morning after" every one of our games.
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That's a measure of W-L record vs. analytical expectations, I think. So close loses would factor into it - but it doesn't specifically measure "lucky shots"
Just like that Arizona is up to #14 in Kenpom. Somehow not ranked coming into this week. Probably be in the top 20 or top 15 if they win this weekend.
My non-analytical take is we are 1-1 as far as luck goes in end of game situations. Won at Tech and lost at UA. I don't really consider Broome's put back luck, just a good play by him and bad rebounding by us.
