2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

As I have in previous years, I thought I would setup a centralized thread for projections of game outcomes, the final season record, and updated postseason prospects. I'll try to post an update to these projections after every game or at least every week. Details are below but a high-level summary includes --

Team Rankings

#46 team in the country
#8 team in the Big 12
40% chance to make the NCAA tournament

Bart Torvik

#49 team in the country
(#102 offense, #19 defense)
#10 team in the Big 12
11th team "out" of the NCAA tournament

KenPom

#62 team in the country
(#99 offense, #36 defense)
#8 team in the Big 12 (over WVU and KSU)

ESPN BPI

#35 team in the country
#9 in the Big 12 (one spot behind WVU, ahead of KSU)

Jeff Sagarin

#61 team in the country
#9 in the Big 12 (ahead of KSU)

More details for the sites that have them --

Team Rankings



Bart Torvik



KenPom

 

[Cyclonepride]

As I have in previous years, I thought I would setup a centralized thread for projections of game outcomes, the final season record, and postseason prospects. I'll try to post an update to these projections after every game or at least every week. Details are below but a high-level summary includes --

Team Rankings

#46 team in the country
#8 team in the Big 12
40% chance to make the NCAA tournament

Bart Torvik

#49 team in the country
(#102 offense, #19 defense)
#10 team in the Big 12
11th team "out" of the NCAA tournament

KenPom

#62 team in the country
(#99 offense, #36 defense)
#8 team in the Big 12 (over WVU and KSU)

ESPN BPI

#35 team in the country
#10 in the Big 12 (one spot behind WVU)

Jeff Sagarin

#61 team in the country
#9 in the Big 12 (ahead of KSU)

More details for the sites that have them --

Team Rankings

View attachment 105091

Bart Torvik

View attachment 105092

KenPom

View attachment 105093

Any site that ranks us below Kansas State should be immediately mothballed.

 

[interrobang]

As I have in previous years, I thought I would setup a centralized thread for projections of game outcomes, the final season record, and postseason prospects. I'll try to post an update to these projections after every game or at least every week. Details are below but a high-level summary includes --

Team Rankings

#46 team in the country
#8 team in the Big 12
40% chance to make the NCAA tournament

Bart Torvik

#49 team in the country
(#102 offense, #19 defense)
#10 team in the Big 12
11th team "out" of the NCAA tournament

KenPom

#62 team in the country
(#99 offense, #36 defense)
#8 team in the Big 12 (over WVU and KSU)

ESPN BPI

#35 team in the country
#10 in the Big 12 (one spot behind WVU)

Jeff Sagarin

#61 team in the country
#9 in the Big 12 (ahead of KSU)

More details for the sites that have them --

Team Rankings

View attachment 105091

Bart Torvik

View attachment 105092

KenPom

View attachment 105093

Just happened to look at BPI this morning. We are #9 in the B12, K State is 74 overall.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Just happened to look at BPI this morning. We are #9 in the B12, K State is 74 overall.

Good point. I'll update to #9 behind WVU by one spot and ahead of KSU. Didn't see them on a second page.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Always interesting to follow this. Thanks Sig!

 

[Sigmapolis]

I thought I would post two other things from Torvik before the game tonight --

(1.) Offensive production



Holmes and Kalscheur to lead the team in scoring (which is realistic) followed by Grill (which could happen if he has a good season) and Williams (umm...). I would probably say Osunniyi at 8.7 PPG is a slight disappointment if it comes true. Anyways, this spreadsheet will become rather obsolete soon.

(2.) Game-by-game results



15-14 (7-11)

+ two games in Portland unaccounted for
+ at least one game in KC
+ whatever other postseason (hopefully!)

 

[ClonesFTW]

This is a good tweet to keep in mind when looking at preseason analytics and how they are figured.

 

[CloniesForLife]

I thought I would post two other things from Torvik before the game tonight --

(1.) Offensive production

View attachment 105094

Holmes and Kalscheur to lead the team in scoring (which is realistic) followed by Grill (which could happen if he has a good season) and Williams (umm...). I would probably say Osunniyi at 8.7 PPG is a slight disappointment if it comes true. Anyways, this spreadsheet will become rather obsolete soon.

(2.) Game-by-game results

View attachment 105095

15-14 (7-11)

+ two games in Portland unaccounted for
+ at least one game in KC
+ whatever other postseason (hopefully!)

Interesting that Watson is on there but no Lipsey or King. If those are the points that Osun, Tre King and Jones average we will be in trouble but I expect their #s to be higher.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Interesting that Watson is on there but now Lipsey or King. If those are the points that Osun, Tre King and Jones average we will be in trouble but I expect their #s to be higher.

The contribution of freshmen is based on some simple parameters like their recruiting rankings and their height for their position. Watson is a "project" but does have the highest rankings of the three. Torvik's projections are not "sensitive" enough to realize (1.) Lipsey was ranked highly before an injury that came so late in his high school/AAU career that he didn't have enough time to rebuild his rankings and (2.) there is such a significant positional need at PG with Williams down that Lipsey is going to play a lot of minutes early.

 

[mjdivine]

Any site that ranks us below Kansas State should be immediately mothballed.

It's because Torvik's model is predicting a good year for Keyontae Johnson, his top-rated player in the conference for the preseason. Not saying that's right or wrong, but that's why they're above us at this point.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It's because Torvik's model is predicting a good year for Keyontae Johnson, his top-rated player in the conference for the preseason. Not saying that's right or wrong, but that's why they're above us at this point.
View attachment 105097

It would be pretty wild/awesome if Osunniyi got first-team all-Big 12 at center based on that.

He's the highest-ranked true big man on there.

 

[mjdivine]

It would be pretty wild/awesome if Osunniyi got first-team all-Big 12 at center based on that.

He's the highest-ranked true big man on there.

If he's able to open up his offensive game the way Otz has said he can, then look out.

 

[surly]

Any site that ranks us below Kansas State should be immediately mothballed.

Just like football, be careful, boys.

 

[Sigmapolis]

That was a good win last night. The "spread" on Torvik was 26.1 points but they won by 49. That being said, I think the computer projection below is overreacting based on a small sample size. I'll believe it more after a few games and after seeing them play some real teams out in Portland this month.

 

[alexssdean12]

That was a good win last night. The "spread" on Torvik was 26.1 points but they won by 49. That being said, I think the computer projection below is overreacting based on a small sample size. I'll believe it more after a few games and after seeing them play some real teams out in Portland this month.

View attachment 105128

Would 18-11 get you in the tournament at large? Wasn't the lowest at large team to make it tied at 19 wins?

 

[cyfan92]

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Taking out pre-season bias, we are #13 in the country on Torvik.

 

[Sigmapolis]

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Taking out pre-season bias, we are #13 in the country on Torvik.

I am glad Torvik has that feature. I will be curious to see what it shows without the preseason bias written into the model after the Portland games, though. That's the true opening test for this team.

 

[cyfan92]

Just a brutal conference slate. Nearly every game is Q1.

6 Q1-A games projected. That is as many TOTAL Q1 games for TOE in 2021/22

 

[Sigmapolis]

After crushing IUPUI and NC A&T, the computer rankings really like the Cyclones. I know a more sober assessment would say beating two bad teams by tremendous margins doesn't mean a lot, and that is a correct assessment, but the computers are going on what they have to work with after two games. Beating two cupcakes by ~40 when you were expected to win by ~20 and being monsters on defense boosts your net efficiency ratings in the computers, which is probably why this has moved up so much compared to last time --



Torvik has Iowa State up to #34 including preseason effects and #4 if only this season --



No, I don't think Iowa State is the #4 team in the country. I think that is more of a testament to the program culture of taking every opponent and every possession (especially on defense) very seriously. I would imagine lots of teams choose to just cruise and relax against the IUPUI types of the world.

Even the more modest version of the model that includes data from last year and the preseason is more generous to the Cyclones right now. They've gone from off the bubble to a #9 seed --



We have a long way to go. Portland is going to tell us a lot about how real this team is.

 

[cyfan92]

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Up to #4 in the nation on Torvik when filtering out pre-season bias. To no ones surprise, Jaz is the 15th ranked analytical player of the year after 2 games. #2 ranked player in the conference after Baylor's 5 star PG.

https://www.barttorvik.com/poy.php

T-Rank MVP - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

www.barttorvik.com

Massive wins over #356 and #251 will do this