2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[Statefan10]

Yeah, I don't begrudge AJG whatsoever for fulfilling his lifelong dream and getting $$$ in the NBA. I am always going to wonder, though, even if this is turning into a very good season anyways, how good this team would have been with Green, a healthy Williams, and no hand injury to Jaz Kunc.

CW said several times, "The refs gave Iowa State a chance to crawl back into the UConn game in the second half. They just couldn't hit a shot." Maybe if AJ was around and got hot against the Huskies? As the best scorer on the team and an Iowan who would be "up" for the Iowa game, maybe AJ manufactures a few shots early against the Hawkeyes to keep it close and then it is an actual game and not a rout? What if a lot of Kalscheur and Grill clanks from distance were AJG shooting 42% from three and tearing up the Big 12?

We'll never know, but it is fun to think about it. Even that TJ had the vision and almost had the reality of something like that fills me with confidence he'll be able to rebuild the roster again.



I would say more-or-less yes.

Green is to TJ what Heacock is to Campbell.

That is, they're about 90% of the reason for their boss' success.

KG is no doubt a terrific defensive coach but I've heard JR Blount has been monumental in helping with the defense as well.

 

[madguy30]

I'm attributing a good deal of it to Coach Green

And we attribute him being at ISU to TJ.

Otz knew to compete he'd have to lean on that end and decided to crazy with it.

 

[bawbie]

. Even that TJ had the vision and almost had the reality of something like that fills me with confidence he'll be able to rebuild the roster again.

I’m very excited about next year and the combination of Milan and Omaha. I think it’s really taking the top off the box that these first two team are in. He clearly has a vision for that team too - and it’s at another talent/athleticism level.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I’m very excited about next year and the combination of Milan and Omaha. I think it’s really taking the top off the box that these first two team are in. He clearly has a vision for that team too - and it’s at another talent/athleticism level.

I’m just going to get out in front of CF and say it right now for the record; nobody should be surprised if Milan gets Watson level minutes next year.

Omaha is going to be a starter possibly right away.

 

[8bitnes]

I’m just going to get out in front of CF and say it right now for the record; nobody should be surprised if Milan gets Watson level minutes next year.

Omaha is going to be a starter possibly right away.

Omaha will likely be here one year

 

[CloniesForLife]

I’m just going to get out in front of CF and say it right now for the record; nobody should be surprised if Milan gets Watson level minutes next year.

Omaha is going to be a starter possibly right away.

If Milan is a knockdown shooter right away I could see him getting some more minutes than Watson. Curious what his defense is like though

 

[cyinne]

Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

Winner, winner! This is exactly what I was looking for!! Thanks a lot!!

 

[Statefan10]

I’m just going to get out in front of CF and say it right now for the record; nobody should be surprised if Milan gets Watson level minutes next year.

Omaha is going to be a starter possibly right away.

I think Watson having to play this much due to King‘a eligibility and Jaz’s finger will speed up his development.

I also think if Milan can fill it up as a freshman he could play decent minutes

 

[CyLyte2]

I’m very excited about next year and the combination of Milan and Omaha. I think it’s really taking the top off the box that these first two team are in. He clearly has a vision for that team too - and it’s at another talent/athleticism level.

I don’t know what kind of box you’re talking about.

 

[interrobang]

Up to #17 on Kenpom!! #6 on defense and #78 on offense now! Predicting 11-7 in conference now.

 

[Sigmapolis]

**** me! Up from #24 to #11 on Torvik --



What a beating. The adjusted offense and defense of that game is cartoony --



130.3 ORTG and 74.3 DRTG basically break the scale.

Up to a #3 seed now --

 

[Cyientist]

Up to #17 on Kenpom!! #6 on defense and #78 on offense now! Predicting 11-7 in conference now.

I think Kenpom loved that game more than I did!

 

[NoCreativity]

**** me! Up from #25 to #11 on Torvik --

View attachment 108063

What a beating. The adjusted offense and defense of that game is cartoony --

View attachment 108065

130.3 ORTG and 74.3 DRTG basically break the scale.

Up to a #3 seed now --

View attachment 108066

Somebody needs to explain to me how St. Mary's is ranked 6th on there.

 

[tim_redd]

Agree, every single game left is going to be a battle.

I guess I was wrong.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Somebody needs to explain to me how St. Mary's is ranked 6th on there.

Weak schedule but huge margins of victory against inferior teams.

If it makes you feel better, they're projected as a #5 seed right now, not like a #2-3 range.

 

[Sigmapolis]

We made it happen!



To be more specific --



The modal outcome is now a #2 seed! Wow!

Kansas in Lawrence is going to be tough, though. I don't expect to win that game. The way they coolly handled Oklahoma after being down late without any officiating shenanigans was impressive --



Just keep it within a possession or two and anything can happen. Kansas has an excellent starting five but a weak bench, so maybe TJ and the staff can figure out some strategy to try to exploit that.

 

[interrobang]

Moved us up to the 2nd spot now. Sure that will change depending on Texas/TCU tonight.

 

[interrobang]

We made it happen!

View attachment 108072

To be more specific --

View attachment 108073

The modal outcome is now a #2 seed! Wow!

Kansas in Lawrence is going to be tough, though. I don't expect to win that game. The way they coolly handled Oklahoma after being down late without any officiating shenanigans was impressive --

View attachment 108075

Just keep it within a possession or two and anything can happen. Kansas has an excellent starting five but a weak bench, so maybe TJ and the staff can figure out some strategy to try to exploit that.

The F4 and championship percentages still don't seem real to me. Just crazy to think of that at the moment.

 

[cyfan92]

Since 12/9/2022. YOUR Iowa State Cyclones are #4 in the country!!!! Check out the 3% ranking

 

[Sigmapolis]

The F4 and championship percentages still don't seem real to me. Just crazy to think of that at the moment.

Compare the automatic bid percent (13.1%) to the Final Four percent (9.4%).

Automatic bid requires winning the Big 12 tournament, so needing to go 3-0 against three Big 12 teams. How about we say the chance of winning each of those games is 50-50, so...

50% ^ 3 = 12.5%

Pretty close to the percent calculated by their model, eh?

Making the Final Four requires winning four games in the NCAA tournament. The first round or two of those are going to be comparatively easy games compared to Big 12-level opponents, though.

So how about this --

90% First Round (at a #2 or #3 seed, this is going to be an AQ from a bad conference)
70% Round of 32 (this would likely be a bubble team or a stronger AQ team in case of an upset)
50% Sweet Sixteen game (this is likely to be a peer from another high-major conference)
30% Elite Eight game (this is likely to be the #1 or #2 seed who is one tier above Iowa State)

= 90% * 70% * 50% * 30% = 9.45%

That's almost exactly on par with the model estimates.

So yeah, I think that's reasonable. It's not likely and would require taking care of inferior teams in the first two rounds, beating an equal in the Sweet Sixteen, and then pulling an upset in the regional final.