This game is going to be won or lost at the free throw line. Just looked at the couple “close” games Houston has had this year and noticed a lot of points left at the stripe. This worries me, but I just looked up our FT % for the year and its higher than I anticipated - just under 70%.
On the other hand, Houston is hitting on about 67% and opponents 63%. If we shoot well from the line that could swing the game.
I don't think it's likely to happen with this team, but probably the biggest area of concern is the amount of times we opt for a sloppy double, only for it to directly lead to an open basket (first pass...open player from the man that doubled) or indirectly a few passes later (slow rotations). Making it even more frustrating is these have often come in stretches of good man defense where the double was completely unecessary. Without having stats to back this up it feels like we easily yield 6-10 points on such situations. While other teams can do this (at times) as well, the amount we do this looks and feels excessive.
We also give up a lot of bad rebounds in situations where we either had (clear) position or had major ratio advantage around the ball. In particular Milan is one of the worst rebounders I've ever seen as he routinely watches the ball while failing to block out or secure the rebound.
Ward needs to keep himself on the floor (stay out of foul trouble) as we look and feel like a completely different team when he plays. He's electric on the defensive end and one of the few players we have who never stops moving.