Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[HFCS]

What in the world would cause someone to type such nonsense?

Do you think Michigan/Penn St/Wisc have had significantly more top 10 or top 15 ranked teams in the past decade or past two decades than OK St, Baylor and TCU? They really haven't, it's kind of a wash and those three Big Ten "powers" are a mighty 0-1 in the same CFP those 3 Big 12 schools are 1-1 in. That doesn't even include the TCU team that finished ranked 3rd in spite of getting screwed by the committee.

B10 is a total fraud in basketball and really dominated by one legit power in football (as opposed to SEC that has had several national championship level programs overlapping each other). A ton more cash isn't going to turn the crap bottom half into something they already are not in football. If cash was going to make Indiana awesome at football it already would have.

On the field the Big Ten is much more comparable to the Big 12 even without OU/Texas than it is to the SEC. On the court the Big 12 and Big East have been a level above, then ACC, then Big Ten and Pac.

 

[RustShack]

A 24 team conference is really just two 12 team conferences. With a conference that size you have to do some sort of divisions. Otherwise, the CCG participants will have more to do with schedule than ability. So, is Iowa going to go a decade between games against tOSU?

Personally, I don’t like the idea of going beyond 18. Get 8 division games and 1 cross-over.

Divisions are over lol.

 

[Cmonwhatarewedoinghereman]

Also, planning to go to the game in Provo this year. Will keep eyes and ears open during the game.

Can we all agree when we go to the “new” 4 schools (I will do Cincy this year) that we strut around like pimps so they can be like “whoa, we thought it was a step up to the big 12 but dang these MFers ruined an entire conference before we played one game”.

 

[Cyched]

The website knows

 

[cyIclSoneU]

A 24 team conference is really just two 12 team conferences. With a conference that size you have to do some sort of divisions. Otherwise, the CCG participants will have more to do with schedule than ability. So, is Iowa going to go a decade between games against tOSU?

Personally, I don’t like the idea of going beyond 18. Get 8 division games and 1 cross-over.

The B1G is already doing 3 protected games (some of which are only temporarily protected) and a rotation of 6 of the rest. They can keep that structure when they expand, even to 20. At 20 schools, under that structure you would still play every team at least once every 3 years. The SEC's current structure is worse for this - you play opposite-division teams once every 6 years.

 

[BCClone]

Well, yeah, if they aren't then there's your answer. But if they are willing to pay for those 3 right now, you don't try to 4D chess it.

I just don’t see the huge negative on hitting pause button with them. They aren’t going anywhere. I see more advantages in waiting then grabbing right away.

 

[NWICY]

I just do not see a world in which any media company would pay the B1G to have 24 teams. It's probably difficult to justify paying Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota $90 ******* million anyway.

The B1g becomes the 1st conference to throw out the deadweight goodbye NW,Rutgers.

 

[Clonehomer]

Has anyone gone through and added up just how much Fox and ESPN will need to pay to make these 24 team conferences happen at the current rates?

OR - $35 mil
WA - $35 mil
CU - $31 mil
AZ - $31 mil
ASU - $31 mil
UU - $31 mil
Total - $194 mil

Really makes you wonder about the value of those remaining 4 teams in the PAC if they’re getting offers around $200 mil + incentives. I guess maybe these teams will be more valuable playing road games in the central time zone, but it does seem like there’s a whole lot of money being saved over offering the PAC a contract.

I’m wondering if there’ll be some calls from TV execs tomorrow trying to put a wet blanket on some of these moves.

 

[HFCS]

There is some value to this but I just think a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You have the chance to get quality programs and have 16 schools with FOX/ESPN willing to pay them the same thing, you take it. Don't risk overthinking it and letting something unforeseen change in the future that damages your position.

If you add Utah and Utah keeps being a ranked football program, it looks great and probably seems like a no brainer in hindsight. The other thing is they have real fans...which fits the Big 12 culture way better than Pac culture no matter what those morons have said the past year.

The negative side is what if Utah or both Utah/BYU falter and it's asked "why did B12 go so heavy on small population Utah".

 

[CysRage]

Amen! Why was “conference realignment normal” when it was the Big 12 on the brink of collapse 3 times in the last 15 years but now all of a sudden it’s “bad for the sport”? Cough cough looking at you Stewart Mandel

 

[BCClone]

The website knows

View attachment 115119

You got a threesome tonight?????? My Spanish is weak, what’s it say?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Arizona is effectively in the Pacific time zone until November every year. Adding UA and ASU gives the Big 12 access to the After Dark window for most of the regular season, and even more than that if our Mountain Time Zone schools are willing to do 8:30 PM local kicks.

 

[2speedy1]

Has anyone gone through and added up just how much Fox and ESPN will need to pay to make these 24 team conferences happen at the current rates?

OR - $35 mil
WA - $35 mil
CU - $31 mil
AZ - $31 mil
ASU - $31 mil
UU - $31 mil
Total - $194 mil

Really makes you wonder about the value of those remaining 4 teams in the PAC if they’re getting offers around $200 mil + incentives. I guess maybe these teams will be more valuable playing road games in the central time zone, but it does seem like there’s a whole lot of money being saved over offering the PAC a contract.

I’m wondering if there’ll be some calls from TV execs tomorrow trying to put a wet blanket on some of these moves.

Still cheaper than paying for the PAC separately. PAC was pushing 200M per year, and that was just 20M per team, and not believed to be acceptable. If they wanted the 32 M per year to match the Big 12, would be 320M.

So ESPN and Fox got the best schools they wanted, For less than paying for the total PAC in a separate deal.

 

[Clonehomer]

The B1G is already doing 3 protected games (some of which are only temporarily protected) and a rotation of 6 of the rest. They can keep that structure when they expand, even to 20. At 20 schools, under that structure you would still play every team at least once every 3 years. The SEC's current structure is worse for this - you play opposite-division teams once every 6 years.

So what happens when Nebraska makes the CCG by playing the cupcakes of the conference and tOSU gets left out because they have a protected rival against Michigan? There a just so much variation in quality of teams in CFB, if you’re only playing 9/23 teams in your conference the level schedules will be crazy.

 

[isucy86]

There is some value to this but I just think a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You have the chance to get quality programs and have 16 schools with FOX/ESPN willing to pay them the same thing, you take it. Don't risk overthinking it and letting something unforeseen change in the future that damages your position.

Great point. If Big12 media consultants say a team meets Big12 media rights value threshold, get them NOW.

Feel like most people project we will end up at a P3. Which is ideal for ISU & Big12.

Unforeseen consequence: If the Big12 stops at 14 now, does that leave the door open for a Pac12 & ACC consolidation. The ACC deal is $17M per school from ESPN, but including all media money ACC schools made $38 to $41M in 2021/22. Gotta believe Pac12 schools like Cal, Stanford, ASU and Utah would sign up for that. Adding Pac12 teams could protect ACC if they lose top brands to SEC/Big10.

Also, for Pac12 schools, it's critical to stay in a Power Conference to maintain a CFP path and access to the Power $ (20M/school) vs. Group $ (maybe 5M/school, maybe).

 

[jdoggivjc]

I just don’t see the huge negative on hitting pause button with them. They aren’t going anywhere. I see more advantages in waiting then grabbing right away.

The benefit is putting the PAC X to death - at least in terms of ever competing with the Big 12 ever again. Sure - we can wait for the Big 10 to step in and "save ORWA" to prove a point to ASU and UU... but if they never do?

The PAC 12 could have landed the death blow against us whenever they want, but they were arrogant enough to "not want truckstop schools". Look where they're at 2 years later - on the brink of the abyss at the hands of the truckstop schools. Personally, I'd rather not give the PAC X a reason to unify despite a horrible Apple TV deal.

I'd personally rather be the bad guys the Big 10 wants us to be and kill the PAC X now than to give the PAC X any opportunity to come back and bite us in the ass in a few years. Of course I'd rather be taking ORWA alongside AZ compared to ASUU, but taking ASUU will kill the PAC X just as effectively.

 

[aeroclone]

Has anyone gone through and added up just how much Fox and ESPN will need to pay to make these 24 team conferences happen at the current rates?

OR - $35 mil
WA - $35 mil
CU - $31 mil
AZ - $31 mil
ASU - $31 mil
UU - $31 mil
Total - $194 mil

Really makes you wonder about the value of those remaining 4 teams in the PAC if they’re getting offers around $200 mil + incentives. I guess maybe these teams will be more valuable playing road games in the central time zone, but it does seem like there’s a whole lot of money being saved over offering the PAC a contract.

I’m wondering if there’ll be some calls from TV execs tomorrow trying to put a wet blanket on some of these moves.

So this is why I have a hard time seeing Stanford or Cal in the B1G. The Pac is about to blow up because the schools left after USCLA bolted aren't worth enough to match B12 money. Now the TV networks will end up paying B12 rates for the 4 corners and B1G rates for WAOR, Stanford, and Cal? It would have been cheaper to just pay the Pac 12 enough to hold it together.

Stanford and Cal get demoted with OSU and WSU. Still think it is possible a couple others get left beyond that.

 

[NWICY]

12 months ago. B1G: We want only USC/UCLA f-off WAOR. B12: Join us WAOR full share $31M
today. B1G: Just kidding WAOR - we'll let you in for 1/2 share. B12: Join us WAOR full share $31M (same as B1G offer)

WAOR has no pride or honor. They are total prostitutes if they join B1G.

A ***** for a dollar or $1000 is still a *****. Might as well be a rich one.

 

[BCClone]

The benefit is putting the PAC X to death - at least in terms of ever competing with the Big 12 ever again. Sure - we can wait for the Big 10 to step in and "save ORWA" to prove a point to ASU and UU... but if they never do?

The PAC 12 could have landed the death blow against us whenever they want, but they were arrogant enough to "not want truckstop schools". Look where they're at 2 years later - on the brink of the abyss at the hands of the truckstop schools. Personally, I'd rather not give the PAC X a reason to unify despite a horrible Apple TV deal.

I'd personally rather be the bad guys the Big 10 wants us to be and kill the PAC X now than to give the PAC X any opportunity to come back and bite us in the ass in a few years. Of course I'd rather be taking ORWA alongside AZ compared to ASUU, but taking ASUU will kill the PAC X just as effectively.

If UO and UW stay, the PAC survives most likely, even if we take the four corners. They will back fill to ten and wait out a big ten invite. It may even mean that the other four corners stick around anyhow.

 

[CycloneBamaFan]

I think Dekkers placed a bet on this.