2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

Sigmapolis

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I think Green Bay was bottom 10 when we played them last year, and then rose 100 spots after that. After watching that game last night, I think IU Indy could do the same this year (assuming they stay healthy) - they have a lot of really good pieces that have not played D1 ball before, so the early season analytics don't have much to go on

Both UMKC and UI Indy looked better than your "normal" cupcakes in Hilton.

The announcers talked up their one guard, Zilinskas, and he lived up to the promotion. He looked like a nice player for the Horizon League. Looks like he came up from Division II this season.
 

bawbie

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Both UMKC and UI Indy looked better than your "normal" cupcakes in Hilton.

The announcers talked up their one guard, Zilinskas, and he lived up to the promotion. He looked like a nice player for the Horizon League. Looks like he came up from Division II this season.
Yeah he is. I was surprised to see he was only 1-4 from 3 last night, I thought he had made more than that. But he's averaging 19.3 on 40% 3pt shooting and 12-13 from the FT line in their 3 games against D1 competition. That'll play in the horizon.
 

trevn

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Yeah IU Indy doesn't look like a bottom 10-20 team in my opinion. They ran some decent stuff and had some shot makers. I watched their game against Xavier a couple weeks ago and they played well on the road. They even had Xavier down late in the first half before running out of steam. Losing at home to Eastern Michigan tells me they still have a few things to figure out though.
 

1UNI2ISU

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There's still some last year data in KenPom and others and they were horrific.

New coach has won a ton of games in his life so he'll make them better. I thought he did a nice job with what he had to work with.
 

Sigmapolis

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There's still some last year data in KenPom and others and they were horrific.

New coach has won a ton of games in his life so he'll make them better. I thought he did a nice job with what he had to work with.

It is hard to forecast those bottom-of-the-barrel teams.

So many of them have new coaches frequently and they have a ton of roster churn.

Most of their incoming guys are going to be coming from similar low-low-low-tier programs or up from Division II or freshmen without much data about them from recruiting services.

You're kind of guessing at that point.

Add in that if any coach shows success at MVSU or IUI then they're going to be snapped up by a mid-major fairly quickly, which means you're back to starting over on the program and the projection.
 

ClonesFTW

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I wasn't too impressed with Tech or Baylor in their games yesterday. I know it's early and with NIL some of these teams will play completely different by February, but I feel confident in a top 3 finish.
 

MJ271

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It's too early in the season for many takeaways on the stats yet. However, Iowa State's defensive free throw rate is interesting. Because of the aggressive defense of the last few years, that's the one of the "four factors" where the defense has ranked poorly, finishing at 242, 340, and 313 in defensive free throw rate in the past few seasons. Being at 12 with the other defensive categories not suffering is very impressive.

For some comparison by competition level, their game-by-game defensive free throw rates this season are 21.6, 24.1, and 17.3. Last season the games before the Thanksgiving tournament were 30.4, 43.5, 51.2, and 14.3. With the exception of Grambling State last year, it's a stark difference from last season to this season.
 

Cyclonepride

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Heise is showing me absolutely nothing so far. Hope that changes. Our guards were completely gassed at the end of that game. Need to find more minutes down the bench
He's defending, but very little aggression on offense. Hopefully he will settle in and find his role on that end. It's definitely an adjustment going from feature guy to role player but least he's not really forcing things as he's not going to be one of the top couple scoring options in most lineups. It's very early yet though, so hard to expect a lot more right now.
 

NoCreativity

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Heise is showing me absolutely nothing so far. Hope that changes. Our guards were completely gassed at the end of that game. Need to find more minutes down the bench
Is Watson in the doghouse? He showed last year he's fully capable of holding his own as a situational guy off the bench. Heise brings absolutely nothing to the table.
 
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