I'm surprised ESPN hasn't moved them up to lock status yet. They still think 3-8 Oklahoma should make the tournament.
NCAA March Madness Men's Bracket Preview
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They want to but the problem is no one (including us) wants to add the Drakes of CBB to a schedule as it's a lose-lose situation based on how metrics are used currently.
As a CBB fan in general I hate that.
I'm not stating my personal opinion, I'm stating what I think the committee will think. I agree with everything you said however I don't think the committee will care to dig that deep.
yeah, they're sitting on those 2 as their only Q1 wins and it wouldnt be inconceivable for KSU to fall into Q2. Even then, they only have 4 Q1\2 wins.
So maybe you say 'fine, but they can only play who's on the schedule, they're playing like an 8 seed'. But the metrics would disagree with that. They're 56 in NET, 60 on kenpom, 54 on torvik, and 79 on BPI.
Sure, they're 21-2, but that's mostly feasting on Q3\4 games.
Lets compare to say Baylor, who is currently the lowest 8 seed on bracketmatrix.
They're 14-9, but 8 of those 9 losses came in quad 1A games! The commitee doesn't want to punish teams that go out and schedule a hard schedule, and Baylor certainly did, getting Tennessee, UConn, Gonzaga, and St Johns on its nonconference slate.
Take away Q1A, because Drake hasn't played any of those, and Baylor has an equal number of Q1B wins, and when you look down at Q2\3, both teams have a loss that's near that Q2\Q3 borderline, but then Drake has that anchor of a loss to 151 Murray State at home.
I think the 1s will be Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Houston.
Florida will be the top #2 seed. I think Alabama has a better resume right now. I would think Iowa St would be a 2 right now, along with probably Purdue and either Tennessee or Texas Tech.
Florida will be the top #2 seed. I think Alabama has a better resume right now. I would think Iowa St would be a 2 right now, along with probably Purdue and either Tennessee or Texas Tech.
K-State is probably the weirdest team in the country. Were playing like one of the worst P5's to now playing like one of the best. Problem with them is their resume is lopsided with good wins and bad losses. They're going to have to get to at least 19 wins to get into the tournament, which means they have to win at least 5/7 to end the year and then pick up one in the conference tournament.
All goes back to scheduling. It's impossible at the Valley/A10/MWC/AAC level so you end up booking home and homes with each other and hoping that you picked the right ones. Power leagues aren't even buying those games anymore because the system does not reward them.
MTE access is going away as well so it's only going to get worse.
MTE access is going away as well so it's only going to get worse.
Honestly this year and last almost emulate one another. Indiana State seemed like a lock until they lost back to back games in mid-February. Gonzaga has also obviously proven themselves in the NCAA tournament and their non-con was very tough this year... Baylor, Arizona State, West Virginia (healthy), Indiana, Kentucky, UCONN, UCLA.
I would be extremely surprised if they do not have us as #7 overall....a 2 seed.
We are currently #7 in the Net, Kenpom, and BPI.
We are currently #7 in the Net, Kenpom, and BPI.
Yeah, I agree, unfortunately they have to be willing to go on the road more. But then that’s not exactly fair cause it makes it that much harder to get the big wins
I honestly can't recall a team that started that poorly and then flipped the script to being one of the most efficient teams in the country. They have a legit shot if winning out prior to the season finale in Manhattan. Lets say they finish 13-7, there's no way they don't make the tournament with that resume.
With I think 19 wins locks them in. 18 wins would probably put them in Dayton.
They are going to be a problem for the committee. They have multiple terrible losses but you can't ignore the level they are playing at right now.
That's exactly it as far as gonzaga and prior years. If resumes were flipped this year meaning Gonzaga was in mvc and 23-2 they're probably a 5 seed granted this would be a much weaker noncon than they typically play but Drake can't schedule teams like zags can
10 seed means they are 37th-40th which is probably about where I'd put them, maybe even a line higher.
12 seed means they are 45th-48th and I have a really hard time thinking that many teams are better than them since they rebounded from that two game slip.
I think there's a thing as looking too hard at full season metrics for mid majors now that so fewer high major teams play them. When high major teams were forced to play Drake they looked like a team that should be in the dance. Even a split with Iowa/ISU would have helped Drake a lot and if they had somehow went 2-0 they'd be a lock, I think they'd have beat Iowa at Carver. They may want to think about just playing at least Iowa away only in terms of a pure "what do we have to do to have a shot at an at large" strategy.
The Miami/FAU wins don't look great anymore but the KSU and Vanderbilt wins look better and better.
No, Drake can't, because they're not Gonzaga. Gonzaga has the pedigree to schedule very good OOC games on a consistent basis because they've established themselves as a good team for the last 20 years. Also, Gonzaga doesn't always get a good seed. In the early 2000s they went to the tournament three straight years as 10 or above seeds and made the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 twice.. They also won their conference tournament those years. That's when they started to garner respect. But even since then they've had some years that they've been double digit seeds.
Yeah I agree and I would error on the side of giving them the benefit of the doubt for the level of basketball they are currently playing at, rather than who they were for the first half of the year. Gotta get to 18/19 wins though if they slip up at all they will not get in.
I was curious so went and looked it up in years past and where the WCC compared to the MVS via KenPom in the Conference Rankings.
2024
WCC-11
MVC- 10
2023
WCC- 9
MVC- 16
2022-
WCC- 9
MVC- 11
2021-
WCC- 8
MVC- 10
2020-
WCC- 8
MVC- 11
2019
WCC- 8
MVC- 15
2018-
WCC- 12
MCV- 9
These conferences are relatively the same. The WCC is a little bit stronger, but not by much.
It'd be really interesting to see the comparison with Gonzaga and Drake removed...because Gonzaga isn't playing against itself but the conference strength gets credit for their legit non conf performance.
My guess is without Gonzaga they're nearly identical and they won't have Gonzaga going forward.
