I wanted to see how often Iowa State has actually “underachieved” under Bill Fennelly.
They’ve been ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 12 times during his tenure. In 8 of those 12 seasons, they finished lower than where they started, including 4 of the last 6 years. More concerning, those four times they fell completely out of the rankings, they opened in the top 15 twice and as high as No. 8 twice.
3 times in the last four years we have started off ranked top 14 and lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
To be fair, the program hasn’t just underachieved. Since 1995–96, they’ve outperformed expectations or jumped into the rankings 8 times, especially during that early-to-mid 2000s run when they consistently beat their projection. That version of Iowa State felt like it squeezed everything out of its roster. You just don’t see that as often anymore.
That’s the issue. The overall body of work is clearly strong, but since around 2021–22, the trend has slipped. And at a place like Iowa State, roster hits matter more than they do elsewhere especially now with our NIL situation. Losing impact players like Addy Brown, Donarski, Fritz, Bristow, and Feuerbach chips away at your margin for error. Add in the yearly injury issues, and depth becomes a real problem fast.
In almost every other situation all of these trends would point to major changes needing to take place urgently but I don't have much faith in Pollard to make any changes now.
Maybe if Audi stays we can manufacture 17-20 wins and have a fun last season for Bill but I don't see how that is going to happen with everyone leaving.