Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cykadelic2]

You can keep using chat GTP and using big words but it’s not going to happen. I will happily eat crow if it does but it will not happen.

In America, you are only worth what someone is willing to pay you.

.....yeah, especially when a duopoly manipulates CFB conferences to significantly decrease what is being paid out and block access for deeper pocketed media entities to provide higher payouts.

....and please feel free to utilize AI as you see fit to decipher my big words.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Hard to claim duopoly when ESPN has several sublicensing deals with Warner Brothers Discovery and CBS/Paramount.

I know you desperately want the feds involved but there's no appetite for it and the courts have already ruled that conferences can negotiate TV rights.

 

[KnappShack]

Sorry if posted

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Hard to claim duopoly when ESPN has several sublicensing deals with Warner Brothers Discovery and CBS/Paramount.

I know you desperately want the feds involved but there's no appetite for it and the courts have already ruled that conferences can negotiate TV rights.

Also athletics is kinda small potato’s at these university’s, nothing in WSU’s mission statement is about playing power football. It absolutely sucks but congress isn’t getting involved for this because it isn’t actually harming the university, it’s harming the football team.

 

[cykadelic2]

Hard to claim duopoly when ESPN has several sublicensing deals with Warner Brothers Discovery and CBS/Paramount.

I know you desperately want the feds involved but there's no appetite for it and the courts have already ruled that conferences can negotiate TV rights.

Yeah, it was so nice of ESPN to sublicense a couple of CFP games to WBD so as to not annoy their NFL partner. It doesn't remove the fact that ESPN was the sole bidder of the second most valuable sports property in the US. That alone should raise a red flag relative to anti-trust behavior.

And Fox, not ESPN, sublicensed B10 rights to CBS. Again, a sweetheart deal by Fox on an obvious overpay by CBS for what they got for inventory.

Job well done by both of the duopolists.

 

[ClubCy]

.....yeah, especially when a duopoly manipulates CFB conferences to significantly decrease what is being paid out and block access for deeper pocketed media entities to provide higher payouts.

....and please feel free to utilize AI as you see fit to decipher my big words.

There are already duopolies in America.

Coca Cola and Pepsi?
Apple and Android?
Boeing and Airbus?

Yet you think the feds are going to care about what media controls college football?

I am agreeing with you, we all are, we want some sort of common sense and someone to step up and take control.

We are saying it won’t happen

 

[Clonehomer]

Hard to claim duopoly when ESPN has several sublicensing deals with Warner Brothers Discovery and CBS/Paramount.

I know you desperately want the feds involved but there's no appetite for it and the courts have already ruled that conferences can negotiate TV rights.

I think getting the fed involved would be more for giving the NCAA more power to regulate the academic side to achieve their mission statement more than conference TV deals. The recent losses in the courts could be reversed with congressional approval to allow the NCAA to govern themselves without anti-trust concerns. As we get closer and closer to athletics separating completely from academics, I could see where congress may step in. That’s the only thing that I could see as a potential from the federal level. I’m thinking things like granting the NCAA the power to regulate the transfer rules and eligibility without threats from lawsuits rather than congress trying to overhaul the system themselves.

 

[moforisu]

The "market" isn't making choices for CFB. The market is currently controlled by ESPN and Fox and their rights essentially in perpetuity of the B10 and SEC. Because of the existing fragmentation of P4 and CFP TV rights, millions of dollars are being left on the table. Exhibit A being the absurdity of ESPN being the sole bidder for the recent CFP extension, the 2nd most valuable USA TV rights property behind the NFL. That sure as hell wasn't market driven.

The "market" is headed down a path in the 2030 timeframe of additional consolidation within ESPN/SEC and Fox/B10, massive reductions in TV payouts for whoever is left out (including ISU) and keeping other deep pocketed producers out of the CFB/CFP space. I don't why you would characterize that as "sanity", it is outright destruction as seen already with Oregon St and Washington St.

The only rational fix is to downsize conferences into 7 10-team entities and aggregate all TV rights and bid them out NFL style so that new bidders like Netflix (coming off big NFL ratings), Amazon, CBS/Paramount (with new Ellison family money) and Comcast/NBC can get all get access to some of the CFP rights and drive up their interest in regular season content. Then implement a revenue sharing mechanism where 75%-80% of the revenue pie is shared equally and 20%-25% is allocated based on TV ratings. Ohio St will make more money in that scenario but I am sure Fox and their puppet consultants are telling them otherwise.

 

[FinalFourCy]

There has been nothing that compares to what happened to Oregon St and Washington St in terms of the amount of immediate financial damage to those schools (over $20M annually). And the looming prospect of 25 to 30 more schools facing similar financial damage is also unprecedented and the damage goes far beyond ADs losing those revenue streams, it also has profound negative impacts to enrollment, admissions and donorship.

And your last paragraph is dead wrong beginning in 2032 if ESPN and Fox have their way.

Look at all the intervening to save Oregon State and WSU, right??

Those two didn’t lose anything- just risky spending on their part for assuming they had money coming that was never under contract.

The two middle conferences are making more than ever until the next decade. Past that is unknown. Good luck getting federal action before that changes.

Past the current deals, it is very likely the middle conference won’t be facing the situation of Oregon St and WSU. If it’s a P2 of 40 or 48, and the third conference of 30 or 24, ex-P5s not making as much as before will be limited

Plus, when the current deals expire, congress won’t act to save schools from being left behind, that are already perceived as having fallen behind

The networks and P2 can sit back and let the revenue and exposure disparity slowly suffocate, until apathy kills any chance a minority bloc gets enough support to have federal intervention

 

[Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman]

Where did they get these numbers from? The one that seems off the most is Kansas and ours feels a little low.

The numbers aren’t right. Every year we have sports “media” people put this stuff out that others run with. Teams with a lot of espn+ or ACCn games are grossly underestimated. You can do a rough check yourself if you want.

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

 

[FinalFourCy]

The numbers aren’t right. Every year we have sports “media” people put this stuff out that others run with. Teams with a lot of espn+ or ACCn games are grossly underestimated. You can do a rough check yourself if you want.

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2024 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

Sure, but schools generally only have a lot of games on those mediums if they’re of low TV valuation

 

[FinalFourCy]

There are already duopolies in America.

Coca Cola and Pepsi?
Apple and Android?
Boeing and Airbus?

Yet you think the feds are going to care about what media controls college football?

I am agreeing with you, we all are, we want some sort of common sense and someone to step up and take control.

We are saying it won’t happen

I’m more optimistic big money like PE or Tech saves the sport by buying enough of the rights that it defacto gets major college football to being a single entity.

People hate on PE, but an industry that is cannibalizing itself with arms race spending and prisoner dilemmas, in which schools are struggling to make profit despite $100 to $200 million in revenue, needs some reorganization, even if from those looking to carve out a profit

 

[Cloneon]

Hard to claim duopoly when ESPN has several sublicensing deals with Warner Brothers Discovery and CBS/Paramount.

I know you desperately want the feds involved but there's no appetite for it and the courts have already ruled that conferences can negotiate TV rights.

One could point out that Microsoft funded Apple at one time to prevent a monopoly. One could argue that strategy is used frequently today to muddy those same waters, but in other scenarios.

 

[Cloneon]

IMO, what is antitrust, is the media companies manipulating the popularity of programs for their best interests. Let's face it. If ESPN wanted ISU to be popular, they'd certainly be able to do it.

 

[Big_Sill]

You are right. But what attendance does do is show fan support overall.

Does it matter to the media people? No. But it is a way to judge how a fanbase cares about the team. Rarely you will find a team that has great viewership, but an empty stadium, and the opposite it also true.

Its just part of overall image of the program, not so much that attendance matters to the media. It would be really hard to have an impressive brand worth picking up if their own fans wont show up.

We might qualify as great attendance and poor viewership in the eyes of media.

 

[Clonehomer]

We might qualify as great attendance and poor viewership in the eyes of media.

And I’d point to the FCS vs FBS playoff numbers last week. The network matters more than the teams. If ISU were in a P2 conference getting P2 level exposure, we’d be doing just fine for viewership.

The key will be the next evolution for this where athletics become a subscription model. If the Big12 were to sign up with Amazon or Netflix, how many subs would ISU drive? I think we’d do pretty well in that case. We may not have a large following compared to some schools, but what we have is loyal and already conditioned to pay for things like ESPN+.

 

[BCClone]

And I’d point to the FCS vs FBS playoff numbers last week. The network matters more than the teams. If ISU were in a P2 conference getting P2 level exposure, we’d be doing just fine for viewership.

The key will be the next evolution for this where athletics become a subscription model. If the Big12 were to sign up with Amazon or Netflix, how many subs would ISU drive? I think we’d do pretty well in that case. We may not have a large following compared to some schools, but what we have is loyal and already conditioned to pay for things like ESPN+.

It also showed college football is way under the NFL for viewership. It can’t compete.

 

[cykadelic2]

And I’d point to the FCS vs FBS playoff numbers last week. The network matters more than the teams. If ISU were in a P2 conference getting P2 level exposure, we’d be doing just fine for viewership.

The key will be the next evolution for this where athletics become a subscription model. If the Big12 were to sign up with Amazon or Netflix, how many subs would ISU drive? I think we’d do pretty well in that case. We may not have a large following compared to some schools, but what we have is loyal and already conditioned to pay for things like ESPN+.

Netflix and Amazon will have minimal interest in the B12 if they don't have access to CFP rights. Nor will any other network/streamer.

 

[CyclonesRock]

Sure, but schools generally only have a lot of games on those mediums if they’re of low TV valuation

Need I point out that Kansas/ISU basketball was on + last year even though both teams were at the top of the conference and highly ranked? Even a playoff NFL game was put on a streamer last year. They are slowly trying to condition us for pay per view on a permanent basis.

 

[Clonehomer]

Netflix and Amazon will have minimal interest in the B12 if they don't have access to CFP rights. Nor will any other network/streamer.

Didn’t they make an offer for the PAC12? I thought that was one of the offers they declined.

I don’t see cable (streaming bundles) being a major player by the time the contracts come up again. They are losing subscribers at rates that are unsustainable for that model. Sports are the only thing keeping them afloat already. I see the sports providers going independent and pushing everything to a subscription model.