That sounds like what wives say about husbands' jokes when we go out as couples.
Will we be a 1-6 seed?
- Thread starter KennyPratt42
- Start date
Thanks. Also realize that nobody tells her congrats on the husband.
If people want to find comps to other teams for optimism, 2019 Texas Tech was 15-1 before they lost 3 straight Big 12 games and 4 of 6 in late January, then they won every game the rest of the regular season, dropped their first B12 tourney game, and got a 3 seed and were one Deandre Hunter 3 away from winning a title. You can never predict the arc of a season.
One of the weirder ISU teams started that 3 game conference skid in Lubbock.
They certainly can, I just doubt they will. You can think I’m an idiot but it’s a fact that around 20% of 2 seeds have made it. That’s not 0%, but they were part of the 80% just last year. And this is assuming they don’t drop another game they shouldn’t and actually get a 2. I’m not saying the season is over or the team is a failure, but the odds are not in their favor
Even as a 1 you still generally have to have things go very well including luck to get to a FF.
Even being a 1 seed doesn't make it a sure thing. 40% of 1 seeds make it which means 60% of them don't.
I believe the Cyclones win the next 4 and roll into the at Houston game playing well again.
....and, hopefully, with a healthy Milan with 2 games under his belt.
Of course it’s not a sure thing, but I think we all would’ve preferred they practically double their odds had they scraped by against Kansas State. (Maybe they still would’ve dropped to the 2 line after Kansas, but they would’ve been closer to a 1 than they are now.) And sure, luck plays a role in the tournament no matter your seed. But it can work against you, so don’t you want to maximize your odds of winning? I’m glad a lot of people here are still optimistic, but “Maybe we’ll get a few breaks” is the same thing fans of 10 seeds will say. I would’ve rather been in the scenario of “Poor effort or bad breaks may sink us, but only three other teams have even close to as good of odds to make a deep run.”
As shared in other threads, 1 seeds have significantly higher odds to make deep runs. Drastically better odds than a 3/4 seed, and much better odds than even a 2 seed. It's why all these games do, in fact, matter.
Mid(conference)-Season Check-Up
I think it is being overlooked how good of a resume this team has. Right now they have the 4th most quad 1 wins in the country. Blum has mentioned that going 12-8 in conference probably gets them a 2 seed. 15-5 would likely get them a 1 seed. We hated it last year, but the committee overvalues...
cyclonefanatic.com
Last two posts are spot on.
The memorable Cinderellas and bracket busters in the NCAA have really skewed perception about what the true probabilities are in the tournament. These in-season games matter, because seeding matters. Can't just rationalize them away and say that we need to get lucky in the NCAA or beat good teams anyway.
If we drop a few more, people just aren't going to get it until the bracket comes out and they see what we have to go through to go on a deep run. Then if we lose to a team that we could have avoided until the Elite 8 or Final 4, people will complain about the draw.
The memorable Cinderellas and bracket busters in the NCAA have really skewed perception about what the true probabilities are in the tournament. These in-season games matter, because seeding matters. Can't just rationalize them away and say that we need to get lucky in the NCAA or beat good teams anyway.
If we drop a few more, people just aren't going to get it until the bracket comes out and they see what we have to go through to go on a deep run. Then if we lose to a team that we could have avoided until the Elite 8 or Final 4, people will complain about the draw.
There is a lot of confusion of causality here. Do more 1 seeds make the final four because they are 1 seeds or do more 1 seeds make the final four because 1 seeds are generally better teams? I believe that if ISU loses some games they are proving they aren't as good of a team and THAT is why they have a poorer chance of making the FF, not because they are not getting a 1 seed.As shared in other threads, 1 seeds have significantly higher odds to make deep runs. Drastically better odds than a 3/4 seed, and much better odds than even a 2 seed. It's why all these games do, in fact, matter.
Mid(conference)-Season Check-Up
I think it is being overlooked how good of a resume this team has. Right now they have the 4th most quad 1 wins in the country. Blum has mentioned that going 12-8 in conference probably gets them a 2 seed. 15-5 would likely get them a 1 seed. We hated it last year, but the committee overvalues...
Look at it this way. If a team squeaks by a lot of wins and gets lucky calls and lucky bounces and ends up with a record that gets them a 1 seed but they aren't as good of a team as the other 3 top seeds, they are most likely to be in the 60% that doesn't make the FF rather than the 40% that does.
Managing to get a 1 seed isn't the predictor of success, rather being good enough to earn a 1 seed is. If you are a paper tiger 1 seed you likely aren't making the FF. If you are a strong 2 seed that just had a little bad luck in a couple of games you probably have a better chance.
I'd much rather be a 2 or 3 seed that is clicking on all cylinders than a 1 seed, limping into the tourney, like Houston last year.
I could potentially make an argument that being a 1 and getting the 8/9 winner is scarier than being a 2 and getting the winner of 7/10.
No statistical data to back that up, though. I know alot of it is matchup driven
I agree a 1 isn’t predictive but this is mostly just six of one, half-a-dozen of the other. My ideal is to be a team whose résumé, metrics, etc. are worthy of a 1, and who is therefore selected as a 1, period. At least in 2025–who can really say one team among Tennessee, Alabama, Kansas, Purdue,… is head and shoulders above any of the others?—it’s pretty hard to luck your way into a 1. There will be a weakest 1 seed, sure, but whether we say it’s good to be a 1 or teams should strive to play at the level of other 1s is insignificant to me
