2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[CychiatricWard]

Good? Yes.

Great? Maybe not outside of at Kansas.

In comparison... what's our best win?

Marquette at home? Baylor at home? Kansas at home? Tech on the road? Iowa on the road?

Good. But nothing shimmering like at Kansas.

I was more speaking about the Big 12 race than the seeding race, though, even if the two are linked. Houston is 8-0 and shows no signs of slowing down. Iowa St. is 7-1 and has a real hard one on Monday night, still has to go to Phog Allen, and still has to go down to Houston to play on their court.

Them tripping up against UCF or Kansas finishing them off when they had a 99%+ win expectation to even it out or give Iowa St. an advantage would have been nice when the conference schedule almost spots them one game with the single matchup being on their floor. But they didn't slip up.

So we gotta win some really hard games.

Games that'll win you the conference and land you a #1 seed if you win 'em.

Kansas and tech are a 3 spot difference in net ranking. A win at tech is very similar to a win at Kansas plus we’ve beat them, Marquette, and Baylor (granted all at home) but as of now are better wins then anything else they have. Their schedule outside of Kansas has been easy comparatively.

 

[bawbie]

Kansas and tech are a 3 spot difference in net ranking. A win at tech is very similar to a win at Kansas plus we’ve beat them, Marquette, and Baylor (granted all at home) but as of now are better wins then anything else they have. Their schedule outside of Kansas has been easy comparatively.

To that end - the analytics LOVE Houston so much that a win in Phog Allen was a below-expectation outcome for Houston. Torvik has it as one of their best offensive games, but one of their worst defensive performances of the year.

 

[bawbie]

They are deeper. They've got 10 guys playing 11+ mpg

Not in conference play. They play 8. Freshman Mercy Miller is the 9th guy and he's played 10 min in 2 conference game - he's averaging ~7. No one else is playing more than scrub minutes.

 

[Letterkenny]

Kansas and tech are a 3 spot difference in net ranking. A win at tech is very similar to a win at Kansas plus we’ve beat them, Marquette, and Baylor (granted all at home) but as of now are better wins then anything else they have. Their schedule outside of Kansas has been easy comparatively.

That win at Texas Tech keeps looking better and better. Kenpom #11 now. That was a big time win.

 

[CoachHines3]

That win at Texas Tech keeps looking better and better. Kenpom #11 now. That was a big time win.

We 100% stole that game lol

 

[Sigmapolis]

We 100% stole that game lol

To be fair Houston stole that game against Kansas.

Our win expectation got down to 6.9% (NICE!!!) against Tech when Hawkins made a free throw to up them up 70-73 with 0:20 on the clock. It took Gilbert scoring coast-to-coast in a few seconds, Chance McMillian missing one of the free throws, and the Lipsey/Jefferson miracle at the end to force the tie.

Houston had a 0.9% win expectation against Kansas. All they had to do was inbound the ball without a turnover and make 1/2 free throws and the win. Heck, they're still in pretty good shape if they don't commit a live-ball turnover. They probably don't even need to make the free throws if they're fouled. Either situation would at least allow them to set their defense up to disrupt Houston taking a last-second heave.

Oops. LOL!

They might as well have thrown the ball out of bounds on the other end of the court. At least then Houston has to burn time bringing the ball down the court and Kansas can play actual defense.

 

[CychiatricWard]

To be fair Houston stole that game against Kansas.

Our win expectation got down to 6.9% (NICE!!!) against Tech when Hawkins made a free throw to up them up 70-73 with 0:20 on the clock. It took Gilbert scoring coast-to-coast in a few seconds, Chance McMillian missing one of the free throws, and the Lipsey/Jefferson miracle at the end to force the tie.

Houston had a 0.9% win expectation against Kansas. All they had to do was inbound the ball without a turnover and make 1/2 free throws and the win. Heck, they're still in pretty good shape if they don't commit a live-ball turnover. They probably don't even need to make the free throws if they're fouled. Either situation would at least allow them to set their defense up to disrupt Houston taking a last-second heave.

Oops. LOL!

They might as well have thrown the ball out of bounds on the other end of the court. At least then Houston has to burn time bringing the ball down the court and Kansas can play actual defense.

Kansas literally did everything wrong to lose that game. Still insane they lost that game.

 

[Cloned4Life]

Not in conference play. They play 8. Freshman Mercy Miller is the 9th guy and he's played 10 min in 2 conference game - he's averaging ~7. No one else is playing more than scrub minutes.

Which is deeper than they were for key stretches of last year And their bench players are productive, which also plays into the term "deep". Arceneaux and Francis are Starter level coming off bench.

They have a damn good squad. I am hopeful we can compete with them and beat them in their place, and if we do - it will be our best win in years.

 

[bawbie]

Kansas literally did everything wrong to lose that game. Still insane they lost that game.

Absolute choke job.

 

[bawbie]

Which is deeper than they were for key stretches of last year And their bench players are productive, which also plays into the term "deep". Arceneaux and Francis are Starter level coming off bench.

They have a damn good squad. I am hopeful we can compete with them and beat them in their place, and if we do - it will be our best win in years.

I've lost the plot a bit on this conversation - but it should be clear that in saying Houston isn't better than last year - last year's team was #2 in the country per the analytic sites and may very well have won it all if not for the injuries.

I'm just saying they aren't BETTER than that.

 

[bawbie]

Erik Haslam at haslametrics has a metric called Paper Tiger Factor, which he defines as:
"Measure of a team's ability to play up to the competition; Positive values indicate teams that perform better against superior competition; Negative values indicate teams that perform better against inferior competition"


These are the lowest ranked PTF teams in the country (out of 364). A very BigXII centric cluster at the bottom of this list - but I find Arizona and Houston very interesting.

FTR, ISU has a PTF of 2.29, good for 14th nationally - easily the highest in the BigXII and only Florida of the "elite" teams is higher. We were 338th last year. I'm not sure there's any correlation to success in the tourney based on this metric.

 

[mj4cy]

To be fair Houston stole that game against Kansas.

Our win expectation got down to 6.9% (NICE!!!) against Tech when Hawkins made a free throw to up them up 70-73 with 0:20 on the clock. It took Gilbert scoring coast-to-coast in a few seconds, Chance McMillian missing one of the free throws, and the Lipsey/Jefferson miracle at the end to force the tie.

Houston had a 0.9% win expectation against Kansas. All they had to do was inbound the ball without a turnover and make 1/2 free throws and the win. Heck, they're still in pretty good shape if they don't commit a live-ball turnover. They probably don't even need to make the free throws if they're fouled. Either situation would at least allow them to set their defense up to disrupt Houston taking a last-second heave.

Oops. LOL!

They might as well have thrown the ball out of bounds on the other end of the court. At least then Houston has to burn time bringing the ball down the court and Kansas can play actual defense.

Kansas could even have turned it over by chucking the ball down the court to their guy and have it go off his hands and that'd have won it for them.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I was primarily talking about getting a 1 seed, and that is the first thing you mention. Our win at Tech is very much on par with the win at KU as long as you don't get swallowed up by the myth about KU and "The Phog", and those other wins you mention are better than anything Houston has. Not only should we clearly be seeded ahead of Houston now, but they have ground to make up.

Winning the conference matters to some extent, but the deck is stacked against us with our only meeting at their place, so I'm not worried as much about that. If we can keep it within one loss of them I still think we will have a much better resume than Houston at the end of the day. I think we need to win one of those tough remaining road games to get the one seed, but I'm fine with that. If we want to be a one seed we should win one of those.

If we look at this as objectively as we can with the data we have...

Houston advantages
---
more losses (so far) and a "not great" loss against #40 San Diego St.
probably going to look better in the efficiency metrics
probably going to win the Big 12 regular season
probably going to win a head-to-head game
already won in Lawrence

Iowa St. advantages
---
fewer losses (so far) and no bad losses
still has to play in Tucson tonight and Lawrence
probably going to be handed a loss in Houston
has home field in KC but that's no guarantee and the committee devalues CT games
Houston still has road trips to Arizona, Tech, and Baylor
already won in Lubbock

It's gonna be close. Iowa St. might have a better CV but will likely have a head-to-head loss. Houston is likely going to look better in the computers. The committee could throw it either way.

Could be the difference between #4 or #5 on their snake... so a #1 seed or not.

 

[VeloClone]

They might as well have thrown the ball out of bounds on the other end of the court. At least then Houston has to burn time bringing the ball down the court and Kansas can play actual defense.

To be totally accurate it has to touch someone in bounds or it comes back to where the throw in originated. But just tipping it would be enough to force the throw-in on the other end.

 

[Sigmapolis]

To be totally accurate it has to touch someone in bounds or it comes back to where the throw in originated. But just tipping it would be enough to force the throw-in on the other end.

Okay. I did not know that rule.

But yeah... run your four guys to the other end of the court.

Chuck a Hail Mary. One of three things will happen.

Out of bounds? Houston has the ball but the length of the court to go against a set defense.

Your ball? They foul/you win probably even going 0/2 from the line.

Their ball? Obviously a mad scramble but they're 50'+ from a decent shot.

The ONE thing you can't do is a live-ball turnover on your half the court.

...exactly what Kansas did.

There are 999 ways to close out that game and KU found the 1/1,000 to not to.

 

[VeloClone]

To that end - the analytics LOVE Houston so much that a win in Phog Allen was a below-expectation outcome for Houston. Torvik has it as one of their best offensive games, but one of their worst defensive performances of the year.

I have always thought that the analytics should count any OT win as a one point (or even zero point) win with the losing team having the score at the end of regulation. Does the ~40 additional points scored by each team in a 5 overtime game really accurate reflect the offense and defense being played?

 

[VeloClone]

Okay. I did not know that rule.

But yeah... run your four guys to the other end of the court.

Chuck a Hail Mary. One of three things will happen.

Out of bounds? Houston has the ball but the length of the court to go against a set defense.

Your ball? They foul/you win probably even going 0/2 from the line.

Their ball? Obviously a mad scramble but they're 50'+ from a decent shot.

The ONE thing you can't do is a live-ball turnover on your half the court.

...exactly what Kansas did.

There are 999 ways to close out that game and KU found the 1/1,000 to not to.

I'm with you. Sometimes a runout toward your basket is the best play when the other team is playing hard deny defense in the backcourt.

Also this is a game where no matter which team lost you can say that they lost it at the FT line. Houston left a ton of points at the line, especially in regulation. They were 4-13 in the second half. They hit a respectable number and they win going away. Kansas totally **** the bed in OT at the line where they could have shut down the tiny, tiny glimmer of hope just hitting one of two in a two shot opportunity.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I have always thought that the analytics should count any OT win as a one point (or even zero point) win with the losing team having the score at the end of regulation. Does the ~40 additional points scored by each team in a 5 overtime game really accurate reflect the offense and defense being played?

Most basketball analytics don't even look at W-L to be fair.

They're looking at net points per possession.

OT games have more possessions so are weighted correctly.

 

[VeloClone]

Most basketball analytics don't even look at W-L to be fair.

They're looking at net points per possession.

OT games have more possessions so are weighted correctly.

Fair enough, I am talking more about ratings that include scoring margin and offensive and defensive ratings.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Fair enough, I am talking more about ratings that include scoring margin and offensive and defensive ratings.

I'm not sure there's much of a distinction there.

Offensive rating minus defensive rating is scoring margin.