2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[ebState]

The difference this year is oc course the espn narrative. This year it's "how tough this conference is!" Vs last year it was "the conference gamed the system!" When the b12 had those stats.

That was mostly coming from ACC fans pointing out ISU, and to some degree other schools, (legitimately) weak OOC schedule to justify why their computer numbers were so bad.

This year the ACC is bad again (like they were the year before and the year before that and the year before that...) but the difference is the SEC and ACC played each other and the SEC wiped the floor. Only 2 ACC teams won.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I just don’t buy us being a 3 even if we lose all 3 big road games.

To be fair to the Torvik model, it predicted Iowa St. would be the first three (#9 overall) if that happened. That is borderline a #2. Somebody sneezes in the committee room and it could change.

I don't think you'd consider a #2 unreasonable for a 26-5 (16-4) outcome with those five losses consisting of Auburn, @ WVU, @ Arizona, @ Kansas, and @ Houston, all of which are "good losses."

 

[Clone95]

The Baylor win is just barely hanging on as a Q1 (they're 29th in NET). Iowa is definitely trending to be a Q2 victory, as well. That would drop us to 3-2 in Q1.

 

[cyfan92]

My new favorite CBB website for WAB quick references! Enjoy!

Team Sheet

Team details across predictive and resume metrics.

byc.evidence.app

Saturday's game at ASU would be the third best win for the season according to WAB, slightly above the CyHawk game

 

[Nothingman]

The perception and the analytics being down on the Big XII this year are primarily due to Baylor and Arizona underperforming in the non-con this year. But while the Big XII is down a little, its really just the SEC beating everybody in the non-con this year that makes the Big XII look bad in comparison.

The bottom of the Big 12 is also much worse since expanding last year. Totally agree the top is as strong as ever though.

 

[Sigmapolis]

The bottom of the Big 12 is also much worse since expanding last year. Totally agree the top is as strong as ever though.

We shouldn't entirely blame the new guys.

Houston and Arizona are elite teams. BYU, Cincinnati, and Arizona St. are good to good-ish ones. We've had plenty of additions to the conference that are obviously strong basketball adds.

We're hurt just as much by TCU becoming aggressively mediocre (when Dixon had them in the #6 seed range for a few years) and the bottom falling out for once reliable OSU and K-State.

The Cowpokes and the Mildcats not sucking would help a lot.

The other five "returners" (Iowa St., KU, Tech, WVU, and Baylor) are fine.

 

[nrg4isu]

My new favorite CBB website for WAB quick references! Enjoy!

Team Sheet

Team details across predictive and resume metrics.

byc.evidence.app

Saturday's game at ASU would be the third best win for the season according to WAB, slightly above the CyHawk game

WAB is wins above bubble right?

I'm flummoxed by Houston. All of the highest WAB ratings are against Houston (both already played and future). It seems to me that they're being rewarded by beating the living **** out of teams they're supposed to beat. Still no great wins. We'll find out Saturday against KU if they're legit.

 

[Cloned4Life]

WAB is wins above bubble right?

I'm flummoxed by Houston. All of the highest WAB ratings are against Houston (both already played and future). It seems to me that they're being rewarded by beating the living **** out of teams they're supposed to beat. Still no great wins. We'll find out Saturday against KU if they're legit.

Have you watched them? They look better, more athletic, more skilled, than last year.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Have you watched them? They look better, more athletic, more skilled, than last year.

I think most people assumed they'd take a step back without Jamal Shead.

But they really haven't.

They look like Godzilla and four of his buddies have come to town to kick your ass.

 

[bluestarcyclone]

I think most people assumed they'd take a step back without Jamal Shead.

But they really haven't.

They look like Godzilla and four of his buddies have come to town to kick your ass.

Tomorrow should be a good test to see if that's still true against higher level competition. But yeah, they look like a damn buzzsaw right now, especially at home.

 

[Cyhig]

I think most people assumed they'd take a step back without Jamal Shead.

But they really haven't.

They look like Godzilla and four of his buddies have come to town to kick your ass.

I'm looking forward to Houston player better competition to get a really fair judgement about the team. Their last game vs a ranked opponent was nearly 2 months ago (Nov 26 vs Alabama). Since then their two most difficult games from what I can tell were vs San Diego State and West Virginia. I get the analytics demonstrate Houston is a very good team, but I just want to see them pass the "eye" test against a quality opponent

 

[FerShizzle]

I think most people assumed they'd take a step back without Jamal Shead.

But they really haven't.

They look like Godzilla and four of his buddies have come to town to kick your ass.

Their front line is a bunch of brawlers. Their guards are skilled.

 

[Statefan10]

I'm looking forward to Houston player better competition to get a really fair judgement about the team. Their last game vs a ranked opponent was nearly 2 months ago (Nov 26 vs Alabama). Since then their two most difficult games from what I can tell were vs San Diego State and West Virginia. I get the analytics demonstrate Houston is a very good team, but I just want to see them pass the "eye" test against a quality opponent

I do think Houston is really good but that San Diego State loss wasn't great. It's now teetering as a Q2 loss to the 4th place team in the Mountain West. Their next three games are @ KU, @ WVU and home vs. Texas Tech. This week is a tough one for them.

 

[Acer88]

I do think Houston is really good but that San Diego State loss wasn't great. It's now teetering as a Q2 loss to the 4th place team in the Mountain West. Their next three games are @ KU, @ WVU and home vs. Texas Tech. This week is a tough one for them.

Hoping they go 0-3!

 

[CloniesForLife]

I think most people assumed they'd take a step back without Jamal Shead.

But they really haven't.

They look like Godzilla and four of his buddies have come to town to kick your ass.

This year's team is deeper. The front court is stacked with depth and they have a lot of good guards. No Sheads but good quality depth

 

[Nothingman]

We shouldn't entirely blame the new guys.

Houston and Arizona are elite teams. BYU, Cincinnati, and Arizona St. are good to good-ish ones. We've had plenty of additions to the conference that are obviously strong basketball adds.

We're hurt just as much by TCU becoming aggressively mediocre (when Dixon had them in the #6 seed range for a few years) and the bottom falling out for once reliable OSU and K-State.

The Cowpokes and the Mildcats not sucking would help a lot.

The other five "returners" (Iowa St., KU, Tech, WVU, and Baylor) are fine.

For sure it’s not just the new teams. It just happened to coincide with the timing of adding the new teams. Some of the new teams are ****. Some of the OGs like KSU and OSU are **** this year. I wasn’t blaming it on the new teams, like you said some have added value. Just that the bottom third of the big 12 dropped off a lot the last two years.

 

[twincyties]

My new favorite CBB website for WAB quick references! Enjoy!

Team Sheet

Team details across predictive and resume metrics.

byc.evidence.app

Saturday's game at ASU would be the third best win for the season according to WAB, slightly above the CyHawk game

To be fair to the Torvik model, it predicted Iowa St. would be the first three (#9 overall) if that happened. That is borderline a #2. Somebody sneezes in the committee room and it could change.

I don't think you'd consider a #2 unreasonable for a 26-5 (16-4) outcome with those five losses consisting of Auburn, @ WVU, @ Arizona, @ Kansas, and @ Houston, all of which are "good losses."

Part of this depends on conference tournament in my opinion. And also where we finish in regular season.

Auburn is a lock for number 1 seed barring a complete meltdown. Duke should be a number 1 assuming no one in the ACC is going to offer any resistance.

Probably one other SEC team among Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Alabama.

So I think the 4th one seed is us or Houston depending how big 12 shakes out.

If those are our five regular season losses and we win the big 12 tournament I think we get a one seed.

 

[CySmurf]

It's inevitable we are getting a 2 seed again even though by every measure and the eye test we are a much better overall team than last year.

Probably this...but my main hope (wherever we get seeded) is that we're playing our best basketball with everyone back and totally healthy when that time arrives. I feel good about ISU matching up with anybody in that scenario!

 

[CySmurf]

I'm looking forward to Houston player better competition to get a really fair judgement about the team. Their last game vs a ranked opponent was nearly 2 months ago (Nov 26 vs Alabama). Since then their two most difficult games from what I can tell were vs San Diego State and West Virginia. I get the analytics demonstrate Houston is a very good team, but I just want to see them pass the "eye" test against a quality opponent

I think they're legit and will beat Kansas (at Kansas) by 6-10 pts.

 

[Sigmapolis]

If those are our five regular season losses and we win the big 12 tournament I think we get a one seed.

The committee has shown it doesn't put much stock into conference tournaments. It appears that it is mostly "done" by the time they're played and doesn't adjust its setup too much from there.