Teams get upset in the tournament. I don't see why that means they are smoke and mirrors? Lots of teams have different strengths and weaknesses and if you shut down their strengths or neutralize them, they will lose.
They are smoke and mirrors, because I can predict most outcomes for them. I make a ton of money betting on or against Iowa men's basketball.
The script:
Schedule a bunch of cupcakes in the non con, score 100+ points and win by 30+. Happens almost every time, without fail, for the last 4-5 years of Fran's tenure. Gives the impression of a fast, exciting and explosive team to watch.
Run into a team or two in the non con that might not be as 'basketball skilled' as Iowa's always-veteran team, but they out-athlete and out hustle them. See Iowa State last year, TCU this year, and almost lost to a meh-looking Clemson too.
Do decent to good in the conference season. These games are harder to predict, because they actually do match up well with a lot of Big 10 opponents. The conference has been poverty as of recent years when it comes to doing well in the tournament.
March - flame out before or during the first weekend.
It has become the norm for Fran. It is predictable. It looks good on paper, but it is smoke and mirrors.