2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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Aug 10, 2011
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Ya. It was an all timer. The kind of game coaches get fired for. Ts and Ps for the franimal.

They missed the DeVries bus but just in time to catch the McCollum one (if they're smart).

(Iowa is not smart.)
 

CychiatricWard

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Sep 27, 2017
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Torvik gave the Baylor game a 99 and ADJD of...

76.5

Best of the season so far!

Up to #15 defense with preseason effects and #22 defense counting only data from this season.

They won't be that good every night. Houston has the best defense in the country so far and gives up an adjusted 84.4 points per 100 possessions. But if they can maintain something like this...

...the sky really is the limit.
I’ve been saying for weeks that it’s only a matter of time for this team to gel defensively. They are getting there. We won’t be a Houston, but we don’t have to be either. Our offense is night and day different from the last couple of years. Special indeed.
 

Thomasrickj

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Feb 26, 2012
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Kenpom has us as the number 8 offense and number 8 defense right now. I think we were 14 on defense before the game. Huge defensive jump. We went down three spots on offense though.
 
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Clone95

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Aug 13, 2019
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We were all over the Baylor players today. No open looks. Jefferson, Jackson, and Chatfield have the size and athleticism to be really good, Heise is a plus defender and Milan has improved his d. There’s no reason we can’t be a top 10 D this year.
 

CySmurf

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Jul 14, 2011
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WIll always take improvement but last year we were 52nd in Off and 1st in Def, currently we are 3rd in offense and 18th in defense. I think the latter beats the former 2 out 3 times. I wouldn't want to risk where we are to rank higher in one or the other ratings if that means altering the lineup to be more defensive.
That's the beauty of March Madness...you never really know how it will play out in a one and done scenario. History has shown though if you're efficiently good on offense and defense your odds to win games in the tournament are better than if you're only efficient in one but not the other.
 

nfrine

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Mar 31, 2006
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We were all over the Baylor players today. No open looks. Jefferson, Jackson, and Chatfield have the size and athleticism to be really good, Heise is a plus defender and Milan has improved his d. There’s no reason we can’t be a top 10 D this year.
But Frannie McCaffery says defense is over rated...:mccaffery:
 

rosshm16

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I think these movements show how closely grouped some of these teams are analytically right now.
Relatedly, it's odd to me how our "offensive efficiency" seemingly gets worse relative to other teams after a game where we scored 74 points on 49 shots with 49/48/67% shooting.
 
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iastatefan1

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Jan 24, 2016
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Relatedly, it's odd to me how our "offensive efficiency" seemingly gets worse relative to other teams after a game where we scored 74 points on 49 shots with 49/48/67% shooting.
It's adjusted for opponent and Baylors defense is not great. It's also why our d rating went up a lot since baylors offense coming in was very good analytically and we smothered them.
 

bawbie

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Mar 17, 2006
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I think these movements show how closely grouped some of these teams are analytically right now.
Exactly right - the difference between #5 and #8 in AdjO is ~0.3 ppg. We actually went up slightly in KenPom AdjO - but Florida, Kentucky, Gonzaga and Villanova all put up monster offensive games and jumped up hugely.

On Defense there's only a 0.8 ppg difference in AdjD between #8 (us) and #15 (WVU).

We are now one of two teams (Duke) with KenPom Offense and Defense in the Top 10 - there are 7 teams with both in the Top 20 - basically the Final Four contenders at the moment:

- Auburn
- Duke
- Tennessee
- ISU
- Gonzaga
- Illinois
- Marquette

Bruce Underwood is a crazy underrated coach - he lost EVERYONE from the team that beat us last year, started over from scratch with a bunch of transfers and eastern European players and is back in the KenPom top 10.
 

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