West Virginia knocking off KU in Lawrence is big for the Big 12 race!
2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I think part of it is they don't have to play 110% effort lock down the entire game now. The offense doesn't have to be bailed out for 8 minute stretches. They can 'pace' themselves as a team and have the lock down effort ready for the last 8 minutes.
Would still like to see the improvement on defense. Historically teams need to have a top 25 defense to win a title. I think we will get better but disagree with this thought.
It all depends on whether the positioning and strategy clicks with everyone, mainly Jefferson and Jackson.
Makes WVU the currently leader IMO. But without Tucker they will drop some. That is not a team I am exited for ISU to play.
Both the Iowa game and Colorado game the defense wasn't great through most of it. Then the last 3-4 minutes we shut down both of them.
If teams run good offense and move the ball well, they'll get open shots against us if they are patient. Down the stretch, I think players tend to tighten up a bit, lose patience, , try to dribble more rather than pass, and generally force things more. This plays right into our hands trying to close out games.
No way WV has the talent to keep up with the top of the conference for 20 games. They look dangerous on any given night though.
KenPom liked the results of today's games for us, at least if you look at % chances to win individual games.
West Virginia is 45th in KenPom. Im not saying that means everything, but I'd be somewhat surprised if they are a major player in the Big 12 race.
Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Baylor, Cincy, TTech, Zona likely to be the major players.
That was a really bad loss for Kansas. Cant lose a home game to a middle of the pack conference team.
It's pathetic is what it is. A sign of someone with no confidence.
No it is. It is someone who needs to cushion the blow in case of a loss, a coping mechanism. Pretty sad.
No, it isn't.
It's looking at things realistically because sports isn't 'Well they'll just cruise to a win because they're ranked high and won by 30 a month ago so everything's taken care of'.
ISU has been leaky for the last three weeks on defense and were again last night at times.
They're really good and should have a nice season but some some limitations will lead to losses. I guess I'll keep coping like that.
Not sure if this site was posted this year yet, but another one I like to track the conference race. Doesn't get updated in real time though, just daily.
https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/B12/index.html
https://bboilercbb.github.io/conferences/B12/index.html
Definitely helps but...
(1.) Obviously it is very early. We need to worry about winning our own games (and Baylor on Saturday is no pushover... nobody is in this league) before we settle into more of a horserace.
(2.) I still think Houston is going to be our main competition. We play Kansas home/home, which likely will be a 1-1 split, and go to Houston. But Houston doesn't have to come to Hilton.
That's almost like spotting Houston one game in the conference race (and a very strong head-to-head tiebreaker if they win for seeding in the Big 12 tournament, though technically my understanding of the conference race is only your win/loss record matters and not any tiebreakers for hardware).
I don't want to be a Negative Nancy about the #3 in the country according to the AP poll, but I am roughly in a similar place. This team is very good but the defense is not Final Four caliber.
Yet. At least.
I hate the "they can turn it on when they need it argument." Two problems...
(1.) What if you run into a team with incredible offensive firepower (e.g., Auburn in Maui, Illinois in Boston last season, etc.) and you try to "turn it on" and find out all the sudden that you cannot?
(2.) It's playing with fire. Why not play better defense the whole game (we have at least eight viable guys to play, so plenty of fouls/stamina) so you're up say five at the under-four timeout and not tied? I feel better when teams are already close to put away at the end of games. Leave the door open, and eventually the other team is going to have some guy who performs some heroics to beat you and/or somebody like Gilbert or Jones will try to perform some heroics to win the game but... maybe Gilbert dribbles the ball off his foot or misses a shot at the rim with no whistle and we're furious but it ain't comin'... or Jones misses a big-time three.
And come late March... that's it. Your season is over. Second weekend again.
Great but not the transcendent ambitions we have of making it to San Antonio.
Yep at some point, probably the worst possible time, that waiting until the last 5 minutes to clamp down on D may not work along with hitting big shots.
I thought last night was better so hopefully the can balance it out to get better across the full 40 minutes.
Sometimes it looks like the communication isn't great and maybe the D gets better as that improves.
Also we're used to watching a hornets' nest the last three years so opponents actually getting to the lane is magnified.
Have you started studying Baylor yet to figure out ways we might get beat by them?
This argument was made during the Hoiberg years.
"Sure the offense is fun, but the defense isn't good. That problem will put a ceiling on their success."
"No no no! You don't get it! They can turn it on when they need to! And they have some absolute killers who know how to close out games at the end like Royce White and Georges Niang!"
Maybe that argument is true 95% of the time. But that 5% can ruin a season.
The defense has actually trended slightly down on Torvik so far...
It is roughly "steady" at 95 adjusted points given up per 100 possessions right now.
The good news? If they can hold at 95, then that would tie WVU for #19 defense in the country. That level of defense (a good one but not a great one) with the #6 offense is truly scary in March.
WIll always take improvement but last year we were 52nd in Off and 1st in Def, currently we are 3rd in offense and 18th in defense. I think the latter beats the former 2 out 3 times. I wouldn't want to risk where we are to rank higher in one or the other ratings if that means altering the lineup to be more defensive.
No, haven't seen them much. Hopefully ISU can defend better on their own end.
Weren't you someone who didn't even watch games because of how much anxiety they gave you? What were you so worried about?
