I think you have a point that holding serve probably gives you a #4.
The simulation above shows you right on the 3/4 line with one in KC, though.
That really could go either way depending on the human whims of the committee and maybe needing to move Iowa State somewhere to avoid a Big 12 #1 seed (e.g., Kansas) or #5 seed (e.g., TCU).
I find debating if we'll be a #3 or #4 kind of like debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin, though. Is there a substantial difference there? Isn't either an amazing outcome for this year?
Historically it's really ****ing good for ISU basketball.