Please close this thread and do not start one next years. Its very clear the metrics do not matter.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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- bracketology cyclones net quad rankings
Sorry for being late with these. I had one of the worst colds of my life this weekend.
lowa State has a 8% chance to win the NCAA Tournament.
That makes them one of the favorites!
Must .. not... hype... self.. up...
That makes them one of the favorites!
Must .. not... hype... self.. up...
So can anyone compare the performance on Saturday to the rest of the games played this year by every team? I don’t know if there is a single "performance" metric per game like that. I would guess that had to be one of the best performances by any team this year. Hell of a way to head into the tournament.
Hope you are getting better buddy!
I must not hype.
Hype is the mind-killer.
Hype is the little death that brings inflated expectations.
I will face the hype.
I will allow it to pass over me and through me.
When the hype has passed I will turn a critical eye to see its path.
There may be nothing. Only good games remain.
Not really but soldiering on here.
Kicking Houston's teeth in made me feel slightly better.
One way of looking at that would be Barttorvik's game score which was mentioned a bit earlier. There have been 5 game scores of 100 this season, and Iowa State actually has 2 of them (Saturday's game and the Grambling State game).
The others are...
- Arizona over Colorado (97-50)
- Houston over Louisiana-Monroe (84-31)
- Purdue over Samford (98-45)
Oh boy, I better review my Samford over KU pick...
So, Iowa State's two 100 rated games are both against tourney teams . . . . . I like that trend.
I really like your modified “Litany Against Fear”. Frank Herbert was an incredible writer and philosopher. Sorry to be off topic.I must not hype.
Hype is the mind-killer.
Hype is the little death that brings inflated expectations.
I will face the hype.
I will allow it to pass over me and through me.
When the hype has passed I will turn a critical eye to see its path.
There may be nothing. Only good games remain.
Not really but soldiering on here.
Kicking Houston's teeth in made me feel slightly better.
Muad’Dib is never off topic.
I believe that we have a 50% chance of winning it all. We either do or we don't. I'm going with the better of the two 50s.
Doing some compound probability math, if we win tomorrow and the best remaining opponents all move forward, those percentages will go to
Elite 8 - 63.7%
Final 4 - 25.1%
Championship - 13.7%
Winner - 6.9%
If any big upsets happen today, there will be small adjustments to the latter rows in our table
Essentially a 63.7% likelihood of beating ILL
Followed by a 39.4% likelihood of beating UCONN
That math sounds about right. UConn is very much the final boss of this regional bracket.
Torvik has the Washington St. game at 68-60 for Iowa State right now (78% win expectation).
Illinois doesn't frighten me, but UConn terrifies me. They're really good and peaking right now.
I’m scared of matching up with UCONN also, but don’t completely discount Auburn’s chances against them. Auburn is a solid team.
