2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[cyclones500]

Hopefully Nova can get to a Q1 by the end of the year too

Currently, Nova is closer to slipping to Q3 than climbing to Q1 (currently 91st). Not saying it can't get to a Q1 eventually, but I'm not counting on it. Probably have to "live with" a Q2 and call it good.

I'm not too concerned with it in big picture since we have so many Q1/Q2 opportunities in-conference.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It’s not downstream it’s also upstream because I almost guarantee in the next 10 years we will be making a coaching hire in FB or BB and I want people to recognize game.

I know there is a significant chance this doesn't happen, but TJ is 45. I'd love for him to coach in Ames for another 20 years and rack up something like 500 wins along the way before retiring a legend.

That would shatter Johnny's Iowa State record of 218 wins as head coach.

 

[cyfan92]

Currently, Nova is closer to slipping to Q3 than climbing to Q1 (currently 91st). Not saying it can't get to a Q1 eventually, but I'm not counting on it. Probably have to "live with" a Q2 and call it good.

I'm not too concerned with it in big picture since we have so many Q1/Q2 opportunities in-conference.

Nova is 45th in Torvik since 12/1/2022. Have to give them some time.

 

[helechopper]

We'll never know how TJ would have done then as a rookie head coach even if handed a powerful roster like that.

I know.

TJ would have gotten the absolute best out of that squad, gone further in the tourney and then parlayed that into a top 5 recruiting class.

At least that's what I play out in my Kool-aid drinking mind.

 

[isutrevman]

I still have my expectations at just making the tournament. Anything above that is a bonus.

 

[tim_redd]

I still have my expectations at just making the tournament. Anything above that is a bonus.

Agree, every single game left is going to be a battle.

 

[cyinne]

Not computer raining related but isn’t there a website that shows teams wins and losses with scores separated by quadrants also shows their upcoming games and what quad their upcoming opponents are currently in?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Not computer raining related but isn’t there a website that shows teams wins and losses with scores separated by quadrants also shows their upcoming games and what quad their upcoming opponents are currently in?

This has part of what you want

DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.

www.ncaa.com

 

[Sigmapolis]

Not computer raining related but isn’t there a website that shows teams wins and losses with scores separated by quadrants also shows their upcoming games and what quad their upcoming opponents are currently in?

Torvik gives you actual and projected for these --

 

[cyinne]

This has part of what you want

DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

Get NCAA college basketball rankings from the Associated Press, USA Today Coaches poll and the NCAA NET Rankings.

www.ncaa.com

Yes- but not the site I’m looking for. The one I’m looking for I had on phone last year but cannot for the life of me remember what it was.

 

[isufbcurt]

I know.

TJ would have gotten the absolute best out of that squad, gone further in the tourney and then parlayed that into a top 5 recruiting class.

At least that's what I play out in my Kool-aid drinking mind.

I have a hard time seeing those guys play defense like TJ demands

 

[alarson]

I have a hard time seeing those guys play defense like TJ demands

If that would have even been the strategy.

We've gone to a heavy focus on defense because we were always going to be limited offensively these first two years. TJ was also here when we were a high powered offense with very little defense. It wasn't his show back then of course, but he seems to be pretty adaptable to the talent he has.

 

[cyclones500]

Yes- but not the site I’m looking for. The one I’m looking for I had on phone last year but cannot for the life of me remember what it was.

(edited to make it the 2022-23 direct link)

Possibly this is what you're thinking (it includes upcoming schedules, in addition to the updated NET details).

NET Ranking - Men's College Basketball | WarrenNolan.com

2023 Men's College Basketball NET Ranking: NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) a ranking of teams based on five factors, team value index, net efficiency, winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage, and scoring margin.

www.warrennolan.com

 

[Sigmapolis]

If that would have even been the strategy.

We've gone to a heavy focus on defense because we were always going to be limited offensively these first two years. TJ was also here when we were a high powered offense with very little defense. It wasn't his show back then of course, but he seems to be pretty adaptable to the talent he has.

I interpret the present focus on defense as the following --

(1.) The transfer and NIL market value (or overvalue) offensive production. Offense is "sexier" and easer to quantify than defensive ability with hard numbers. TJ is able to land undervalued defensive assets like Gabe Kalscheur because his offensive metrics look so bad... but he plays good defense.

You are probably picking up on the Moneyball theme here. Frankly, we can't afford the guys who can score (e.g., Nijel Pack, Tyrese Hunter, etc.), so TJ is bringing in what he can afford on an ISU budget.

(2.) Analytical models do a good job describing a team's offense as the net sum of its parts, but a team's defense is usually measured in aggregate, not on an individual level. This implies defense is more of a team effort in terms of playing together with a strong element of coaching. TJ happens to have the best defensive coordinator in college basketball, so he's hoping bringing in good defenders and letting Kyle Green mix them together is giving you enough of a salty defense to be competitive in every game you play.

And so far... this is working out splendidly, though I wonder what ceiling it is going to have.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I interpret the present focus on defense as the following --

(1.) The transfer and NIL market value (or overvalue) offensive production. Offense is "sexier" and easer to quantify than defensive ability with hard numbers. TJ is able to land undervalued defensive assets like Gabe Kalscheur because his offensive metrics look so bad... but he plays good defense.

You are probably picking up on the Moneyball theme here. Frankly, we can't afford the guys who can score (e.g., Nijel Pack, Tyrese Hunter, etc.), so TJ is bringing in what he can afford on an ISU budget.

(2.) Analytical models do a good job describing a team's offense as the net sum of its parts, but a team's defense is usually measured in aggregate, not on an individual level. This implies defense is more of a team effort in terms of playing together with a strong element of coaching. TJ happens to have the best defensive coordinator in college basketball, so he's hoping bringing in good defenders and letting Kyle Green mix them together is giving you enough of a salty defense to be competitive in every game you play.

And so far... this is working out splendidly, though I wonder what ceiling it is going to have.

I'm attributing a good deal of it to Coach Green

 

[McKinney]

Yes- but not the site I’m looking for. The one I’m looking for I had on phone last year but cannot for the life of me remember what it was.

Iowa State Cyclones Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists

bracketologists.com

 

[bawbie]

missing on AJ Green after having a 99.9% expectation that they would land him and he'd be the lead guard and the centerpiece of the offense.

This team would be really REALLY good with Green. He made the right decision for him, clearly, but you can totally see the vision the coaching staff had.

TJ is a magician.

And very very good at adapting to the team he has

The vast improvement of defensive coaching between his SDSU and UNLV stints (and ISU assistant years) and what they've done the last two years is amazing. Is that all on Green?

 

[CascadeClone]

If that would have even been the strategy.

We've gone to a heavy focus on defense because we were always going to be limited offensively these first two years. TJ was also here when we were a high powered offense with very little defense. It wasn't his show back then of course, but he seems to be pretty adaptable to the talent he has.

Most impressive thing to me about TJ so far, he has assembled two really good teams basically on the fly.

Last year was nearly 100% from scratch (talk about a bare cupboard!) and was respectable in a great conference and won a couple tourney games. This year maybe 50% from scratch, given he needed the 2 Bonnies and Williams, and then Tamin once Williams got hurt. This year of course, the culture was established, so that part was easier, and he had Gabe, Grill, Jaz, and Bobby Jones as returning pieces anyway. But the chemistry has been pretty good on the floor, and all 4 of those guys have improved too.

It's just real good coaching, and such breath of fresh air to see.

 

[Sigmapolis]

This team would be really REALLY good with Green. He made the right decision for him, clearly, but you can totally see the vision the coaching staff had.

Yeah, I don't begrudge AJG whatsoever for fulfilling his lifelong dream and getting $$$ in the NBA. I am always going to wonder, though, even if this is turning into a very good season anyways, how good this team would have been with Green, a healthy Williams, and no hand injury to Jaz Kunc.

CW said several times, "The refs gave Iowa State a chance to crawl back into the UConn game in the second half. They just couldn't hit a shot." Maybe if AJ was around and got hot against the Huskies? As the best scorer on the team and an Iowan who would be "up" for the Iowa game, maybe AJ manufactures a few shots early against the Hawkeyes to keep it close and then it is an actual game and not a rout? What if a lot of Kalscheur and Grill clanks from distance were AJG shooting 42% from three and tearing up the Big 12?

We'll never know, but it is fun to think about it. Even that TJ had the vision and almost had the reality of something like that fills me with confidence he'll be able to rebuild the roster again.

The vast improvement of defensive coaching between his SDSU and UNLV stints (and ISU assistant years) and what they've done the last two years is amazing. Is that all on Green?

I would say more-or-less yes.

Green is to TJ what Heacock is to Campbell.

That is, they're about 90% of the reason for their boss' success.

 

[madguy30]

2-4 seed being double digits is hilarious given where my expectations were after the Iowa game.

I'm REALLY trying to enjoy this and not project too far ahead... I remember the feeling being 2-5 last year before the OT win at OSU. I also remember losing 4 straight in to start February 2022

If the Iowa game followed like 0-3 in Portland I can see some gloom but that was a total outlier. The tourney was still very much at play with a normal effort outside of that game, but a highish seed would be wild.