2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[cyfan92]

My birdies think the backcourt will be shooting 35%-36% from 3 this year (75th-125th based on last season) versus 33% last season (215th). 37% plus would have been top 25 in 2022/23.

When hot, we will score with most teams in the country and if we can keep the defensive pressure high, watch out.

 

[CloniesForLife]

My birdies think the backcourt will be shooting 35%-36% from 3 this year (75th-125th based on last season) versus 33% last season (215th). 37% plus would have been top 25 in 2022/23.

When hot, we will score with most teams in the country and if we can keep the defensive pressure high, watch out.

That has other huge effects on the offense opening up driving lanes for Tamin and others to finish at the rim or drop it off to the big guys for easy buckets

 

[cyfan92]

I want to see this lineup next week.

Pav
Gilbert
Jones
Momcilovic
King

Feels like a Hoiball lineup, then my #2 most wanted lineup is this:

Lipsey
Gilbert
Watson
Biliew
Ward

See if GB can score more than a couple here after getting torched by my #1 lineup

 

[Sigmapolis]

Recording where the Cyclones stand in the preseason projections on the eve of real games...

BarTorvik
#48 in the country
#106 offense, #16 defense
#9 in the Big 12
18-11 (8-10) (missing the second two Orlando games)



KenPom

#31 in the country
#79 offense, #3 defense
#7 in the Big 12

ESPN BPI

#31 in the country
#7 in the Big 12
18.4-10.6 (8.7-9.3) (again missing the second two Orlando games)
2.2% to win the Big 12



Team Rankings

#36 in the country
#9 in the Big 12

 

[Sigmapolis]

Not much changed after last night, but a win is a win...



Up from 39.2% to 45% to make the NCAA tournament, though!

 

[cyclones500]

Not much changed after last night, but a win is a win...

View attachment 118937

Up from 39.2% to 45% to make the NCAA tournament, though!

Love seeing these roundups throughout each season.

100% chance to beat Lindenwood? Seems like good odds to me.

 

[CascadeClone]

Not much changed after last night, but a win is a win...

View attachment 118937

Up from 39.2% to 45% to make the NCAA tournament, though!

Kinda weird to see 28th best team, but <50% chance to make the NCAA.

Feels like these are going to trend upwards... a lot.

 

[NWICY]

Not much changed after last night, but a win is a win...

View attachment 118937

Up from 39.2% to 45% to make the NCAA tournament, though!

Oh my Lindenwood is BAD.

 

[NWICY]

@Sigmapolis where was GB ranked?

 

[Sigmapolis]

@Sigmapolis where was GB ranked?

Team Rankings had UW-Green Bay at #341 (out of a total of 362 in the division).

The four cupcakes before VCU are just awful...

#351 Lindenwood
#260 Idaho St.
#271 Grambling St.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Kinda weird to see 28th best team, but <50% chance to make the NCAA.

Feels like these are going to trend upwards... a lot.

There's a lot unknown right now.

Lots of good teams have a wishy-washy projection like that.

Lotta games to be played to sort this out.

The Cyclones keep winning, though, do well in Orlando, and take care of DePaul and Iowa, and that number should move up quickly. You have to prove you deserve it in the Big 12, though.

 

[CoachHines3]

Via KenPom: Overall 29th.

AdjO bumped up from 80 to 70 after last night.

AdjD dropped from 3 to 4.

19-10 overall 9-9 in Big 12 play. (This didn't change)

 

[ClonesFTW]

After 1 game my initial projection would be we will end up a top 40 offense and top 20 defense by the end of the year.

 

[madguy30]

There's some skills there and it would be very surprising if they're not in the tourney in the end.

 

[cyclones500]

Team Rankings had UW-Green Bay at #341 (out of a total of 362 in the division).

The four cupcakes before VCU are just awful...

#351 Lindenwood
#260 Idaho St.
#271 Grambling St.

Curious - what is current rank of the 4 teams we get in the stretch at end of non-con?

Prairie View A&M
FAMU
Eastern Illinois
New Hampshire

(Those might change by late-December anyway, but probably won't be far from what it is now)

 

[bosco]

Team Rankings had UW-Green Bay at #341 (out of a total of 362 in the division).

The four cupcakes before VCU are just awful...

#351 Lindenwood
#260 Idaho St.
#271 Grambling St.

What, Lindenwood is worse than GB?! I would have thought GB was worse team in Div1.

 

[CoachHines3]

Curious - what is current rank of the 4 teams we get in the stretch at end of non-con?

Prairie View A&M
FAMU
Eastern Illinois
New Hampshire

(Those might change by late-December anyway, but probably won't be far from what it is now)

KenPom has those teams (currently)

Prairie View A&M- 336
FAMU- 343
Eastern Illinois- 340
New Hampshire- 295

I'll also add with VCU's loss to McNeese St last night they dropped from 86 to 107th

 

[CyPunch]

What, Lindenwood is worse than GB?! I would have thought GB was worse team in Div1.

Not even close.

 

[CyPunch]

Curious - what is current rank of the 4 teams we get in the stretch at end of non-con?

Prairie View A&M
FAMU
Eastern Illinois
New Hampshire

(Those might change by late-December anyway, but probably won't be far from what it is now)

Torrvik

Prairie View A&M - #338
FAMU - #304
Eastern Illinois - #306
New Hampshire - #282

Lindenwood on Thursday is #336. Idaho St Sunday is #298.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Curious - what is current rank of the 4 teams we get in the stretch at end of non-con?

Prairie View A&M
FAMU
Eastern Illinois
New Hampshire

(Those might change by late-December anyway, but probably won't be far from what it is now)

Torvik ranks the nonconference opponents like this (check out the column with 311 for UW-GV) --



They're all bad. Just terrible. I thought we were going to try and upgrade our usual cupcakes to somebody more competitive (e.g., a MAC or a Sun Belt programs, ones with some players who could play at the P6 level, not these slappies that look like they might as well be a Division II team at this point). Maybe they wanted this season to start off easy or Iowa State simply can't afford to pay those mid-tier teams to come to Hilton for the RPI boost, but there's nothing challenging on this schedule outside of three in Orlando, DePaul, and Iowa.

Then the Big 12 schedule starts and rubs our face in the mud.