I mean that’s the logical conclusion right? Instead of pooling the P4 just pool the P2. This is an awful idea and one that I hope doesn’t happen but again if this seismic move happened this would be the logical step
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Off topic, but I wonder if the pop movement trends continue if it gets hotter, drier, more fire prone, et al...
Not going to cave this but I doubt it. The 5 fastest growing metros are all in that region with no end in sight to the growth. People would rather be too hot than too cold, by and large.
Unfortunately yes. But they want to get ND, FSU, Clemson, maybe a few others first. Get both P2 to 20 teams, you got 40. The leftovers become AAA with 25% the revenue, basically G5 status for everyone else.
In my mind the only question is if it is the whole P2, or if there is a rapture of the Top ~24 brands who start playing CFB outside the conferences, like licensing the rights to a separate LLC or similar. I don't think they need 40 teams to max out their inventory slots, but its probably easier to do it that way than a rapture.
Nah it’s not gonna be top 24, that’s just putting too many traditional powers at the bottom. Need the other teams to prob up the blue bloods.
Which is why 40 is the perfect number and why Vandy, NW, Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland and Kentucky are going to be invited to the party.
40 is still leaving a lot of teams out. This would reduce the number of fans watching CFB. How do you increase your revenue by reducing the population of fans?
This isn’t like pro sports where you just go find a new team. If your school gets relegated, then you’re not going to jump on another team. It’ll be over for many current fans. That’s what the national talking heads seem to not understand. Oregon State fans aren’t suddenly jumping on the Oregon bandwagon when they dropped out of the power conferences.
I tend to agree Big12 teams won't be in play for 2030 realignment. That's probably limited to ACC poaching. And possible Notre Dame joining a conference after their NBC deal ends in 2029.
The other big variable is TV money. Who knows, maybe in 2030 there is some clarity and demand by Apple, Netflix, etc and the conferences might get accretive $ for more inventory.
But realistically the value of DTC, subscription, devalue of OTA is probably 2036.
OK we agree the use of doubling is over time.
So for the Big 10 or SEC to double it's TV money over a new 6 year deal is 13% YOY. Not some crazy number. Both the SEC and Big10 achieved doubling in their new TV deals a couple years ago.
How did they double revenue? Pooling- NO.
Poaching- Yes!
As long as there are TV media valuations like: ND, FSU, UNC, Clemson, Miami, etc. to poach- no need to pool.
Could pooling happen? Sure but that's 10+ years away and we're talking about a P2 with 40-48 teams.
Additional brand consolidation into the SEC and B10 by ESPN and Fox is not going to permit the likes of Apple, Amazon and CBS (with their new ownership) to legitimately bid on SEC/B10 rights into the 2030s. That's the whole point of consolidation, to prevent new entrants from making a significant impact in the CFP space especially if ESPN continues their absurd control of CFP rights.
And you missed the memo on the recent new NBA deal that includes the value of the DTC, OTA and subscription variables. The value of those variables were included in the massive increase of the new NBA deal with ESPN, Amazon and NBC/Peacock. It sure as hell won't take until 2036 for CFB to monetize those variables if they act rationally and pool media rights amongst the existing P4/P7 and bid them out NFL style.
Why wouldn't you look for a Big 10 or SEC source? They are the ones holding the Royal Flush while the Big12 & ACC are holding a couple aces.
Pooling only works if the Big 10 & SEC are sitting at the table. And they are only at the table if their media consultants say it's significantly more money for Big 10/SEC to pool vs. poach.
So I don’t think such a league is happening for a variety of reasons but there are plenty of ways around that.
First would be cutting out the 2/3 non P4 type matchups of the season. Just doing so would provide more games that would draw much better ratings and thus more money. The other thing would be that while an Oregon state fan would most likely not jump to Oregon, someone who is a college football fan wouldn’t have that problem. Many people that go to a G5 school already have a P4 team they cheer for, the question would be how much of a temporary dip would you see from forming such a league.
Again I don’t see it happening but there are plenty of ways around that potential drop.
If poaching takes place that financially relegates 20-25 existing B12/ACC schools with massive cuts and loss of scholarship opportunities to non-rev & Olympic sports, the Feds won't permit it.
And in order to pool rights and fully monetize those rights, the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 has to be amended to enable pooling. And it won't be amended to facilitate a consolidated 40 or 48 team SEC/B10. It will be amended for 70-72 schools that are rationally realigned.
The fed is actively tearing apart schools to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars but this will get positive intervention? What world are you living in.
I always love you passion but you ending every argument with the fed getting involved is legit insane, what world are you living in where you think this has a real possibility?
LOL, the Feds are actively involved now in college sports reform and one of primary points of focus is maintaining scholarship opportunities for Olympic and non-rev sports.
And your boy Pettiti has been active in lobbying for an Anti-Trust Exemption and codifying House and niether are happening if ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10 are going down a path of financially destroying the ACC and B12.
The conferences themselves, Conference HQ, have little power. It’s the P2 schools. Really just 10-20 of the schools. The P2 conferences only have whatever power granted to them from the biggest brands
If OSU left for a PE backed conference, the BIG is done, for example
Why would the biggest brands leave the P2? Because of money. If an entity is offering twice the P2 rate, changes can occur
Of course the P2 HQ and commissioners are against Superleagues, that’s an existential threat to at least one of them
- You missed the memo. CBS & NBC are paying two-thirds of the Big10's media rights. So FOX isn't excluding Apple, Amazon, etc if it makes their investment in the Big 10 more valuable.
FOX understands it's equity position in Big10 is more valuable by using other media companies money.
You don't see it, but the Big10 is following the NFL's playbook:
- Build a league with schools in major TV markets.
- Encourage bidding by maximizing TV partners. The Big 10 has FOX, NBC and CBS as OTA carriers. And FS1, FS2 and BTN as linear distribution.
ESPN might want to monopolize the SEC, but that's not the case with FOX and Big10.
I just don’t think there are that many “college football fans”. Most are fans of a team that’ll also support their conference. You take that team out of contention, you’re probably not going to drop $50-$100 / month to subscribe to the networks that made that happen.
Fox controls B10 rights for the foreseeable future and they can partner with others as they see fit for their benefit. That sure as hell isn't an NFL-like playbook especially when Fox's actions destroyed the PAC, Oregon St and Washington St and they seemingly have more on their radar.
