2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

NorthCyd

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Torvik has us finishing like this right now...

View attachment 139337

View attachment 139338

At a #2 seed and in a position to fight for a #1 seed. Finishing the non-con with one loss and that one loss coming on a tip-in last-second shot against the #1 team in the country in the polls and the computers...

Not bad. Would love another shot at Auburn in San Antonio.

Force nothing but wins through the end of the calendar year...

View attachment 139340

Marginal improvement fighting for that #1 seed. I imagine much about that seed line is going to come down to who (Houston, Kansas, ISU, etc.) ends up winning the Big 12 regular season. I know there's no "automatic" #1 for winning the conference, but it basically puts you in position for one.

By the way, Iowa is very much a bubble team right now...

View attachment 139341

They're a flawed team (obviously) but good enough to make the NCAA tournament if a few games go their way. The game on Thursday night is objectively a huge opportunity for them to notch a Q1 win that is going to age very well even outside of the usual this game being their Super Bowl.

Force a win for the Herkies and their position definitely improves...

View attachment 139342

Gotta play well for this one.
I see fans on this board that don't appreciate how tough the Iowa game is probably going to be. There will be an epic meltdown if we lose and there shouldn't be. I think ISU wins but it's not the layup some fans think it is.
 

Sigmapolis

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I see fans on this board that don't appreciate how tough the Iowa game is probably going to be. There will be an epic meltdown if we lose and there shouldn't be. I think ISU wins but it's not the layup some fans think it is.

83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.
 

NorthCyd

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83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.
I rewatched the Marquette game and was in attendance at yesterday's game, and I'm starting to think the concerns on Lipsey aren't all that warranted. Most of it seems to be centered around scoring and frankly we don't need him to score that much this year. He's still doing a good job on defense, running the point, and distributing the ball. We've got lots of other guys to score, so maybe that just isn't Lipsey’s role on this year's team.
 

Letterkenny

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83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.
This is good
 

Letterkenny

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I rewatched the Marquette game and was in attendance at yesterday's game, and I'm starting to think the concerns on Lipsey aren't all that warranted. Most of it seems to be centered around scoring and frankly we don't need him to score that much this year. He's still doing a good job on defense, running the point, and distributing the ball. We've got lots of other guys to score, so maybe that just isn't Lipsey’s roll on this year's team.
Just needs to be efficient, which he has been for the most part. We're scoring over 80pts/game. We clearly don't need him to score much.
 

Sigmapolis

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I rewatched the Marquette game and was in attendance at yesterday's game, and I'm starting to think the concerns on Lipsey aren't all that warranted. Most of it seems to be centered around scoring and frankly we don't need him to score that much this year. He's still doing a good job on defense, running the point, and distributing the ball. We've got lots of other guys to score, so maybe that just isn't Lipsey’s role on this year's team.

He's certainly been improving and doing "the little things" outside of scoring well.

Which is good and understandable. He doesn't need to be a primary scorer on a roster like this one where he did the past few years. He can be the Point God and an absolute pest on defense, and those roles are most definitely his "comparative advantage" compared to scorers like KG, CJ, MM, and the Presidents.

But I'd still like him to have a "I'm the captain now" game scoring 20+ on a P5 opponent. I'd also like him to firmly establish teams can't sag off him when he's lurking on the perimeter.

Embarrassing Iowa would fit the bill perfectly.
 

Gunnerclone

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I see fans on this board that don't appreciate how tough the Iowa game is probably going to be. There will be an epic meltdown if we lose and there shouldn't be. I think ISU wins but it's not the layup some fans think it is.

There’s usually one of two things that happen. Iowa comes out on fire and we never get back in to the game and lose by double digits. Iowa doesn’t come out on fire and we either blow them out or we get up by 12-15 and keep that until about 4 minutes left it goes to like a 4-7 point game after all the late game stuff that always happens in CBB.
 

cyatheart

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This is the biggest game of the year for Iowa. A win could be what puts them in the tourney. They don't have a ton of chances for great wins on the schedule. This will be by far the best chance they have for a resume win.

And...they have the shooters to give us problems if they can rotate the ball out of the trap to the weak side. They know how to beat this defense, will see if they can outscore us.
 

Cyclonepride

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Torvik has us finishing like this right now...

View attachment 139337

View attachment 139338

At a #2 seed and in a position to fight for a #1 seed. Finishing the non-con with one loss and that one loss coming on a tip-in last-second shot against the #1 team in the country in the polls and the computers...

Not bad. Would love another shot at Auburn in San Antonio.

Force nothing but wins through the end of the calendar year...

View attachment 139340

Marginal improvement fighting for that #1 seed. I imagine much about that seed line is going to come down to who (Houston, Kansas, ISU, etc.) ends up winning the Big 12 regular season. I know there's no "automatic" #1 for winning the conference, but it basically puts you in position for one.

By the way, Iowa is very much a bubble team right now...

View attachment 139341

They're a flawed team (obviously) but good enough to make the NCAA tournament if a few games go their way. The game on Thursday night is objectively a huge opportunity for them to notch a Q1 win that is going to age very well even outside of the usual this game being their Super Bowl.

Force a win for the Herkies and their position definitely improves...

View attachment 139342

Gotta play well for this one.
The Big 12 kinda screwed themselves with losses in the non-conference so far.
 

Sigmapolis

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The Big 12 kinda screwed themselves with losses in the non-conference so far.

The SEC is well...

1733779799329.png

The SEC of college basketball right now.

:puke:

Funny how their basketball takes off right as their football dominance starts to slip a little.

Not much we can do about it now, though. We blew our part in our loss to Auburn.

Good news -- even if the Big 12 isn't obviously the best conference this year it is still one of the best conferences. A clear Big 12 champion with our non-con CV is very much a #1 seed.

Just gotta go out there and put Houston, KU, Tech, Cinci, Baylor, etc. in their place now.
 

madguy30

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There’s usually one of two things that happen. Iowa comes out on fire and we never get back in to the game and lose by double digits. Iowa doesn’t come out on fire and we either blow them out or we get up by 12-15 and keep that until about 4 minutes left it goes to like a 4-7 point game after all the late game stuff that always happens in CBB.

I like this ISU team to be able to come back if they get jumped on but otherwise yeah this is what I think will go down.

Up by 15 just doesn't hold much water until there's like 5 minutes left if that and teams like Iowa will at least make it weird late if they're behind the whole game.
 
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bawbie

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83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.
Or all of the above - I could see Iowa making quite a few threes - but Gilbert is by far the best player on the floor, disrupts the Iowa guards and we pound the ball into the paint with success. KenPom has us ~13 points better on a neutral floor, so adjust for whatever you want to give Carver for homecourt. Haslemetrics has us by 7 (82-75).

Freeman has been pretty good about playing and not fouling - but only played 19 minutes against Michigan's double 7-footers- Vlad Goldin shot 11 FTs. Jackson especially has been very good at drawing fouls.

They just don't have anyone after Freeman. They have a bunch of 6'7" or 6'8" guards, and a couple of taller scrubs (Braun and Tadje). Unlike Hawk teams recently - this one does NOT go 10+ deep. They basically play 7 - with Sandfort the Younger and Thelwell, the PG transfer from Morehead St the bench. Koch and Traore were key bench players - but neither has played since before Thanksgiving.
 
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inCyteful

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83-79 for the good guys on Torvik right now
64% win expectation

...which gives the Herks a 36% win expectation. Roughly a 2:1 advantage.

Not terrible. But not overwhelming either.

Iowa should rightfully be fired up for this game. It is their last and best chance for a juicy Q1-A win OOC to buttress their CV come March. The rivalry stuff and Fran being Fran is just the frosting.

Maybe Iowa comes out and buries a bunch of threes and this game goes how it always goes.

Or maybe Gilbert comes out and shows the Herks he's the best college basketball player in the state by a mile. Abuses their guards on both offense and defense. Maybe Lipsey does the same thing in an in-state rivalry game and finally gets back some of that "mojo" he seems to have been missing.

Or maybe the Presidents just beat up their frontcourt. Easy shots inside, tons of offensive rebounds.

Easy to see it going either way.

Who knows what happens in this game any year but I don't know what Iowa is going to do to defend The Presidents. Iowa has never defended the interior well but we haven't had interior that could do the damage Joshua and Dishon and frankly Chatfield can do.

I am sure the 3's will fly from the Sandbox boys and Dix. Dix seems to have improved a lot since our game last year but we ran him out of that game in about 5 minutes.

I assume will score 85ish and the question is can Iowa keep up. I wouldn't want to be in a TJ practice after someone scores 80+ against us.
 

madguy30

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I see fans on this board that don't appreciate how tough the Iowa game is probably going to be. There will be an epic meltdown if we lose and there shouldn't be. I think ISU wins but it's not the layup some fans think it is.

'They're soft, they don't defend, ISU's inside game will eat them alive' have already been out there like people don't pay attention to how every game can be different, and this one especially is for Iowa.

They're a bubble team that needs a big win and the timing is perfect with ISU coming in with a bump in the ratings after essentially dominating a good Marquette team last week.
 

CascadeClone

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Anyone else curious in regards to the true frosh Indrusaitis getting minutes over Watson? I know Indrusaitis was a highly heralded recruit and has a ton of potential...but...the moment seemed really big for him in that Marquette game. I thought Watson was playing the best basketball of his career late in the year last season. Watson is an elite defender/rebounder. Knows his role on offense. Fully trust TJ. Im sure Indrusaitis will settle im as the year goes along.
It's probably been covered elsewhere, but on the radio last night Walters said Watson stepped on coral in Maui. That would be a pretty nasty cut and cuts to your foot bleed like crazy until they are 100% healed.

I'd imagine a sport with running and jumping would be detrimental to healing as well as being painful af.

But this was first I had heard anything about it.
 

stuclone

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I hope TJ is just showing them film of the last game in Iowa City when we were feeling good after a Sweet 16 appearance and got run out of the gym. Last 3 games have all been blowouts in favor of the home team. Will need to make sure the team is focused and dialed in looking to dominate in a big rivalry game
 

Cyclonepride

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Or all of the above - I could see Iowa making quite a few threes - but Gilbert is by far the best player on the floor, disrupts the Iowa guards and we pound the ball into the paint with success. KenPom has us ~13 points better on a neutral floor, so adjust for whatever you want to give Carver for homecourt. Haslemetrics has us by 7 (82-75).

Freeman has been pretty good about playing and not fouling - but only played 19 minutes against Michigan's double 7-footers- Vlad Goldin shot 11 FTs. Jackson especially has been very good at drawing fouls.

They just don't have anyone after Freeman. They have a bunch of 6'7" or 6'8" guards, and a couple of taller scrubs (Braun and Tadje). Unlike Hawk teams recently - this one does NOT go 10+ deep. They basically play 7 - with Sandfort the Younger and Thelwell, the PG transfer from Morehead St the bench. Koch and Traore were key bench players - but neither has played since before Thanksgiving.
I feel like Iowa’s main advantage is the fact that they will shoot just about the first open shot without hesitation, which can offset our defense a bit if they’re hot.

I do think we have a really big advantage in the guard court and our 8/9/10 guys are as good as anyone after their top three.
 

Letterkenny

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Or all of the above - I could see Iowa making quite a few threes - but Gilbert is by far the best player on the floor, disrupts the Iowa guards and we pound the ball into the paint with success. KenPom has us ~13 points better on a neutral floor, so adjust for whatever you want to give Carver for homecourt. Haslemetrics has us by 7 (82-75).

Freeman has been pretty good about playing and not fouling - but only played 19 minutes against Michigan's double 7-footers- Vlad Goldin shot 11 FTs. Jackson especially has been very good at drawing fouls.

They just don't have anyone after Freeman. They have a bunch of 6'7" or 6'8" guards, and a couple of taller scrubs (Braun and Tadje). Unlike Hawk teams recently - this one does NOT go 10+ deep. They basically play 7 - with Sandfort the Younger and Thelwell, the PG transfer from Morehead St the bench. Koch and Traore were key bench players - but neither has played since before Thanksgiving.
Jones and King destroyed Iowa inside last year. They had no answer. Hopefully we're able to do that again.
 
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