I don't think that will happen and Lunardi is historically very bad at his job - but this is only based off of the #1 seed.
If Iowa is an 8/9 they wouldn't be in the same bracket as the #1 going to Des Moines- or at least you'd think.
2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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If Iowa is an 8/9 they wouldn't be in the same bracket as the #1 going to Des Moines- or at least you'd think.
Man I feel this and that was one of the all time "**** you's" from a committee... but that's also from a caveman era that is thankfully long, long dead.
Zero chance Iowa gets the 8 or 9 seed in DSM. They are not doing that to a 1 seed, which will also end up being KU.
And that was long before they used the metrics they currently use.
It's a whole new world now.
Important to note things don't happen in a vacuum either. Teams around us need to surpass us or we could of course play well and jump teams in front of us.
3 seeds
#9 - Tennessee (Lost to bubble team Kentucky, play @texas A&M tonight)
#10 - Virginia (Won over bad Notre Dame team at home)
#11 - Iowa State (Lost on the road to #12 KState)
#12 - KState (Won at home over #11 Iowa State)
4 seeds
#13 - Indiana (Won close at home over Illinois, play @Michigan State tonight)
#14 - Marquette (Won at home over Xavier, play @Creighton tonight)
#15 - Gonzaga (Won @Pepperdine)
#16 - Xavier (Lost on the road to #14 Marquette, play vs Villanova tonight)
Others on the fringe:
UCONN
Miami
St Mary's
Creighton
Analysis:
Tennessee is dropping quickly. They've lost 4 of 6 and none of those were to ranked/top teams.
Virginia has a big game @ North Carolina this weekend. Go Heels.
Indiana has two road games upcoming (@Michigan State, @Purdue) they will be underdogs in. They are an interesting team because they have dealt with some significant injuries. Would prefer to see them lose these next two before beating Iowa at home.
Marquette has a tough game tonight. I'd expect Creighton to beat them in Omaha.
Gonzaga can't do much to move up more beating up on bad competition. The analytics are always great but they only have 3 quad 1 wins. They could potentially play St Mary's two more times - this Saturday at home in a revenge spot and possibly in the WCC finals.
Xavier gets Villanova at home tonight before two road games against desperate Seton Hall and a good Providence team.
The performance of teams around us matters greatly. But control what we can control and finish out 2-2 winning our home games and we will have a chance in KC to hold that 3 seed. Des Moines tbd.
3 seeds
#9 - Tennessee (Lost to bubble team Kentucky, play @texas A&M tonight)
#10 - Virginia (Won over bad Notre Dame team at home)
#11 - Iowa State (Lost on the road to #12 KState)
#12 - KState (Won at home over #11 Iowa State)
4 seeds
#13 - Indiana (Won close at home over Illinois, play @Michigan State tonight)
#14 - Marquette (Won at home over Xavier, play @Creighton tonight)
#15 - Gonzaga (Won @Pepperdine)
#16 - Xavier (Lost on the road to #14 Marquette, play vs Villanova tonight)
Others on the fringe:
UCONN
Miami
St Mary's
Creighton
Analysis:
Tennessee is dropping quickly. They've lost 4 of 6 and none of those were to ranked/top teams.
Virginia has a big game @ North Carolina this weekend. Go Heels.
Indiana has two road games upcoming (@Michigan State, @Purdue) they will be underdogs in. They are an interesting team because they have dealt with some significant injuries. Would prefer to see them lose these next two before beating Iowa at home.
Marquette has a tough game tonight. I'd expect Creighton to beat them in Omaha.
Gonzaga can't do much to move up more beating up on bad competition. The analytics are always great but they only have 3 quad 1 wins. They could potentially play St Mary's two more times - this Saturday at home in a revenge spot and possibly in the WCC finals.
Xavier gets Villanova at home tonight before two road games against desperate Seton Hall and a good Providence team.
The performance of teams around us matters greatly. But control what we can control and finish out 2-2 winning our home games and we will have a chance in KC to hold that 3 seed. Des Moines tbd.
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Tech only play 12 quad 1 games, ISU is probably going to hit 20 or more.
they were 4-8 on Quad 1 wins, ISU will have at least 8.
Tech had a Quad 4 loss and a Quad 3 loss
The conference they played in ranked 5th in NET
Big 12 is a dominant #1 in NET, its not even close
ISU has no Quad 3 or 4 losses.
The resumes are very different
Ceiling is a 2 and floor is 6 in terms of seeding.
VT was 19-12 to end the regular season and did not have a very good resume. They only won two games against teams that went to the NCAA tournament, that is until VT went nuclear and won the ACC tournament while beating Clemson, Notre Dame, UNC, and Duke.
Those wins likely catapulted them in the computer rankings, but the committee obviously wasn't going to seed them based off of having one good week all season long.
We played like ass on the road in a rivalry matchup against the #12 team in the nation without our best shooter/3rd best scorer and lost by 6. We had legitimate shots to win the game too.
Not only is our strength of schedule ridiculous, every conference loss has been very close where a couple plays here or there could have turned them into a win. Most Big 12 teams can't say that.
Kansas is coming to Des Moines for sure.
Who is the quad 2 loss? Tech on the road? which the way they are going might be a quad 1 loss. Or OSU at home which is probably not going to correct itself
We'll just disagree then, I think we have to do a little more to hold the 3 seed than you think. I think we basically need 4 more wins to hold it, whatever combination that comes in from the regular season and Big 12 tourney.
They definitely do matter and I'm not saying we shouldn't drop, but we don't get the luxury of playing in a conference where we get to go play a Minnesota or a Louisville where you have to play horrific to lose.
Since December 31, we've played 15 games. 8 of those have been against ranked opponents, 4 being in the top 10. 14 of the 15 have been against teams that will likely be in the tournament, the outlier being OU who is not a bad team whatsoever.
I've been telling myself it's going to get somewhat easier- I hope.
I think Houston will take a step back playing up a level in competition.
The other 3 don't really bring much.
It will be nice to get a break every so often during the grind.
1-4 you go to a 6th
2-3 5th
3-3 (assuming 1 win in Tourney) 4th
anything better its probably a 3.
Thing is there are not very many good teams. Will see what happens with Bama now that their star is getting drug into the murder thing.
If you avoid the 8/9 or 7/10 ISU has as good a shot as anyone to win a couple of games that first weekend.
Somewhat agree but with this change: UVA, Kstate ISU, Tenn (lost by 15 to a bubble team)
