How dangerous is UCF?

[1TwistedCyclone]

When UCF is on, they're not bad at home. A lot better than expected for their first year in the Big 12.

However, I like this late season away game down in Orlando. First time for the Cyclones travelling there, so this unfamiliar road trip is excellent preparation for the tournament, and the likelihood we get placed in a very unfamiliar location.

 

[madguy30]

I'll take a loss tomorrow as a trade for winning the last two games any day all day.

 

[jctisu]

They are pretty good. NIT level team who plays tough at home and can upset good teams. I think they also beat Texas on the road.

That said… I like our chances. They have not faced our relentless defense yet. I’m hoping for a close spread to come out so I can hammer ISU. I think we win by 7-10 points.

They played at Houston already so they’ve seen our type of defense.

 

[jctisu]

I've haven't watched them much so I'm just going off numbers here.

Their overall offensive metrics are pretty low. Defensive metrics are pretty good but teams get to the line a lot against them (so they foul a lot). That, combined with their record, I'm guessing their bench is pretty thin. They're a poor shooting team, overall and on three-pointers specifically, and they turn the ball over a lot.

Sounds like a recipe for a Cyclone blowout to me. They've got some size/length/athletes in the front court though, could give us problems. They block a lot of shots, 14th in the country and 1st in the Big 12.

I would ask what your version of a blowout is. If it’s double digits then maybe, but even then I would be shocked to beat them at their place by 10+. If a blowout is 15 or more that would be insanely shocking imo.

 

[FerShizzle]

Even with wins, we've been struggling some since Houston.
I just hope we can keep the dinged up guys healthy.

Getting big games from 2 of the 4 of King, Jones, Ward, or CuJo would go a long ways in easing the pressure off Lipsey and Gilbert.

 

[bosco]

I did a quick look at the box scores in the games that they won. Things that I noted is they usually out rebounded, had less TO's, made more FT and made pretty good % of their shots (no duh).

But they didn't usually do them exceedingly better then the opposition. It feels like it's culmination of doing all of these solidly that allows them to win.

They aren't going to let us asleep walk through this game. We are going to have take the win.

 

[nrg4isu]

I read the title of this thread 3 times before i realized we're talking about central Florida. What does the UFC have to do with basketball other than how ISU and Houston play defense? Lol

 

[CoachHines3]

I'll take a loss tomorrow as a trade for winning the last two games any day all day.

currently all 3 games are Q1 opportunities so wouldn't really be any "bad" losses

K-State is currently 75 in NET which is cutoff for Q1/Q2 away games. So that could be a Q2 game.

 

[Cyburbbalz]

I know we're all thinking Big 12 champs / 2-seed / Final Four now but I'd be pretty happy with a 1-2 finish here. I remember looking at our Big 12 schedule pre-season and thinking we could be pretty good and still finish like 6-12!

Boo

 

[hoosman]

Remember the first half of the last OU game? They block a lot of shots. We can't have Lipsey and Gilbert dribble into the low post for pull ups or layups. They will not score down there. Best to try 3 pointers, pick and roll, or fast break scoring. This would be the perfect game for MM to get his shooting back. I feel that ISU will struggle until the last 8 minutes of the game, then UCF will be worn down physically and will have foul problems. DRE and Tre will need to watch their fouls.

 

[coolerifyoudid]

I hope we attack them in the paint early and get them on their heels and possibly in foul trouble. I don't want to trade them fouls, but we are far better off if this does become a bench game.

They don't use their bigs to facilitate their offense away from the basket, so that takes an offensive dimension away from them that tends to give us troubles.

Contain Darius Johnson and we should be able to keep them around 50. Pav and Keshon are going to have to time their drives in the paint judiciously because that is where UCF is strongest. Also, I predict that I will yell "can someone please box out Diallo" at some point during the game.

 

[NATEizKING]

Alternate line Clones -30

 

[bawbie]

A less skilled but perhaps more athletic Cincy is a good comp, at least from my limited viewings of both teams this year.

Probably a good comparison - but a more drastic offense/defense split

in KenPom:
Cincy is 87 AdjO / 24 AdjD
UCF is 167 AdjO / 12 AdjD

They are obviously a defense-first team that generates offense from steals (much like us). They are also a pretty good rebounding team. They struggle with offense, especially shooting percentage (much as we have the last 3 games). They don't shoot the 3 very often or at a high percentage - but their lead guards (Sellers and Johnson) take 5-6 per game and shoot at 37%. Then they have 5 other guys who play and take 1-2 a game and are shooting < 30%. Of course any of them can get hot and that's the biggest risk in this game

I expect that our offense will struggle again, but if we can make some threes and stop them from going crazy from three, we should be in a position to win.

They have really struggled against some of the better defenses, including making only 7 FGs against Houston, but those were on the road. in their last 5 home games they've scored 69 or more in each game, winning 3 of them (Tech, OU and WVU).

Their season high in turnovers is 18, so that's something for us to shoot for, and they've had fewer made FGs than turnovers twice (we've done that to opponents 4 times)

But to answer the question in the OP - yes, they are dangerous. They have two good scoring guards, lots of long, athletic (albeit not offensively talented) bigs and have a good defensive mindset and a quality coach. As they showed against Kansas, they can definitely beat anyone on any given night, especially at home

 

[CloneIce]

I'll take a loss tomorrow as a trade for winning the last two games any day all day.

Yeah that isn’t how it works. Lets just win them all.

 

[CloneIce]

I know we're all thinking Big 12 champs / 2-seed / Final Four now but I'd be pretty happy with a 1-2 finish here. I remember looking at our Big 12 schedule pre-season and thinking we could be pretty good and still finish like 6-12!

Why? We are 11-4. We’ve performed at a higher level than that all Big 12 season. No reason to be happy with the team having a slump and going into the postseason playing their worst ball since conference play began.

 

[madguy30]

Yeah that isn’t how it works. Lets just win them all.

That can work for me any old way I prefer it if given a choice of a loss over the next 8 days for a team I don't play on.

1-2 wouldn't surprise me, 2-1 would be really good and a loss tomorrow imo is better than at Hilton or Manhatten.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I hope we attack them in the paint early and get them on their heels and possibly in foul trouble. I don't want to trade them fouls, but we are far better off if this does become a bench game.

They don't use their bigs to facilitate their offense away from the basket, so that takes an offensive dimension away from them that tends to give us troubles.

Contain Darius Johnson and we should be able to keep them around 50. Pav and Keshon are going to have to time their drives in the paint judiciously because that is where UCF is strongest. Also, I predict that I will yell "can someone please box out Diallo" at some point during the game.

Pav will be lucky to play more than 5 minutes in this game, so I am not sure that his name bears significance here. Tamin and Keshon is perhaps who you meant.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

That can work for me any old way I prefer it if given a choice of a loss over the next 8 days for a team I don't play on.

1-2 wouldn't surprise me, 2-1 would be really good and a loss tomorrow imo is better than at Hilton or Manhatten.

I agree. If given the choice winning @ UCF or @ K-State, I want that K-State game more. They could be Q2 by the time we play, and a win against us would help their tourney resume immensely. I'd rather deal them a death blow, because frankly, F*** Jerome Tang and F*** the purple kitties.

 

[CoachHines3]

I know we're all thinking Big 12 champs / 2-seed / Final Four now but I'd be pretty happy with a 1-2 finish here. I remember looking at our Big 12 schedule pre-season and thinking we could be pretty good and still finish like 6-12!

1-2 would be disappointing considering the season and the last 5 games being somewhat "easy"

but 1-2 wouldn't be the end of the world. There isn't a "bad" loss out there

 

[chuckd4735]

I know we're all thinking Big 12 champs / 2-seed / Final Four now but I'd be pretty happy with a 1-2 finish here. I remember looking at our Big 12 schedule pre-season and thinking we could be pretty good and still finish like 6-12!