Will we be a 1-6 seed?

[MartyFine]

People may not approve of this post, but ISU didn't play that poorly last night. Only seven turnovers, and rebounding was not bad.

Poor shooting and spacing and passing and offense generally, yes. But better than last Saturday...

 

[NYCYFan]

After tonight, somewhere between a 3 and 4 seems right for our current resume/metrics. Anywhere from a 2 though 8 seed seems possible at this point.

Unless they collapse I can't see them falling all the way down to the 6-8 seed line. 2-5 seems like the most realistic outcome and maybe it's blind faith in a group that has produced WAYYYY more good than bad the last two years but I'm betting strongly on 2 seed.

 

[Cyhig]

Here's the way I look at this:

-Arizona needed a miracle 3 to send the game to OT
-ISU caught Kansas State at a time they are peaking
-It's nearly impossible to beat Kansas at AFH on Big Monday

I saw a better ISU squad last night; they just couldn't knock down their open 3 pointers. But the "hero ball" at Otz mentioned after Kansas State wasn't quite as evident last night. ISU only turned it over 7 times last night. That is a huge improvement vs the last few games. They were attacking the glass much better, especially Jackson.

I am still optimistic this team will find its mojo again. The schedule the next 2 weeks is much easier. Great opportunity to "get things right" and build confidence/momentum for March, when it really matters most

 

[MartyFine]

 

[State2015]

Not many realistic opportunities for good wins left and plenty of bad losses available.

If we're a 7 seed or below will you delete your account?

 

[Clonefan32]

People may not approve of this post, but ISU didn't play that poorly last night. Only seven turnovers, and rebounding was not bad.

Poor shooting and spacing and passing and offense generally, yes. But better than last Saturday...

It really is just kind of the **** about basketball. In any given game, you may just not have any shots fall. In football, the more physical and fast team usually wins out over time. In basketball, sometimes you do everything right and shots don't fall for you and they fall for the other team.

We definitely have some schematic things to figure out on offense, but you just can't imagine shots don't start falling again at some point.

 

[NoCreativity]

People may not approve of this post, but ISU didn't play that poorly last night. Only seven turnovers, and rebounding was not bad.

Poor shooting and spacing and passing and offense generally, yes. But better than last Saturday...

Torvick's game score metric disagrees. It was the 2nd worst game since Pitt in 2023, only topped by the KSU debacle 2 days earlier.

 

[cyclone82]

This is still a top 4 seed team. And, likely gets itself together and ends up a 2 or 3 .
Big 12 is just too tough to string together the wins needed to get back to the 1 line.

 

[NATEizKING]

Weird people think this is ridiculous. 1 is gone winning out would be a 2. Winning the games we should is likely a 3. 6 seems drastic but 4 or 5 isn't crazy.



29-8 got us a two seed last year but we finished second in the league and won the tournament. Hard to see is finishing that high this year. A 3 seed seems about right if we can get things figured out.

The poll is 1-6 or 7+...

 

[MeowingCows]

People may not approve of this post, but ISU didn't play that poorly last night. Only seven turnovers, and rebounding was not bad.

Poor shooting and spacing and passing and offense generally, yes. But better than last Saturday...

I said I wanted us to take more shots and don't turn the ball over. That's exactly what we did, we just didn't make any of the shots. I'll still take that sliver of hope for a good shooting day over multiple games of 15+ turnovers.

 

[MartyFine]

Torvick's game score metric disagrees. It was the 2nd worst game since Pitt in 2023, only topped by the KSU debacle 2 days earlier.

Yes, missing all of your shots will do that do game score metrics. These metrics do a poor job of measuring effort, or the lack thereof like last Saturday...

 

[VeloClone]

I'd rather make the NIT anyway we'd have a realistic chance of winning that

 

[CoachHines3]

We currently have 3 Q1 opportunities left. BYU could potentially be a 4th. They are very close to being in the Top 30 of NET. Lets, for argument sake, say they become a Q1 meaning we have 4 opportunities remaining. 2 of those are at home and 2 are on the road. Conservatively, lets say we go 2-2 in those games. That would put us at 8 Q1 wins.

We were 10-6 in Q1 games last season. We had more opportunities last season, though.

We are still tied for 4th in the country in Q1 wins with 6.

Did you know?!? -- On March 13th, 2024 ( 1 day before Big 12 Conf. Tourney began) Iowa State had 8 Q1 wins.
Did you know x2?!?! -- On February 4th 2024 (exactly 1 year ago today) Iowa State was 3-4 in Q1 games.




Here are some current metrics to our resume. WAB is a good # to look at. Currently 11th. Now depending what happens in front of us, I don't foresee us being worse than a 3 seed. I would argue we'd have to lose a few Q2 OR Q3 games.

 

[2076]

We will boat race TCU Saturday, and I’m excited to be there to watch it in person. I think we end up as a 2 seed. This is a great team who hit a mid season lull. It happens, it’s going to fine.

 

[RagingCloner]

We currently have 3 Q1 opportunities left. BYU could potentially be a 4th. They are very close to being in the Top 30 of NET. Lets, for argument sake, say they become a Q1 meaning we have 4 opportunities remaining. 2 of those are at home and 2 are on the road. Conservatively, lets say we go 2-2 in those games. That would put us at 8 Q1 wins.

We were 10-6 in Q1 games last season. We had more opportunities last season, though.

We are still tied for 4th in the country in Q1 wins.

Did you know?!? -- On March 13th, 2024 ( 1 day before Big 12 Conf. Tourney began) Iowa State had 8 Q1 wins.
Did you know x2?!?! -- On February 4th 2024 (exactly 1 year ago today) Iowa State was 3-4 in Q1 games.

View attachment 142536

View attachment 142537
Here are some current metrics to our resume. WAB is a good # to look at. Currently 11th. Now depending what happens in front of us, I don't foresee us being worse than a 3 seed. I would argue we'd have to lose a few Q2 OR Q3 games.



View attachment 142538

Hey can you do us all favor and stop using logic and actual intelligence here? Some of us still want to be irrational and act like the sky is falling and the we'll be a double digit tourney seed

 

[CoachHines3]

Hey can you do us all favor and stop using logic and actual intelligence here? Some of us still want to be irrational and act like the sky is falling and the we'll be a double digit tourney seed

THIS TEAM IS GONNA BE A LAST 4 IN ARENT THEY

ILL BOOK MY TICKETS TO DAYTON OMGOMGOMGOMG

 

[KennyPratt42]

We currently have 3 Q1 opportunities left. BYU could potentially be a 4th. They are very close to being in the Top 30 of NET. Lets, for argument sake, say they become a Q1 meaning we have 4 opportunities remaining. 2 of those are at home and 2 are on the road. Conservatively, lets say we go 2-2 in those games. That would put us at 8 Q1 wins.

We were 10-6 in Q1 games last season. We had more opportunities last season, though.

We are still tied for 4th in the country in Q1 wins.

Did you know?!? -- On March 13th, 2024 ( 1 day before Big 12 Conf. Tourney began) Iowa State had 8 Q1 wins.
Did you know x2?!?! -- On February 4th 2024 (exactly 1 year ago today) Iowa State was 3-4 in Q1 games.

View attachment 142536

View attachment 142537
Here are some current metrics to our resume. WAB is a good # to look at. Currently 11th. Now depending what happens in front of us, I don't foresee us being worse than a 3 seed. I would argue we'd have to lose a few Q2 OR Q3 games.



View attachment 142538

10th to 11th on the s-curve with current resume seems about right. We have 5 games left that will certainly be Q2 or Q3 that won't move us up if we win and will move us down if we lose. 2 games that are on the border of Q1/Q2 that can help us if we win comfortably. Then the hardest game on our schedule and a solid home Q1 game.

My original point was that we have more downside risk than upside with our remaining schedule and that we were currently sitting about a 3 seed (at the time I thought our metrics would drop slightly more and we'd have more of a 12 or 13 on the s-curve resume after last night). If we right the ship and look like the team we did a month ago then those saying we are a 2 or 3 will be correct. But if the slide lasts for another couple weeks we have a reasonable amount of downside risk.

 

[Bo Darville]

I think some are being emotional instead of logical and overreacting due to losing three in a row and having their 1 seed expectations hurt. So the sky is falling now and the team can’t be good anymore. The answer is in between. Team lost its juice after Arizona and it sucks but they’ll get it back.

Fans are just adjusting expectations to the "in-between" you're describing. That's a 3-4 seed.

It's still a good season, but a 3-4 (notably worse than last year) is a tough pill to swallow when fans were looking at a 1 seed, potential conference championship, and talking about this team being ISU's best. People are going to overreact.

 

[Bo Darville]

10th to 11th on the s-curve with current resume seems about right. We have 5 games left that will certainly be Q2 or Q3 that won't move us up if we win and will move us down if we lose. 2 games that are on the border of Q1/Q2 that can help us if we win comfortably. Then the hardest game on our schedule and a solid home Q1 game.

My original point was that we have more downside risk than upside with our remaining schedule and that we were currently sitting about a 3 seed (at the time I thought our metrics would drop slightly more and we'd have more of a 12 or 13 on the s-curve resume after last night). If we right the ship and look like the team we did a month ago then those saying we are a 2 or 3 will be correct. But if the slide lasts for another couple weeks we have a reasonable amount of downside risk.

This is spot on.

 

[NYCYFan]

This is still a top 4 seed team. And, likely gets itself together and ends up a 2 or 3 .
Big 12 is just too tough to string together the wins needed to get back to the 1 line.

Actually I'd argue the opposite, that the Big 12 (or at least the Iowa State schedule) isn't tough enough to allow them to get back to the 1 seed line with even one loss so they really have no room for error.

Edit: Actually I think I'm saying what you were saying now that I read it back. You're saying that the Big 12 is not good enough to string enough good wins together to be a 1 seed.

Anyway, I do disagree with that. I think they're pretty close to locked into a 1 seed if they sweep their remaining games.
A 24-5 - 14-4 Iowa State team that would have had wins over Marquette, Kansas, Arizona, Baylor, at Houston, at Texas Tech would be in line for a 1 seed going into the Big 12 tournament assuming that they make the finals of the tournament at the very least. Seems very unlikely that they sweep the rest of the regular season games but the 1 seed is not an impossibility yet.