Williams & Blum: The Florida State / Clemson conversation

[SolterraCyclone]

I’ll make the case for Virginia Tech (from a P2 vantage point). I think a lot of people are underselling Virginia Tech. I think they are a rung below UNC and FSU. They are behind Clemson too but only because of the past decade (prior to that I’d say they were even). From a pure football brand and fan following perspective, they’re more valuable than UVa and any other ACC team imo. So I’d put them #4 in the pecking order.

I think the B10 values UVa more because it is the flagship university in a more populated area of the state, has a lot of history (founded by Thomas Jefferson), is an academic powerhouse, and has a good (not great) athletic department. Certainly not a football brand by any stretch though.

The SEC, however, I have no idea why they’d value UVa over Tech given what they prioritize. Better football brand, better fan following, bigger stadium, probably better TV ratings, southern roots (located in southern part of the state), still gets a foothold in Virginia (for recruiting and eyeballs), still good academically. Virginia Tech had a bad coaching hire when Beamer retired that sent them into mediocrity, but they have the resources to be nationally relevant again with the right coach.

 

[Cy4All]

VT is on a clear #2 tier with NC State and Miami (and Miami badly needs a new on campus FB stadium).

Louisville and Pitt noticeably lag behind those 3 and I would have both Duke and GTech ahead of those two.

I don't understand the draw of Georgia Tech. Admittedly because I know nothing about GT. Anyone care to sell me on GT?

 

[Cyclonsin]

I don't understand the draw of Georgia Tech. Admittedly because I know nothing about GT. Anyone care to sell me on GT?

GT is only valuable if your conference cares about academics and is desperate to get into the region. Nobody in Atlanta, let alone the rest of GA, could care less about them. They absolutely should not be on the XII's radar.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

I don't understand the draw of Georgia Tech. Admittedly because I know nothing about GT. Anyone care to sell me on GT?

I’ll sell you against them .

Most conferences didn’t want Stanford. Georgia Tech is less prestigious academically, in a less populated area, with a much worse athletic department, and a less passionate fan base than Stanford.

 

[SCNCY]

I’ll sell you against them .

Most conferences didn’t want Stanford. Georgia Tech is less prestigious academically, in a less populated area, with a much worse athletic department, and a less passionate fan base than Stanford.

Georgia Tech is located in Atlanta, just a little north of the downtown.

 

[cykadelic2]

I don't understand the draw of Georgia Tech. Admittedly because I know nothing about GT. Anyone care to sell me on GT?

With the right HC, GT FB can be a ACC or B12 title contender given the immense recruiting pool in the state of Georgia. A big reason why UGA is now a national power is due to that recruiting base and the recent ineptitude of GT (and their recruiting obstacles with the Flexbone when Johnson was there). GT's location in Atlanta and their academics are also draws for the B12. I'd rather have them than Louisville and Pitt but they definitely aren't as attractive as FSU, Clemson, VT and NCSt.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Georgia Tech is located in Atlanta, just a little north of the downtown.

Yes. But the Atlanta metro is 6.6M people. The Bay Area, where Stanford is, is 7.7M people

 

[Cyclonsin]

With the right HC, GT FB can be a ACC or B12 title contender given the immense recruiting pool in the state of Georgia. A big reason why UGA is now a national power is due to that recruiting base and the recent ineptitude of GT (and their recruiting obstacles with the Flexbone when Johnson was there). GT's location in Atlanta and their academics are also draws for the B12. I'd rather have them than Louisville and Pitt but they definitely aren't as attractive as FSU, Clemson, VT and NCSt.

Just look at Georgia's 2024 class: GT only has 2 of the top-70 recruits (#21 & #40).

They aren't going to capture that recruiting hotbed ever again. It's gone. They aren't just miles behind UGA, they're miles behind every other P4 school within two states. Hell, UCF is drastically out recruiting them in Georgia recruiting. Not to mention schools from outside the region poaching top talent, which is happening more regularly across the country as recruiting becomes less regional.

And, just for comparison, while the 2025 class isn't all committed yet they only have 1 of the top 30 (#14) and none of the uncommitted guys are trending towards them.

 

[cykadelic2]

Just look at Georgia's 2024 class: GT only has 2 of the top-70 recruits (#21 & #40).

They aren't going to capture that recruiting hotbed ever again. It's gone. They aren't just miles behind UGA, they're miles behind every other P4 school within two states. Hell, UCF is drastically out recruiting them in Georgia recruiting. Not to mention schools from outside the region poaching top talent, which is happening more regularly across the country as recruiting becomes less regional.

And, just for comparison, while the 2025 class isn't all committed yet they only have 1 of the top 30 (#14) and none of the uncommitted guys are trending towards them.

You obviously missed the part with the right HC. And your valuation of ACC schools is highly flawed if your valuation is based solely on the current state of the program which you and others appear to be guilty of. And to imply that GT’s in—state recruiting pull is permanently gone is also a highly flawed hot take.

 

[MugNight]

I don't understand the draw of Georgia Tech. Admittedly because I know nothing about GT. Anyone care to sell me on GT?

I’ll pile on with others. GT is located in Atlanta, so that’s a plus for away games and fun. But their academic requirements hurt them in sports. They don’t offer the same catalog of liberal arts degrees as other schools, and I think everyone there is required to take calculus, even the football players. It’s baked into the culture there that classes are challenging.

As far as HS players in GA that want to stay in-state, there are also D1 programs at Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Kennesaw State. All have much less academic rigor than GT.

GT is a solid engineering school, but the kids that go there tend to be more focused on their schooling than the sporting events. They have very good baseball and used to have good hoops.

GT to the XII would be like the Rutgers add to the B1G a decade ago: a D1 team with some flashes of football success that would yield big carrier fees from cable networks. That is no longer relevant today.

Atlanta is squarely UGA territory. And I’d even put Auburn and probably Clemson as #2 and #3 most popular college programs in the Atlanta metro. Like B1G fans in Chicago, there are a ton of post grads from neighboring states that flock there for work and bring their fandom along.

Lastly, one thing I appreciate about GT is that if you see someone wearing Yellowjackets gear it probably means they truly have a connection to the school. It’s a lot like ISU was pre-Campbell/pre-Hoiberg.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You obviously missed the part with the right HC. And your valuation of ACC schools is highly flawed if your valuation is based solely on the current state of the program which you and others appear to be guilty of.

You don’t need the “right” HC you need the perfect one. Someone that can greatly improve recruiting, use the portal, develop players, and run a great system. You then also need that guy to actually stay around once he makes GT decent (look at Elko at Duke) and someone who can recruit guys that can get past admissions.

That is an insane task to ask someone do do let alone deliver on. A couple decades ago that job is a lot easier which is probably why their team was way better then.

 

[Cyclonsin]

You don’t need the “right” HC you need the perfect one. Someone that can greatly improve recruiting, use the portal, develop players, and run a great system. You then also need that guy to actually stay around once he makes GT decent (look at Elko at Duke) and someone who can recruit guys that can get past admissions.

That is an insane task to ask someone do do let alone deliver on. A couple decades ago that job is a lot easier which is probably why their team was way better then.

And even then, how long will that success need to be sustained for interest to become valuable to networks? There is virtually no fan support for them currently, and we aren't that far removed from Johnson's tenure.

 

[CascadeClone]

VT is on a clear #2 tier with NC State and Miami (and Miami badly needs a new on campus FB stadium).

Louisville and Pitt noticeably lag behind those 3 and I would have both Duke and GTech ahead of those two.

LVille isn't that far behind, if at all.
Pitt is weird - they are bigger and better in a lot of ways, but just don't have great fan support really.
Duke is good for the whole Big12 owns bball strategy, but otherwise just okay.

GT is not ahead of any of those in any way. They are like Pitt but even moreso - bigger and better but also worser. I don't see how they are in any conversation for the Big12 unless they are going to a 24 team conference.


A lot of this depends on what's left for the Big12 to pick. If the P2 take 6 teams and ND stays independent, then you are choosing from #8-11. If the B1G takes ND and UNC and SEC stays put, then you start a LOT higher up the food chain...

Here's how I would rank them, from the Big12's point of view. I think it's pretty close, but obviously arguable at the margins.

 

[cyfan92]

Unless FSU and Clemson are coming as equal rev sharing partners, I would pass...

We are 16 united schools right now and giving that up after what UT/OU put us through is short-sided IMO.

Also, if we get any bigger, we really need to consider a pod system.

 

[cykadelic2]

I’ll pile on with others. GT is located in Atlanta, so that’s a plus for away games and fun. But their academic requirements hurt them in sports. They don’t offer the same catalog of liberal arts degrees as other schools, and I think everyone there is required to take calculus, even the football players. It’s baked into the culture there that classes are challenging.

As far as HS players in GA that want to stay in-state, there are also D1 programs at Georgia State, Georgia Southern, and Kennesaw State. All have much less academic rigor than GT.

GT is a solid engineering school, but the kids that go there tend to be more focused on their schooling than the sporting events. They have very good baseball and used to have good hoops.

GT to the XII would be like the Rutgers add to the B1G a decade ago: a D1 team with some flashes of football success that would yield big carrier fees from cable networks. That is no longer relevant today.

Atlanta is squarely UGA territory. And I’d even put Auburn and probably Clemson as #2 and #3 most popular college programs in the Atlanta metro. Like B1G fans in Chicago, there are a ton of post grads from neighboring states that flock there for work and bring their fandom along.

Lastly, one thing I appreciate about GT is that if you see someone wearing Yellowjackets gear it probably means they truly have a connection to the school. It’s a lot like ISU was pre-Campbell/pre-Hoiberg.

To be clear, the GT comparison is primarily with Louisville, Pitt and Duke as Tier 3 behind FSU, Clemson, VT, NCSt and Miami (assuming UNC and UVa are off the table).

Louisville is another commuter school with a recent history of academic and athletic dysfunction. UCF and Houston were mistakes to expand with, Louisville would be another. Pitt home games at Heinz have always been a sea of empty yellow seats regardless of how good they are. Have never understood the appeal with them. And Duke’s overall academic and athletic profile obviously makes them appealing even more so if BB media deals end up being contracted separately.

 

[cyclone1209]

Unless FSU and Clemson are coming as equal rev sharing partners, I would pass...

We are 16 united schools right now and giving that up after what UT/OU put us through is short-sided IMO.

Also, if we get any bigger, we really need to consider a pod system.

I like the league where it is now. We have solidified ourselves as "the third league", and I am cool with that.

Getting bigger doesn't always mean better too - case in point all the crap the Big Ten added ten years ago. (Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska)

 

[MugNight]

To be clear, the GT comparison is primarily with Louisville, Pitt and Duke as Tier 3 behind FSU, Clemson, VT, NCSt and Miami (assuming UNC and UVa are off the table).

Louisville is another commuter school with a recent history of academic and athletic dysfunction. UCF and Houston were mistakes to expand with, Louisville would be another. Pitt home games at Heinz have always been a sea of empty yellow seats regardless of how good they are. Have never understood the appeal with them. And Duke’s overall academic and athletic profile obviously makes them appealing even more so if BB media deals end up being contracted separately.

Thats fair. I think Louisville and Pitt are holdovers from a time when it was “who could we get?” There’s natural rivalry there with Cincy and WVU. Basketball fans who care, okay enough football, etc.

I agree we should aim higher. If we only take 2, I’d pick NCST and VT.

The real question is: if Clemson and FSU leave, is the remaining ACC still an existential threat to the XII? If so, what’s the tipping point where it’s not?

 

[cyfan92]

I like the league where it is now. We have solidified ourselves as "the third league", and I am cool with that.

Getting bigger doesn't always mean better too - case in point all the crap the Big Ten added ten years ago. (Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska)

99.9% chance by the next TV contract, Ohio St and Michigan are going to start asking for larger % than Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern... Schools like Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan St need to win in football and MBB over the coming years or they'll get lumped into the lower payout bucket..

 

[FriendlySpartan]

99.9% chance by the next TV contract, Ohio St and Michigan are going to start asking for larger % than Purdue, Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern... Schools like Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan St need to win in football and MBB over the coming years or they'll get lumped into the lower payout bucket..

This has never even been floated as an idea. We saw how uneven distribution worked out, why would anyone walk down that path? I can’t speak for OSU but Michigan wouldn’t bring it up and if OSU did they would oppose it out of spite

 

[cyfan92]

This has never even been floated as an idea. We saw how uneven distribution worked out, why would anyone walk down that path? I can’t speak for OSU but Michigan wouldn’t bring it up and if OSU did they would oppose it out of spite

You must be new here.. Welcome to college football in 2024 where everything is a race for more $$$.

Also keep in mind that Oregon and Washington are on heavily reduced payments right now. That will end once the current media rights deal is up.. OSU, UM, and Penn St are not going to be happy if a 16-team SEC starts to out-earn them in 2030 and beyond (Only 5-years away).

College's Seismic Shift: Oregon, Washington outline reasons for joining Big Ten

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