2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

VeloClone

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I appreciate your hope to combine a ski vacation with an ncaa tournament ISU game, but you know if the season goes the way we all hope it does they are going to Milwaukee. I think the NCAA just automatically selects the closest city, but even if the AD has a say there is zero chance they choose Denver over Milwaukee.
You are correct, the AD doesn't have a say.
 

CascadeClone

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I think the "you don't take a possession off on defense" mentality gives you an easier path through the first weekend. As you mentioned, the Royce team was a #8 seed and bumped into #1 and eventual national champion Kentucky early. The #6 Prohm team had to play #11 Ohio St. in Tulsa (a game I went to) in the first game rather than having some sacrificial lamb low-major AQ in that first game. Ohio St. wasn't a great team that year, but they had P6 athletes and played in the Big Ten and not in some hapless low-major league.

I have never seen a more poorly coached game. Absolute malpractice. OSU only had that one guy, and we just played their style all game. Atrocious.
 

Dgilbertson

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Exactly right - the difference between #5 and #8 in AdjO is ~0.3 ppg. We actually went up slightly in KenPom AdjO - but Florida, Kentucky, Gonzaga and Villanova all put up monster offensive games and jumped up hugely.

On Defense there's only a 0.8 ppg difference in AdjD between #8 (us) and #15 (WVU).

We are now one of two teams (Duke) with KenPom Offense and Defense in the Top 10 - there are 7 teams with both in the Top 20 - basically the Final Four contenders at the moment:

- Auburn
- Duke
- Tennessee
- ISU
- Gonzaga
- Illinois
- Marquette

Bruce Underwood is a crazy underrated coach - he lost EVERYONE from the team that beat us last year, started over from scratch with a bunch of transfers and eastern European players and is back in the KenPom top 10.
I was glad when he left the Big12
 
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cyclones500

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I appreciate your hope to combine a ski vacation with an ncaa tournament ISU game, but you know if the season goes the way we all hope it does they are going to Milwaukee. I think the NCAA just automatically selects the closest city, but even if the AD has a say there is zero chance they choose Denver over Milwaukee.
Yeah, Denver suggests to me we're 4 seed at best.
 
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NorthCyd

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One exception: Number 1 overall seed can choose 1st weekend and region preference. If ISU happens to get that status, I still 95% assume Milwaukee-Indy.
The trip to Milwaukee is much shorter. Fans could get their easier and the team would probably just bus there. It's important recruiting ground for our staff. It's in our timezone vs mountain time for Denver where it is more likely to get a late window game. Wichita is a distant second for preference of first weekend sites and then Denver is the speck on the horizon in 3rd place.
 

Sigmapolis

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I have never seen a more poorly coached game. Absolute malpractice. OSU only had that one guy, and we just played their style all game. Atrocious.

They had a freshman guard who eventually had a cup of coffee in the NBA --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duane_Washington_Jr.

But yeah, that game was "stop Wesson and you win." And they didn't stop him.

Going 6/22 from three (and 3/17 outside of Wigginton) didn't help.

I was glad when he left the Big12

I'd actually rather he was still around.

The more good teams in the Big 12 the better.

Oklahoma St. has been a basket case since he left.

There's no reason he couldn't have had them in the Top 25 every season. Gallagher-Iba is like Hilton during the 00s. It's quiet now, but it would come alive if they had a competitive team.
 
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1UNI2ISU

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Yep, I agree
  1. Indy
  2. San Fran
  3. Newark
  4. ATL
Threats in SF are Gonzaga, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon. However, I would rather play ANY of those teams in SF versus having to play UCONN, Duke, or UNC in Newark or playing a top SEC school in ATL.

Final Four is in San Antonio... We'd travel there as well as any fanbase!

First Round preferences for me are:
  1. Denver
  2. Milwaukee
  3. Wichita - Unless paired with Kansas, then I don't want it
  4. Seattle
You don't want Seattle. Worst 1st/2nd round site I've ever been to. Downtown doesn't care about the tournament at all and every one we interacted with seemed super annoyed that the tournament was in town. Just didn't feel like the celebration of the tournament that you get literally everywhere else.
 

1UNI2ISU

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The trip to Milwaukee is much shorter. Fans could get their easier and the team would probably just bus there. It's important recruiting ground for our staff. It's in our timezone vs mountain time for Denver where it is more likely to get a late window game. Wichita is a distant second for preference of first weekend sites and then Denver is the speck on the horizon in 3rd place.
All 4 sites have, more or less, the same TV windows on Thursday/Friday and CBS/WBD have shown over and over they don't care about geography when assigning Saturday/Sunday windows. See the 10:15 AM local tip in SLC last year while Pittsburgh's 1st game didn't start until 8:30 PM local time.
 

NorthCyd

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All 4 sites have, more or less, the same TV windows on Thursday/Friday and CBS/WBD have shown over and over they don't care about geography when assigning Saturday/Sunday windows. See the 10:15 AM local tip in SLC last year while Pittsburgh's 1st game didn't start until 8:30 PM local time.
Ok, still doesn't change priorities one bit.
 
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madguy30

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I have never seen a more poorly coached game. Absolute malpractice. OSU only had that one guy, and we just played their style all game. Atrocious.

The ol' 'lead with 3-4 minutes left but we know how this will go' schtick.

It didn't help that a few guys seemed to fall back into playing like they had a foot out the door after going nuts in KC.

That and the '14/15 team are up there with weird groups that you just never knew who would show up, game to game or even between TV time outs.
 

ForeverIowan

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Dang shame it isn't a Des Moines first weekend and Kansas City regional year. I dont see this team losing in either of those buildings. Cant even imagine the scene in Kansas City playing for a trip to the Final Four.
 

inCyteful

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Selfishly I would love to have them play in Denver to make it easier for us to attend. However, this year is serious business. This team doesn't need a break or good location to get to Final Four. Wherever they need to go to take care of business. If we get the selection committee shaft and have to play an SEC in Atlanta, I think team avenges the MSU fiasco and beats the SEC in their backyard. I would not mind traveling there to witness that first hand.
 

madguy30

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The trip to Milwaukee is much shorter. Fans could get their easier and the team would probably just bus there. It's important recruiting ground for our staff. It's in our timezone vs mountain time for Denver where it is more likely to get a late window game. Wichita is a distant second for preference of first weekend sites and then Denver is the speck on the horizon in 3rd place.

I can't remember if it was because Bucky fans were able to get a jump on tickets for the session but I was at the first round game in 2022 and it was a pretty small ISU crowd. The place was all UW red for their game following though.

Hopefully they have the process figured out better for getting games going on time.

The ISU/UW two game session was a super late start that night.
 

cyclones500

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They had a freshman guard who eventually had a cup of coffee in the NBA --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duane_Washington_Jr.

But yeah, that game was "stop Wesson and you win." And they didn't stop him.

Going 6/22 from three (and 3/17 outside of Wigginton) didn't help.

Also allowed Ohio State to get 12 offensive rebounds. That was nearly one-third of OSU's REB total. OSU outrebounded ISU 38-31, not ideal, but seemed worse.

If I recall, several O-rebs happened at moments of "could get over the hump" or "get another stop."
 
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CydeofFries

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Also allowed Ohio State to get 12 offensive rebounds. That was nearly one-third of OSU's REB total. OSU outrebounded ISU 38-31, not ideal, but seemed worse.

If I recall, several O-rebs happened at moments of "could get over the hump" or "get another stop."
All I remember from that game is Tyrese getting called for a kick when it clearly was his hand that deflected the pass which was another one of those get over the hump moments.
 
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Cyclonepride

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Dang shame it isn't a Des Moines first weekend and Kansas City regional year. I dont see this team losing in either of those buildings. Cant even imagine the scene in Kansas City playing for a trip to the Final Four.
I honestly don't think this team cares where they're playing. Sure, they'd love to have a ton of fan support, but I think they're on a mission.
 

PizzaTheHutt

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After tonight’s game against Utah, we have the toughest 8 game stretch of the conference season IMO. I think we go 6-2 in those but even going 5-3 after tonight’s game is still a W with how it sets up schedule wise.

If we keep improving and stay healthy I think it’s realistic we finish the final 9 games of the schedule 8-1. Throw in a random extra L and a 15-5 to a 17-3 conference record is doable. 1 seed is very much in reach.
 

Sigmapolis

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Dang shame it isn't a Des Moines first weekend and Kansas City regional year. I dont see this team losing in either of those buildings. Cant even imagine the scene in Kansas City playing for a trip to the Final Four.

Des Moines (Drake) hosts the first weekend for 2028.

Kansas City (Big 12) hosts the second weekend for 2027.

Site for 2029+ haven't been announced.

A DSM/KC combination isn't likely to be seen again this decade.

Could have these, though...

2027 = Omaha OR Minneapolis / KC

2028 = Des Moines / Dallas (not great but it's the best they have) or Detroit (ditto)

All I remember from that game is Tyrese getting called for a kick when it clearly was his hand that deflected the pass which was another one of those get over the hump moments.

I remember that play well. It happened right in front of me. Nick and Tyrese were goin' the other way two-on-zero had they not called the stupid kicked ball when it was clearly a clean steal.

I don't remember on which exact possession it occurred... but my oh my having an easy two in a close back-and-forth game like that to blow it open just a little bit would have been really nice.

I honestly don't think this team cares where they're playing. Sure, they'd love to have a ton of fan support, but I think they're on a mission.

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