***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***

[CYdTracked]

Gotta take anything BN posts with a grain of salt. It's all click bait most of the time. Every trade deadline and offseason there are numerous rumor articles how we are "in" on just about everyone in some form. Until you see credible sources confirming anything its just BN throwing speculation out most of the time for the sake of getting views and hoping they get it right on 1 of the 100 rumors they write about.

That being said would not shock me either if they are trying to get payroll down after going over the luxury tax threshold in 2024 on a team that missed the playoffs. The Tauchman non-tender and rumors about shopping Bellinger around make me think they are not going to add an OF and want to create a path for Caissie and Alcantara to get opportunities in 2025. If they are going to do any meaningful spending it will be for pitching I think as they are kind of limited on where they can improve position wise without moving a contract. Starting to feel like they want to ride things out 1 more year even if that means missing the playoffs again and see where they stand with the development of top positional prospects before blowing things completely up or turning over the roster some with prospects that hopefully are ready. Wish they could add a big bat or 2 in the middle of this current roster but where do you add it without making a trade? OF your top 10 pospects Shaw is either going to play 2B or 3B, Caissie and Alcantara OF, Cam Smith 3B but he is probably more on target for 2026, Triantos also at 2B, Ballestros I guess could be in the catcher mix but my guess is he'll be more of a DH and backup C when he gets a show, Rojas is a SS that probably is 2026 at the earliest. You have Paredes already at 3B who I'm not sold as being much of an upgrade over Morel but we'll see and will have to do something with Nico at 2B to clear that spot as well.

Looking at the multi-year payroll situation Nico is signed through 2026, Paredes is under team control through 2027, Busch even further than that, Happ and Suzuki through 2026 with full NTC, Swanson is signed through 2029 also with a full NTC. Jed doesn't have the sack to make bold moves so I expect more of the reclamation projects and cheap signings after the high priced guys come off the board and more of the same from the last 2 seasons. Fully expect the Cubs to be just good enough to tease us with a hot streak and make us think they can compete for a wild card spot them come crashing down to reality just like they have the past 2 years.

 

[isucy86]

Nothing says meaningless clickbait than a tweet that's source is tea leaves

Per Spotrac the Cubs 2024 payroll was slightly under $230M. And Spotrac projects the Cubs 2025 payroll at a little under $171M based on arbitration projections. Cubs 2025 Payroll

So unless the Cubs are going to keep Bellinger AND spend $60M on free agents, they will be under last years payroll. Trade Bellinger and they have around $87M to spend on free agents and still be under 2024.

I could see the Cubs targeting this type of spend based on Spotrac market values:

C: Higashioka ($1.6M), Jansen ($4.4M) or Carson Kelly ($2.2M)
SP: Manaea ($16.1M), Severino ($14.0), Buehler ($3.9M)
RP: Scott ($16.4M), Hoffman ($6.2M)
1B/DH: Christian Walker ($22.1M)

Sans Bellinger, even if the Cubs signed the 4 highest paid guys above, the Cubs would save $20M in 2025 over 2024. And there is no guarantee Hoerner($11.5M) or Taillon ($18M) will be on the Cubs opening day roster if the Cubs decide to turn over their roster to have a soft rebuild.

 

[CYdTracked]

To me this statement on the BN article pretty much sums of the state of the Cubs roster:
"We can all agree that the market says Cody Bellinger is overpaid *relative to his expected production*, but that does not mean he’s not a good and useful player. In fact, I’d argue that he’s flatly one of the Cubs’ expected best players for 2025."

The Cubs Reportedly Sound Weirdly Eager to Move Out Salary - Bleacher Nation

If no one is interested in a player you consider one of the best players on your roster that is not saying much about how the roster is currently constructed.

 

[dafarmer]

JFC, please don’t send any more Cubs to the Yankees. We actually want to win the Series. Keep those jinxes in the NL.

 

[BigJCy]

ESPN Writer David Schoenfield propose this trade:

---

Philadelphia Phillies trade 3B Alec Bohm to the Seattle Mariners, the Mariners deal RHP Luis Castillo and C Harry Ford to the Chicago Cubs, and the Cubs send CF Cody Bellinger to the Phillies and 2B Nico Hoerner to the Mariners

OK, here's what we know:

1. The Phillies seem intent on doing something significant this offseason after re-signing only Aaron Nola last winter, and Bohm's name has popped up in trade rumors.

2. The Cubs would consider trading Bellinger after he exercised his $27.5 million player option, and they have Matt Shaw ready to take over at second base to replace Hoerner.

3. The Mariners need a third baseman after non-tendering Josh Rojas and a second baseman after not picking up Jorge Polanco's option, but they're limited in adding payroll.

As far as fits go: Bohm and Hoerner give the Mariners two much-needed contact hitters without raising the payroll as those two will make less than Castillo; the Cubs trim some salary and add a durable, quality starter in Castillo, plus they get an excellent catching prospect in Ford; the Phillies get a desired upgrade in the outfield and have Edmundo Sosa to play third until prospect Aidan Miller is ready, probably in 2026. Maybe Chicago and Seattle send some cash or a lesser prospect Philadelphia's way to cancel out some of the difference between Bellinger's salary and Bohm's salary. Will this happen? Probably not. Is it fun? Yes!

 

[Clark]

ESPN Writer David Schoenfield propose this trade:

---

Philadelphia Phillies trade 3B Alec Bohm to the Seattle Mariners, the Mariners deal RHP Luis Castillo and C Harry Ford to the Chicago Cubs, and the Cubs send CF Cody Bellinger to the Phillies and 2B Nico Hoerner to the Mariners

OK, here's what we know:

1. The Phillies seem intent on doing something significant this offseason after re-signing only Aaron Nola last winter, and Bohm's name has popped up in trade rumors.

2. The Cubs would consider trading Bellinger after he exercised his $27.5 million player option, and they have Matt Shaw ready to take over at second base to replace Hoerner.

3. The Mariners need a third baseman after non-tendering Josh Rojas and a second baseman after not picking up Jorge Polanco's option, but they're limited in adding payroll.

As far as fits go: Bohm and Hoerner give the Mariners two much-needed contact hitters without raising the payroll as those two will make less than Castillo; the Cubs trim some salary and add a durable, quality starter in Castillo, plus they get an excellent catching prospect in Ford; the Phillies get a desired upgrade in the outfield and have Edmundo Sosa to play third until prospect Aidan Miller is ready, probably in 2026. Maybe Chicago and Seattle send some cash or a lesser prospect Philadelphia's way to cancel out some of the difference between Bellinger's salary and Bohm's salary. Will this happen? Probably not. Is it fun? Yes!

I wouldn't hate this trade but I'm always a little leery of trading for prospects coming off disappointing years. If you can get a top 100 prospect for Bellinger, do it. If you can get a top 50 guy if you pay most of Bellinger's deal, then do it.

 

[isucy86]

ESPN Writer David Schoenfield propose this trade:

---

Philadelphia Phillies trade 3B Alec Bohm to the Seattle Mariners, the Mariners deal RHP Luis Castillo and C Harry Ford to the Chicago Cubs, and the Cubs send CF Cody Bellinger to the Phillies and 2B Nico Hoerner to the Mariners

OK, here's what we know:

1. The Phillies seem intent on doing something significant this offseason after re-signing only Aaron Nola last winter, and Bohm's name has popped up in trade rumors.

2. The Cubs would consider trading Bellinger after he exercised his $27.5 million player option, and they have Matt Shaw ready to take over at second base to replace Hoerner.

3. The Mariners need a third baseman after non-tendering Josh Rojas and a second baseman after not picking up Jorge Polanco's option, but they're limited in adding payroll.

As far as fits go: Bohm and Hoerner give the Mariners two much-needed contact hitters without raising the payroll as those two will make less than Castillo; the Cubs trim some salary and add a durable, quality starter in Castillo, plus they get an excellent catching prospect in Ford; the Phillies get a desired upgrade in the outfield and have Edmundo Sosa to play third until prospect Aidan Miller is ready, probably in 2026. Maybe Chicago and Seattle send some cash or a lesser prospect Philadelphia's way to cancel out some of the difference between Bellinger's salary and Bohm's salary. Will this happen? Probably not. Is it fun? Yes!

Intriguing trade suggestion. I really like the idea of Luis Castillo as he is a high strikeout righty. Feel like if we are adding a top-of-rotation arm, it should be a righty as Steele and Imanaga are both lefties.

Ford is young (21) and a former #1 draft pic. But he was at AA in 2024, so he's probably not Chicago ready for 2025. But that's probably not a huge issue if Amaya's 2025 production matches his 2nd half 2024.

But if I was Jed, I'd want a 3rd player if I'm trading away two above average MLBers in Bellinger and Hoerner. But maybe Bellinger's contract is viewed as toxic by MLB teams not the Yankees, Dodgers or Mets.

 

[Cyforce]

Intriguing trade suggestion. I really like the idea of Luis Castillo as he is a high strikeout righty. Feel like if we are adding a top-of-rotation arm, it should be a righty as Steele and Imanaga are both lefties.

Ford is young (21) and a former #1 draft pic. But he was at AA in 2024, so he's probably not Chicago ready for 2025. But that's probably not a huge issue if Amaya's 2025 production matches his 2nd half 2024.

But if I was Jed, I'd want a 3rd player if I'm trading away two above average MLBers in Bellinger and Hoerner. But maybe Bellinger's contract is viewed as toxic by MLB teams not the Yankees, Dodgers or Mets.

I agree with needing a top of the rotation righty. Brown might turn out to be that guy but adding a “ the guy” could give us a rotation that matches well with anyone

 

[CYdTracked]

I wouldn't hate this trade but I'm always a little leery of trading for prospects coming off disappointing years. If you can get a top 100 prospect for Bellinger, do it. If you can get a top 50 guy if you pay most of Bellinger's deal, then do it.

Ford is #49 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list. He's only 21 too, I'd probably take this trade but like any other speculation it probably will not happen.

 

[BigJCy]

Most of the replies to this think the Cubs are getting the better end of this deal:

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I take that deal in an absolute heartbeat which is why the Jays won't.

 

[isucy86]

I agree with needing a top of the rotation righty. Brown might turn out to be that guy but adding a “ the guy” could give us a rotation that matches well with anyone

It would not surprise me if a healthy Brown doesn't push Assad for a spot in the rotation in 2025. IMO there questions about Assad after his 2024 season where he:

• Averaged 5 innings a start
• Opposing hitters batted .254 with an OBP
• Gave up 20 HR's.
• His ERA was a full point higher in the 2nd half of the season 4.38 vs 3.27.

Brown definitely has the power arm that could turn into a top of rotation starter in a few years.

 

[Rabbuk]

I take that deal in an absolute heartbeat which is why the Jays won't.

Same

 

[isucy86]

I take that deal in an absolute heartbeat which is why the Jays won't.

A lot depends on Cade Horton's arm health. If Bluejays have no concerns getting a potential top-of-rotation arm on the cheap isn't a bad thing.

That would be a no-brainer trade for the Cubs- get a Taillon caliber arm in Gausman and a guy who can just hit!

 

[Cyforce]

It would not surprise me if a healthy Brown doesn't push Assad for a spot in the rotation in 2025. IMO there questions about Assad after his 2024 season where he:

• Averaged 5 innings a start
• Opposing hitters batted .254 with an OBP
• Gave up 20 HR's.
• His ERA was a full point higher in the 2nd half of the season 4.38 vs 3.27.

Brown definitely has the power arm that could turn into a top of rotation starter in a few years.

Yes, I think Assad is better as the long relief guy.

 

[RoseClone]

He's kind of a dork himself but Ken Rosenthal's Dork of the Week is Cub's ownership

 

[cycloneman003]

Matthew Boyd to the Cubs on a 2-year $29mil deal. Another lefty starter. Pretty sizable commitment to a guy who was a sometimes decent starter for the Tigers, had Tommy John and was electric with the Guardians last year in only 8 starts.

 

[CYdTracked]

Curious to see what the upper end starters are going to get if this is the price for this tier. Is Boyd really a better option that someone we already have in-house that costs much less? Looking over his career he hasn't had a season that he pitched over 100 innings since 2019 with Detroit when he started 32 games going 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA. Hopefully they see something in him that other teams aren't as he's now the 3rd lefty in the rotation and a career 46-69 4.85 ERA guy that has had arm issues just seems like if you are gonna spend that kind of money you'd want a RHP that has stayed healthy and can eat some innings in the back half of the rotation.

Not expecting another signing for the rotation now which means that Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and Wicks likely will compete for that 5th spot in the rotation if none of them are included in a trade at some point. This is your typical Cubs signing that doesn't surprise me, basically another damaged goods player hoping that he stays healthy and can be a reclamation project that pays off. Jed sure loves those types of guys for some reason.

 

[cycloneman003]

Curious to see what the upper end starters are going to get if this is the price for this tier. Is Boyd really a better option that someone we already have in-house that costs much less? Looking over his career he hasn't had a season that he pitched over 100 innings since 2019 with Detroit when he started 32 games going 9-12 with a 4.56 ERA. Hopefully they see something in him that other teams aren't as he's now the 3rd lefty in the rotation and a career 46-69 4.85 ERA guy that has had arm issues just seems like if you are gonna spend that kind of money you'd want a RHP that has stayed healthy and can eat some innings in the back half of the rotation.

Not expecting another signing for the rotation now which means that Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and Wicks likely will compete for that 5th spot in the rotation if none of them are included in a trade at some point. This is your typical Cubs signing that doesn't surprise me, basically another damaged goods player hoping that he stays healthy and can be a reclamation project that pays off. Jed sure loves those types of guys for some reason.

Clearly they saw something, and other teams did too, to get that type of a deal. He pitched very differently post TJ than he did earlier in his career and was really good in small sample, so it's a big bet that that'll continue.

 

[ISUCubswin]

The Boyd move can be REALLY good if he is not the primary SP we’re looking to make our team better. Slot him into the 5 while trading for a SP2/3, I like the deal. Slot him into a swing man while trading for a SP2/3 AND getting Sasaki, I LOVE it.

It can also be really bad if he just becomes Smyly 2.0.