NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Preview

[HFCS]

No, Drake can't, because they're not Gonzaga. Gonzaga has the pedigree to schedule very good OOC games on a consistent basis because they've established themselves as a good team for the last 20 years. Also, Gonzaga doesn't always get a good seed. In the early 2000s they went to the tournament three straight years as 10 or above seeds and made the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 twice.. They also won their conference tournament those years. That's when they started to garner respect. But even since then they've had some years that they've been double digit seeds.

I was just looking through seedings of blue bloods and it's really only Kansas and Duke that get a high seed and make it almost every year. Kentucky has missed a few but when they get in, they get a high seed.

prior to #1 seed last year UNC had a missed tournament and two 8 seeds
from 2012 to 2019 UConn had mostly missed tournaments and low seeds
MSU's 4 most recent tournaments are 11, 7, 7, 9

Not many teams make it every year with a high seed, I think in our heads it seems that way because of the brands though.

 

[ClonesFTW]

K-State is probably the weirdest team in the country. Were playing like one of the worst P5's to now playing like one of the best. Problem with them is their resume is lopsided with good wins and bad losses. They're going to have to get to at least 19 wins to get into the tournament, which means they have to win at least 5/7 to end the year and then pick up one in the conference tournament.

They went from 98th on Kenpom to 57th in 3 weeks, that's an incredible jump considering there was already 2 months of data built into that.

 

[NENick]

Is there no way they can get an at large in your opinion?

I think the one way is if they win out up to the conference tournament championship and UNI does the same, with the exception of losing to Drake. Then UNI wins that championship game by a very narrow margin (1 or 2 points or OT).

 

[GoHawks]

No, Drake can't, because they're not Gonzaga. Gonzaga has the pedigree to schedule very good OOC games on a consistent basis because they've established themselves as a good team for the last 20 years. Also, Gonzaga doesn't always get a good seed. In the early 2000s they went to the tournament three straight years as 10 or above seeds and made the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 twice.. They also won their conference tournament those years. That's when they started to garner respect. But even since then they've had some years that they've been double digit seeds.

I'm not saying Gonzaga always gets overseeded or any preferential treatment that's above others but I do think if Gonzaga had this years Drake Resume 23-2 couple good wins out of conference but not a ton of quality wins they'd get benefit of doubt based off prior years as you said. I think If Gonzaga was Drake they'd minimum be seeded where w/l metrics have Drake like sor and wab which is an 8/9 seed

 

[GoHawks]

I think the one way is if they win out up to the conference tournament championship and UNI does the same, with the exception of losing to Drake. Then UNI wins that championship game by a very narrow margin (1 or 2 points or OT).

I'd probably agree. Think that puts them at 31-3 if added correctly. That's a crazy high standard imo.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

No, Drake can't, because they're not Gonzaga. Gonzaga has the pedigree to schedule very good OOC games on a consistent basis because they've established themselves as a good team for the last 20 years. Also, Gonzaga doesn't always get a good seed. In the early 2000s they went to the tournament three straight years as 10 or above seeds and made the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 twice.. They also won their conference tournament those years. That's when they started to garner respect. But even since then they've had some years that they've been double digit seeds.

UNI can't even get anybody to pick up the phone. We've offered to go on the road repeatedly for no guarantee other than travel and nobody will take it.

People also seem to forget that during this whole Drake run they've somehow not won a regular season Valley title. That matters for perception as well. The Valley's perception, wrongly IMO, has fallen a bit even though it's in the exact same spot it always is metrics wise.

The only regular season loss Drake can take is at UNI. Solid Q2 and a league road loss can be forgiven. They can probably withstand a loss at UNI and a loss to UNI/Bradley in the Valley title game and sneak in, anything more than that and they're out.

 

[Statefan10]

I was curious so went and looked it up in years past and where the WCC compared to the MVS via KenPom in the Conference Rankings.

2024
WCC-11
MVC- 10

2023
WCC- 9
MVC- 16

2022-
WCC- 9
MVC- 11

2021-
WCC- 8
MVC- 10

2020-
WCC- 8
MVC- 11

2019
WCC- 8
MVC- 15

2018-
WCC- 12
MCV- 9

These conferences are relatively the same. The WCC is a little bit stronger, but not by much.

Yeah the conferences aren't much different. It's usually just Gonzaga and Saint Mary's. The big difference is non-conference scheduling, which isn't Drake's fault, it's actually to Gonzaga's credit. They made a name for themselves as a powerhouse at the mid-major level so playing them as a non-con opponent isn't lose/lose.

 

[NoCreativity]

UNI can't even get anybody to pick up the phone. We've offered to go on the road repeatedly for no guarantee other than travel and nobody will take it.

People also seem to forget that during this whole Drake run they've somehow not won a regular season Valley title. That matters for perception as well. The Valley's perception, wrongly IMO, has fallen a bit even though it's in the exact same spot it always is metrics wise.

The only regular season loss Drake can take is at UNI. Solid Q2 and a league road loss can be forgiven. They can probably withstand a loss at UNI and a loss to UNI/Bradley in the Valley title game and sneak in, anything more than that and they're out.

30-4 gets then in for sure. Five losses and things start to get sketchy.

It seems like we have this discussion every year about them and then they win Arch Madness anyways.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Once Gonzaga is gone, the WCC falls hard. They get a lot of mileage out of Gonzaga giving everybody else 2 Q1 games most every year.

 

[Statefan10]

UNI can't even get anybody to pick up the phone. We've offered to go on the road repeatedly for no guarantee other than travel and nobody will take it.

People also seem to forget that during this whole Drake run they've somehow not won a regular season Valley title. That matters for perception as well. The Valley's perception, wrongly IMO, has fallen a bit even though it's in the exact same spot it always is metrics wise.

The only regular season loss Drake can take is at UNI. Solid Q2 and a league road loss can be forgiven. They can probably withstand a loss at UNI and a loss to UNI/Bradley in the Valley title game and sneak in, anything more than that and they're out.

Yeah I think the Valley's perception started taking a hit when Wichita State left, wrongly IMO.

 

[Statefan10]

Once Gonzaga is gone, the WCC falls hard. They get a lot of mileage out of Gonzaga giving everybody else 2 Q1 games most every year.

Yeah they'll be gone soon. I think Oregon State and Washington State should then join the MWC, which is a far better basketball conference.

 

[NiceMarmot]

Yeah they'll be gone soon. I think Oregon State and Washington State should then join the MWC, which is a far better basketball conference.

Already happening with the new Pac-12 starting not next season but the following. Article mentions there's also been discussions with Grand Canyon and St. Mary's as well. Hope they reach out to New Mexico also.

Basketball powerhouse Gonzaga to join Pac-12 for 2026 season

Gonzaga is set to join the Pac-12 for the 2026-27 season, the conference announced Tuesday.

www.espn.com

 

[NoCreativity]

Yeah they'll be gone soon. I think Oregon State and Washington State should then join the MWC, which is a far better basketball conference.

Why? They are barely scraping by against WCC competition right now.

 

[JohnnyAl]

CoachHines official top 16

1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Houston
4. Florida

5. Tennessee
6. Alabama
7. Iowa State
8. Purdue

9. Texas A&M
10. Texas Tech
11. Arizona
12. Kansas

13. Kentucky
14. Illinois
15. Wisconsin
16. Michigan



EDIT- removed Ole Miss b/c I forgot all about Kentucky.

I think you for about St Johns as well

 

[cyclones500]

Indiana State seemed like a lock until they lost back to back games in mid-February.

Cherry-picking your overall post, just a side-note, even with those losses Indiana State was solid for at least First Four, until a barrage of bid-stealing with AQ's.

Granted, a bubble-ish in probably 1-bid league can't feel safe and expect all the league tournaments to go chalk.

Cliff Notes version, Drake could be in similar situation this season.

 

[Statefan10]

Cherry-picking your overall post, just a side-note, even with those losses Indiana State was solid for at least First Four, until a barrage of bid-stealing with AQ's.

Granted, a bubble-ish in probably 1-bid league can't feel safe and expect all the league tournaments to go chalk.

Cliff Notes version, Drake could be in similar situation this season.

Yeah I agree I think they should've made it

 

[dahliaclone]

I think you for about St Johns as well

I don’t think they’ll be top 16. They are ranked high in AP and coaches but they are #22 in the NET, #16 on KenPom and #23 on Torvik. But if they want to put a Big East team in the top 16 they could make it.

 

[qwerty]

Battle for last 1 and all 2 seeds between these 8 teams. I think the three teams out that fall to 3 seed are: Arizona (fewest wins), Texas Tech (atrocious OOC and 2 Q2 losses) and Tx A&M (fewest road W and lowest WAB). Personally, I would slide Purdue to 3 line but no way they leave B1G out of top two seeds.

 

[istater7]

I think ISU built up enough goodwill early that people bought us as a truly elite team. Knowing that we weren’t at full strength for a stretch will be enough of a factor to give us the nod over Purdue/A&M

 

[CoachHines3]

I think you for about St Johns as well

Meh, they would be in that 17/18/19 range for me.

Net of 22 and 3-4 in Q1