2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

CloniesForLife

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We also basically don't even try to block shots, which I'm kind of a fan of as it leads to fouling more, giving up more offensive rebounds if you don't get the block and many blocks don't lead to a change of possession since they're often blocked out of bounds or go back to an offensive player.
Yeah hunting blocks isn't good defense. Blocks in the flow of the defense are good. But hunting them gets you out of position
 

ClonesFTW

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We're going to be around a 5 point dog on Saturday - feels like it's going to be a track meet based on how TCU likes to push the ball.
 

madguy30

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We also basically don't even try to block shots, which I'm kind of a fan of as it leads to fouling more, giving up more offensive rebounds if you don't get the block and many blocks don't lead to a change of possession since they're often blocked out of bounds or go back to an offensive player.

It looks like more of the Bill Russell shot block that can help retain possession.

Swatting into the 3rd row is cool but still just gives the ball back.
 

Sigmapolis

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Oklahoma is the worst ranked Big 12 team on Kenpom at 37. We are second worst at 34. This is crazy.

All 10 teams are in NCAA tournament range.


Over half the Big Ten is rankings lower than Oklahoma (9) teams)
6 ACC teams are ranked lower that OU
6 SEC teams are ranked lower than OU
8 Pac 12 teams are ranked lower than OU
6 Big East teams are ranked lower than OU

I don't know if a conference has ever had this high of a floor. The worst Big 12 team would be near the middle or in the top half of all other P6 conferences.

What is it that's made the Big 12 so dominate the past 6-8 years? Outside of Texas, the states aren't exactly recruiting hotbeds.

The impressive thing is those numbers aren't going to change much.

Roughly 90% of the Big 12's resume relative to other conferences (not relative to other teams within the conference) is already set in stone from the 2022 out-of-conference schedule. Big 12 teams can steal "goodness" from each other on KenPom and Torvik during the conference season, but conferences can no longer steal from each other. It is a zero-sum game where a team like Iowa State winning takes from a team like Oklahoma losing, but that outcome is a net zero for the Big 12 versus other conferences in the rankings.

There might be a slight shift depending on how the Big 12/SEC challenge goes and then of course with the NCAA tournament, but I imagine the Big 12 being miles ahead is not going to change.

As to your last question, I think it is a combination of factors --

(1.) shrewd hiring and retention of some quality coaches
(2.) having some high-quality coaches who would never look to leave their current school, like Huggins
(3.) ADs that, while smaller in budget compared to Big Ten and SEC schools, have made a commitment to winning in football and men's basketball over everything else
(4.) lots of programs with hoary traditions and intimidating home courts
(5.) Kansas -- much as we hate them -- being the conference's lodestar and champion... Kansas has had a strong decade... if Kansas were down, the whole conference would be
(6.) Scott Drew taking a sleepy Baylor program and making them the power in Texas
(7.) something of a feedback loop, too, I think... conference is good, good players want to play in it, makes the conference even better, TJ and the like can sell "come play in the best conference in the country," and then the feedback loop continues this virtuous reinforcement
 

CyPunch

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We're going to be around a 5 point dog on Saturday - feels like it's going to be a track meet based on how TCU likes to push the ball.

Going to be a really tough game.

TCU has one of the best guards in all of college basketball and he is surrounded by elite athletes. Eddie Lampkin is a nice player inside as well. They just have a really complete, experienced group. Trending toward a top 10 team.
 
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bawbie

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The impressive thing is those numbers aren't going to change much.

Roughly 90% of the Big 12's resume relative to other conferences (not relative to other teams within the conference) is already set in stone from the 2022 out-of-conference schedule. Big 12 teams can steal "goodness" from each other on KenPom and Torvik during the conference season, but conferences can no longer steal from each other. It is a zero-sum game where a team like Iowa State winning takes from a team like Oklahoma losing, but that outcome is a net zero for the Big 12 versus other conferences in the rankings.

There might be a slight shift depending on how the Big 12/SEC challenge goes and then of course with the NCAA tournament, but I imagine the Big 12 being miles ahead is not going to change.

As to your last question, I think it is a combination of factors --

(1.) shrewd hiring and retention of some quality coaches
(2.) having some high-quality coaches who would never look to leave their current school, like Huggins
(3.) ADs that, while smaller in budget compared to Big Ten and SEC schools, have made a commitment to winning in football and men's basketball over everything else
(4.) lots of programs with hoary traditions and intimidating home courts
(5.) Kansas -- much as we hate them -- being the conference's lodestar and champion... Kansas has had a strong decade... if Kansas were down, the whole conference would be
(6.) Scott Drew taking a sleepy Baylor program and making them the power in Texas
(7.) something of a feedback loop, too, I think... conference is good, good players want to play in it, makes the conference even better, TJ and the like can sell "come play in the best conference in the country," and then the feedback loop continues this virtuous reinforcement
All good points - but its still amazing to have multiple seasons with no "doormats" (like we were 2 years ago). There's some cyclical nature expected and this is two years in a row with basically no down teams

so I think I'd add a one more :
8) COVID and Transfer rules - reloading is much much easier these days - and like you said in #7, players want to come to the conference. There are a TON of 5th year seniors in the conf right now
 

Sigmapolis

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All good points - but its still amazing to have multiple seasons with no "doormats" (like we were 2 years ago). There's some cyclical nature expected and this is two years in a row with basically no down teams

so I think I'd add a one more :
8) COVID and Transfer rules - reloading is much much easier these days - and like you said in #7, players want to come to the conference. There are a TON of 5th year seniors in the conf right now

I agree with your first point -- it isn't all about having a few national-championship caliber teams every year and then having everybody else be good (e.g., everybody in the conference now is at least a bubble team, though somebody like Oklahoma is falling off it with the 0-2 start to the B12 slate).

A lot of it is avoiding having dumpster fire charity cases or, if they do, not having them for long. Yeah, Iowa State had a bad year and a terrible year, but we're back now. There's nobody in the conference like, say, Nebraska who just always seems to be bad no matter what they are trying to do.
 
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NWICY

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Even after last night? No way in hell Iowa is making the tourney this year. The Big 10 sucks this year besides Purdue, no way they deserve 9.

I agree with you but you have to feed the beast everyone wants the name conferences in. Hopefully the selection committee does their job and puts in deserving teams not conference affiliated teams. Long ways to go before those decisions are reached though.
 

qwerty

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CoachHines3

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1673015520532.png

we will have to keep them off the offensive boards.