2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Yeah, it's weak.Torvik ranks the nonconference opponents like this (check out the column with 311 for UW-GV) --
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They're all bad. Just terrible. I thought we were going to try and upgrade our usual cupcakes to somebody more competitive (e.g., a MAC or a Sun Belt programs, ones with some players who could play at the P6 level, not these slappies that look like they might as well be a Division II team at this point). Maybe they wanted this season to start off easy or Iowa State simply can't afford to pay those mid-tier teams to come to Hilton for the RPI boost, but there's nothing challenging on this schedule outside of three in Orlando, DePaul, and Iowa.
Then the Big 12 schedule starts and rubs our face in the mud.
I guess if you aren't able to grab opponents that are dependably 100-150 NET range, maybe going low-end is a "might as well" as far as tournament profile. Quad 4 home games are 161 to 363, so you don't get any more "credit" for beating teams in the 160s than you do for 300 and below. Perhaps that's the logic.
I think one of the general problems with the current system in college basketball is it's a greater benefit to your analytical profile to beat Green Bay (#306) and Lindenwood (#336) by 40 than it is to beat Missouri State (#132) by 10. Before the Eastern Illinois meltdown, Iowa had benefited from this principle in the computers. In TJ's first year, we really hurt ourselves with some relatively close wins against Kennesaw St (11), Alabama St (8), and Jackson St (10).
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I'm fine with it. This team needs a bit of time to hit its stride and gel. We'll obviously need to get some quality wins in the Big 12 with that non-con, but I think they'll get their share.Torvik ranks the nonconference opponents like this (check out the column with 311 for UW-GV) --
View attachment 118942
They're all bad. Just terrible. I thought we were going to try and upgrade our usual cupcakes to somebody more competitive (e.g., a MAC or a Sun Belt programs, ones with some players who could play at the P6 level, not these slappies that look like they might as well be a Division II team at this point). Maybe they wanted this season to start off easy or Iowa State simply can't afford to pay those mid-tier teams to come to Hilton for the RPI boost, but there's nothing challenging on this schedule outside of three in Orlando, DePaul, and Iowa.
Then the Big 12 schedule starts and rubs our face in the mud.
Y'all must have failed Stats 101.
There is a 50/50 chance we beat Lindenwood.
There is a 50/50 chance we make the tournament.
Man, this should be easy guys.
And no - just because it says "Lind" & "wood" does not mean anything.
There is a 50/50 chance we beat Lindenwood.
There is a 50/50 chance we make the tournament.
Man, this should be easy guys.
And no - just because it says "Lind" & "wood" does not mean anything.
I think things just moved too fast in realignment to figure it out for this year. The conference will be down this year, but then AZ comes in and we will probably hold our own as a league. Going forward I would bet it will look different depending on what pre-con tournaments we get in to. We seem to be fairly attractive in that regard.
How far down will it be? UCF is an obvious dreg that we've lacked in recent years, but I feel aside from them, teams 1-13 will have potential to play into the month of March in some form or another.
A couple decent teams on there would be nice. Playing 8 games against really bad competition is going to get a little boring. I get it for 3-4 games but man that's a brutally boring schedule.Torvik ranks the nonconference opponents like this (check out the column with 311 for UW-GV) --
View attachment 118942
They're all bad. Just terrible. I thought we were going to try and upgrade our usual cupcakes to somebody more competitive (e.g., a MAC or a Sun Belt programs, ones with some players who could play at the P6 level, not these slappies that look like they might as well be a Division II team at this point). Maybe they wanted this season to start off easy or Iowa State simply can't afford to pay those mid-tier teams to come to Hilton for the RPI boost, but there's nothing challenging on this schedule outside of three in Orlando, DePaul, and Iowa.
Then the Big 12 schedule starts and rubs our face in the mud.
This is a great point. If you aren't getting quad 1 wins then absolutely demolishing really bad competition seems to really boost your profile. So it's better to play that than a team that is meh to bad but might have enough to keep it close or play well and beat you.
Are they ever better? None of those teams are very interesting we might as well make them fun instead of close.
I like the schedule this way. Quad 4 to boost confidence, tryout different lineups, tournaments and Iowa for legit games. Our Big12 conference schedule is such a beast that there’s no way our SoS is gonna be an issue.
There’s no reason to intentionally try for a top 25 sos which is what a big 12 schedule easily is with any kind of non conf difficulty.
Maybe Kansas is the only program where it makes sense to pile an elite non conf schedule on top of the best conf schedule. Perhaps Baylor a few of those years but not all of them.
Arizona has a legit non conf schedule but their Pac sos will likely be lower than big 12.
Duke
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue
Alabama
FAU
My goodness. They’ve got a “kick me” sign on their back with a schedule like that.
That being said, doesn’t that look fun? I know we have plenty of good games in the Big 12 but I’d love to play a longer conference schedule or more OOC against P6 peers like that. I’d gladly want to see 22 conference games (not just 20) and a home-and-home with somebody like Creighton or Wisconsin and junk a couple of these silly cupcake games.
Fewer wins, sure, but the committee is much better about recognizing the quality of wins rather than the raw number nowadays.
We could still end up the top conference imo, but the days of being WAY above everyone else and globally undisputed pretty much every year is going to go away.
Torvik ranks the nonconference opponents like this (check out the column with 311 for UW-GV) --
View attachment 118942
They're all bad. Just terrible. I thought we were going to try and upgrade our usual cupcakes to somebody more competitive (e.g., a MAC or a Sun Belt programs, ones with some players who could play at the P6 level, not these slappies that look like they might as well be a Division II team at this point). Maybe they wanted this season to start off easy or Iowa State simply can't afford to pay those mid-tier teams to come to Hilton for the RPI boost, but there's nothing challenging on this schedule outside of three in Orlando, DePaul, and Iowa.
Then the Big 12 schedule starts and rubs our face in the mud.
Look at Michigan State losing to preseason 136 in Kenpom James Madison or Oklahoma State catching a loss to 169-ranked Abilene Christian last night. There is no benefit in scheduling those teams vs. Green Bay or Lindenwood or Grambling in the non-conference. You get ZERO credit for beating those teams ranked 100-200; the committee does not care about Q3 or Q4 wins, but if you do lose to them, congrats, you've got a Q3 or Q4 loss on your resume.
As long as the Big 12 stays very good to great in basketball, your non-conference is about getting into a holiday tourney where you get 2-3 good games, playing Iowa, playing 1-2 other major conference opponents, and then NOT LOSING. We're going to get anywhere from 10-12 Q1 games in conference play with the rest being Q2. That's enough for the resume.
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I get what you are saying, but that's going to be really, really hard on all those little schools that rely on their early season road games to fund their athletic programs.
Globally undisputed makes me laugh. I feel like most Iowa fans I encounter refuse to acknowledge the Big 12 being the best as fact.
If you shrank DI to the FBS the Big East, MW, A10, Valley and WCC you'd improve the product instantly and make the regular season actually mean something.
